MOTIVATION: In predicting HIV therapy outcomes, a critical clinical question is whether using historical information can enhance predictive capabilities compared with current or latest available data analysis. This study analyses whether historical knowledge, which includes viral mutations detected in all genotypic tests before therapy, their temporal occurrence, and concomitant viral load measurements, can bring improvements. We introduce a method to weigh mutations, considering the previously enumerated factors and the reference mutation-drug Stanford resistance tables. We compare a model encompassing history (H) with one not using this information (NH). RESULTS: The H-model demonstrates superior discriminative ability, with a higher ROC-AUC score (76.34%) than the NH-model (74.98%). Wilcoxon test results confirm significant improvement of predictive accuracy for treatment outcomes through incorporating historical information. The increased performance of the H-model might be attributed to its consideration of latent HIV reservoirs, probably obtained when leveraging historical information. The findings emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in acquiring mutations. However, our result also shows that prediction accuracy remains relatively high even when no historical information is available. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: This analysis was conducted using the Euresist Integrated DataBase (EIDB). For further validation, we encourage reproducing this study with the latest release of the EIDB, which can be accessed upon request through the Euresist Network.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical data's confidential nature often limits the development of machine learning models in healthcare. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) can synthesise realistic datasets, but suffer from mode collapse, resulting in low diversity and bias towards majority demographics and common clinical practices. This work proposes an extension to the classic GAN framework that includes a variational autoencoder (VAE) and an external memory mechanism to overcome these limitations and generate synthetic data accurately describing imbalanced class distributions commonly found in clinical variables. METHODS: The proposed method generated a synthetic dataset related to antiretroviral therapy for human immunodeficiency virus (ART for HIV). We evaluated it based on five metrics: (1) accurately representing imbalanced class distribution; (2) the realism of the individual variables; (3) the realism among variables; (4) patient disclosure risk; and (5) the utility of the generated dataset for developing downstream machine learning models. RESULTS: The proposed method overcomes the issue of mode collapse and generates a synthetic dataset that accurately describes imbalanced class distributions commonly found in clinical variables. The generated data has a patient disclosure risk of 0.095%, lower than the 9% threshold stated by Health Canada and the European Medicines Agency, making it suitable for distribution to the research community with high security. The generated data also has high utility, indicating the potential of the proposed method to enable the development of downstream machine learning algorithms for healthcare applications using synthetic data. CONCLUSION: Our proposed extension to the classic GAN framework, which includes a VAE and an external memory mechanism, represents a promising approach towards generating synthetic data that accurately describe imbalanced class distributions commonly found in clinical variables. This method overcomes the limitations of GANs and creates more realistic datasets with higher patient cohort diversity, facilitating the development of downstream machine learning algorithms for healthcare applications.

MOTIVATION: A key process in anti-viral adaptive immunity is that the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) system presents epitopes as major histocompatibility complex I (MHC I) protein-peptide complexes on cell surfaces and in this way alerts CD8+ cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs). This pathway exerts strong selection pressure on viruses, favoring viral mutants that escape recognition by the HLA/CTL system. Naturally, such immune escape mutations often emerge in highly variable viruses, e.g. HIV or HBV, as HLA-associated mutations (HAMs), specific to the hosts MHC I proteins. The reliable identification of HAMs is not only important for understanding viral genomes and their evolution, but it also impacts the development of broadly effective anti-viral treatments and vaccines against variable viruses. By their very nature, HAMs are amenable to detection by statistical methods in paired sequence/HLA data. However, HLA alleles are very polymorphic in the human host population which makes the available data relatively sparse and noisy. Under these circumstances, one way to optimize HAM detection is to integrate all relevant information in a coherent model. Bayesian inference offers a principled approach to achieve this. RESULTS: We present a new Bayesian regression model for the detection of HAMs that integrates a sparsity-inducing prior, epitope predictions and phylogenetic bias assessment, and that yields easily interpretable quantitative information on HAM candidates. The model predicts experimentally confirmed HAMs as having high posterior probabilities, and it performs well in comparison to state-of-the-art models for several datasets from individuals infected with HBV, HDV and HIV. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The source code of this software is available at https://github.com/HAMdetector/Escape.jl under a permissive MIT license. The data underlying this article were provided by permission. Data will be shared on request to the corresponding author with permission of the respective co-authors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

SUMMARY: RegaDB is a free and open source data management and analysis environment for infectious diseases. RegaDB allows clinicians to store, manage and analyse patient data, including viral genetic sequences. Moreover, RegaDB provides researchers with a mechanism to collect data in a uniform format and offers them a canvas to make newly developed bioinformatics tools available to clinicians and virologists through a user friendly interface. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Source code, binaries and documentation are available on http://rega.kuleuven.be/cev/regadb. RegaDB is written in the Java programming language, using a web-service-oriented architecture.

The relationship of HIV tropism with disease progression and the recent development of CCR5-blocking drugs underscore the importance of monitoring virus coreceptor usage. As an alternative to costly phenotypic assays, computational methods aim at predicting virus tropism based on the sequence and structure of the V3 loop of the virus gp120 protein. Here we present a numerical descriptor of the V3 loop encoding its physicochemical and structural properties. The descriptor allows for structure-based prediction of HIV tropism and identification of properties of the V3 loop that are crucial for coreceptor usage. Use of the proposed descriptor for prediction results in a statistically significant improvement over the prediction based solely on V3 sequence with 3 percentage points improvement in AUC and 7 percentage points in sensitivity at the specificity of the 11/25 rule (95%). We additionally assessed the predictive power of the new method on clinically derived 'bulk' sequence data and obtained a statistically significant improvement in AUC of 3 percentage points over sequence-based prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrated the capacity of our method to predict therapy outcome by applying it to 53 samples from patients undergoing Maraviroc therapy. The analysis of structural features of the loop informative of tropism indicates the importance of two loop regions and their physicochemical properties. The regions are located on opposite strands of the loop