Although seasonal variation has a known influence on the transmission of several respiratory viral infections, its role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains unclear. While there is a sizable and growing literature on environmental drivers of COVID-19 transmission, recent reviews have highlighted conflicting and inconclusive findings. This indeterminacy partly owes to the fact that seasonal variation relates to viral transmission by a complicated web of causal pathways, including many interacting biological and behavioural factors. Since analyses of specific factors cannot determine the aggregate strength of seasonal forcing, we sidestep the challenge of disentangling various possible causal paths in favor of a holistic approach. We model seasonality as a sinusoidal variation in transmission and infer a single Bayesian estimate of the overall seasonal effect. By extending two state-of-the-art models of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects and their datasets covering 143 regions in temperate Europe, we are able to adjust our estimates for the role of both NPIs and mobility patterns in reducing transmission. We find strong seasonal patterns, consistent with a reduction in the time-varying reproduction number R(t) (the expected number of new infections generated by an infectious individual at time t) of 42.1% (95% CI: 24.7%-53.4%) from the peak of winter to the peak of summer. These results imply that the seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is comparable in magnitude to the most effective individual NPIs but less than the combined effect of multiple interventions.

To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art NPI effectiveness models and propose 6 variants that make different structural assumptions. In particular, we investigate how well NPI effectiveness estimates generalise to unseen countries, and their sensitivity to unobserved factors. Models which account for noise in disease transmission compare favourably. We further evaluate how robust estimates are to different choices of epidemiological parameters and data. Focusing on models that assume transmission noise, we find that previously published results are robust across these choices and across different models. Finally, we mathematically ground the interpretation of NPI effectiveness estimates when certain common assumptions do not hold.

We present LemmaTag, a featureless neural network architecture that jointly generates part-of-speech tags and lemmas for sentences by using bidirectional RNNs with characterlevel and word-level embeddings.We demonstrate that both tasks benefit from sharing the encoding part of the network, predicting tag subcategories, and using the tagger output as an input to the lemmatizer.We evaluate our model across several languages with complex morphology, which surpasses state-of-the-art accuracy in both part-of-speech tagging and lemmatization in Czech, German, and Arabic.

Powerful results from the theory of integer programming have recently led to substantial advances in parameterized complexity. However, our perception is that, except for Lenstra's algorithm for solving integer linear programming in fixed dimension, there is still little understanding in the parameterized complexity community of the strengths and limitations of the available tools. This is understandable: it is often difficult to infer exact runtimes or even the distinction between FPT and XP algorithms, and some knowledge is simply unwritten folklore in a different community. We wish to make a step in remedying this situation. To that end, we first provide an easy to navigate quick reference guide of integer programming algorithms from the perspective of parameterized complexity. Then, we show their applications in three case studies, obtaining FPT algorithms with runtime f(k) poly(n). We focus on: - Modeling: since the algorithmic results follow by applying existing algorithms to new models, we shift the focus from the complexity result to the modeling result, highlighting common patterns and tricks which are used. - Optimality program: after giving an FPT algorithm, we are interested in reducing the dependence on the parameter; we show which algorithms and tricks are often useful for speed-ups. - Minding the poly(n): reducing f(k) often has the unintended consequence of increasing poly(n); so we highlight the common trade-offs and show how to get the best of both worlds. Specifically, we consider graphs of bounded neighborhood diversity which are in a sense the simplest of dense graphs, and we show several FPT algorithms for Capacitated Dominating Set, Sum Coloring, and Max-q-Cut by modeling them as convex programs in fixed dimension, n-fold integer programs, bounded dual treewidth programs, and indefinite quadratic programs in fixed dimension.

We study sorting of permutations by random swaps if the comparison operator is noisy. The noise is not associated with the underlying fitness but is inherent to the comparison operator. This type of fitness-independent noise has not been studied before in the community but is prototypical for comparison-based evolutionary algorithms, which often do not need to compute or approximate explicit fitness values. As quality measure, we compute the average fitness of the stationary distribution. To measure runtime, we compute the minimal number of steps after which the expected fitness approximates the average fitness of the stationary distribution.