Probabilistic verification problems of neural networks are concerned with formally analysing the output distribution of a neural network under a probability distribution of the inputs. Examples of probabilistic verification problems include verifying the demographic parity fairness notion or quantifying the safety of a neural network. We present a new algorithm for solving probabilistic verification problems of neural networks based on an algorithm for computing and iteratively refining lower and upper bounds on probabilities over the outputs of a neural network. By applying state-of-the-art bound propagation and branch and bound techniques from non-probabilistic neural network verification, our algorithm significantly outpaces existing probabilistic verification algorithms, reducing solving times for various benchmarks from the literature from tens of minutes to tens of seconds. Furthermore, our algorithm compares favourably even to dedicated algorithms for restricted probabilistic verification problems. We complement our empirical evaluation with a theoretical analysis, proving that our algorithm is sound and, under mildly restrictive conditions, also complete when using a suitable set of heuristics.

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.

We propose a new Q-learning variant, called 2RA Q-learning, that addresses some weaknesses of existing Q-learning methods in a principled manner. One such weakness is an underlying estimation bias which cannot be controlled and often results in poor performance. We propose a distributionally robust estimator for the maximum expected value term, which allows us to precisely control the level of estimation bias introduced. The distributionally robust estimator admits a closed-form solution such that the proposed algorithm has a computational cost per iteration comparable to Watkins' Q-learning. For the tabular case, we show that 2RA Q-learning converges to the optimal policy and analyze its asymptotic mean-squared error. Lastly, we conduct numerical experiments for various settings, which corroborate our theoretical findings and indicate that 2RA Q-learning often performs better than existing methods.

This work studies discrete-time discounted Markov decision processes with continuous state and action spaces and addresses the inverse problem of inferring a cost function from observed optimal behavior. We first consider the case in which we have access to the entire expert policy and characterize the set of solutions to the inverse problem by using occupation measures, linear duality, and complementary slackness conditions. To avoid trivial solutions and ill-posedness, we introduce a natural linear normalization constraint. This results in an infinite-dimensional linear feasibility problem, prompting a thorough analysis of its properties. Next, we use linear function approximators and adopt a randomized approach, namely the scenario approach and related probabilistic feasibility guarantees, to derive $\varepsilon$-optimal solutions for the inverse problem. We further discuss the sample complexity for a desired approximation accuracy. Finally, we deal with the more realistic case where we only have access to a finite set of expert demonstrations and a generative model and provide bounds on the error made when working with samples.

When training neural networks with custom objectives, such as ranking losses and shortest-path losses, a common problem is that they are, per se, non-differentiable. A popular approach is to continuously relax the objectives to provide gradients, enabling learning. However, such differentiable relaxations are often non-convex and can exhibit vanishing and exploding gradients, making them (already in isolation) hard to optimize. Here, the loss function poses the bottleneck when training a deep neural network. We present Newton Losses, a method for improving the performance of existing hard to optimize losses by exploiting their second-order information via their empirical Fisher and Hessian matrices. Instead of training the neural network with second-order techniques, we only utilize the loss function's second-order information to replace it by a Newton Loss, while training the network with gradient descent. This makes our method computationally efficient. We apply Newton Losses to eight differentiable algorithms for sorting and shortest-paths, achieving significant improvements for less-optimized differentiable algorithms, and consistent improvements, even for well-optimized differentiable algorithms.

Counterexample-guided repair aims at creating neural networks with mathematical safety guarantees, facilitating the application of neural networks in safety-critical domains. However, whether counterexample-guided repair is guaranteed to terminate remains an open question. We approach this question by showing that counterexample-guided repair can be viewed as a robust optimisation algorithm. While termination guarantees for neural network repair itself remain beyond our reach, we prove termination for more restrained machine learning models and disprove termination in a general setting. We empirically study the practical implications of our theoretical results, demonstrating the suitability of common verifiers and falsifiers for repair despite a disadvantageous theoretical result. Additionally, we use our theoretical insights to devise a novel algorithm for repairing linear regression models based on quadratic programming, surpassing existing approaches.

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this analysis, we then propose new end-to-end learning algorithms for training decision maps that output solutions of empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization problems, two dominant modeling paradigms in optimization under uncertainty. Numerical results for a synthetic newsvendor problem illustrate the key differences between alternative training schemes. We also investigate an economic dispatch problem based on real data to showcase the impact of the neural network architecture of the decision maps on their test performance.

We study a stochastic program where the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters is unknown and only indirectly observed via finitely many correlated samples generated by an unknown Markov chain with $d$ states. We propose a data-driven distributionally robust optimization model to estimate the problem’s objective function and optimal solution. By leveraging results from large deviations theory, we derive statistical guarantees on the quality of these estimators. The underlying worst-case expectation problem is nonconvex and involves $\mathcal O(d^2)$ decision variables. Thus, it cannot be solved efficiently for large $d$. By exploiting the structure of this problem, we devise a customized Frank-Wolfe algorithm with convex direction-finding subproblems of size $\mathcal O(d)$. We prove that this algorithm finds a stationary point efficiently under mild conditions. The efficiency of the method is predicated on a dimensionality reduction enabled by a dual reformulation. Numerical experiments indicate that our approach has better computational and statistical properties than the state-of-the-art methods.

Training models that perform well under distribution shifts is a central challenge in machine learning. In this paper, we introduce a modeling framework where, in addition to training data, we have partial structural knowledge of the shifted test distribution. We employ the principle of minimum discriminating information to embed the available prior knowledge, and use distributionally robust optimization to account for uncertainty due to the limited samples. By leveraging large deviation results, we obtain explicit generalization bounds with respect to the unknown shifted distribution. Lastly, we demonstrate the versatility of our framework by demonstrating it on two rather distinct applications: (1) training classifiers on systematically biased data and (2) off-policy evaluation in Markov Decision Processes.

We consider the problem of estimating a probability distribution that maximizes the entropy while satisfying a finite number of moment constraints, possibly corrupted by noise. Based on duality of convex programming, we present a novel approximation scheme using a smoothed fast gradient method that is equipped with explicit bounds on the approximation error. We further demonstrate how the presented scheme can be used for approximating the chemical master equation through the zero-information moment closure method, and for an approximate dynamic programming approach in the context of constrained Markov decision processes with uncountable state and action spaces.

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal process given the full set of observations. This, in particular, leads to systematic approximations of the smoothing densities of the signal process. The paper then demonstrates how an efficient inference scheme, based on this variational approach to the approximation of the hidden states, can be designed to estimate the unknown parameters of stochastic differential equations. Two examples at the end illustrate the efficacy and the accuracy of the presented method.

We propose an iterative method for approximating the capacity of classical-quantum channels with a discrete input alphabet and a finite-dimensional output under additional constraints on the input distribution. Based on duality of convex programming, we derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the capacity. To provide an additive ε-close estimate to the capacity, the presented algorithm requires O((N ν M)M3log(N)1/2ε-1) steps, where N denotes the input alphabet size and M denotes the output dimension. We then generalize the method to the task of approximating the capacity of classical-quantum channels with a bounded continuous input alphabet and a finite-dimensional output. This, using the idea of a universal encoder, allows us to approximate the Holevo capacity for channels with a finite-dimensional quantum mechanical input and output. In particular, we show that the problem of approximating the Holevo capacity can be reduced to a multi-dimensional integration problem. For certain families of quantum channels, we prove that the complexity to derive an additive ε-close solution to the Holevo capacity is subexponential or even polynomial in the problem size. We provide several examples to illustrate the performance of the approximation scheme in practice.

We propose an iterative method for approximately computing the capacity of discrete memoryless channels, possibly under additional constraints on the input distribution. Based on duality of convex programming, we derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the capacity. The presented method requires O(M2N√log N/ε) to provide an estimate of the capacity to within ε, where N and M denote the input and output alphabet size; a single iteration has a complexity O(MN). We also show how to approximately compute the capacity of memoryless channels having a bounded continuous input alphabet and a countable output alphabet under some mild assumptions on the decay rate of the channel's tail. It is shown that discrete-time Poisson channels fall into this problem class. As an example, we compute sharp upper and lower bounds for the capacity of a discrete-time Poisson channel with a peak-power input constraint.

We propose an iterative method for efficiently approximating the capacity of discrete memoryless channels, possibly having additional constraints on the input distribution. Based on duality of convex programming, we derive explicit upper and lower bounds for the capacity. To find an ε-approximation of the capacity, in case of no additional input constraints, the presented method has a computational complexity O(1 over εM2N√logN), where N and M denote the input and output alphabet size, and a single iteration has a complexity O(MN).

We present a new algorithm, based on duality of convex programming and the specific structure of the channel capacity problem, to iteratively construct upper and lower bounds for the capacity of memoryless channels having continuous input and countable output alphabets. Under a mild assumption on the decay rate of the channel's tail, explicit bounds for the approximation error are provided. We demonstrate the applicability of our result on the discrete-time Poisson channel having a peak-power input constraint.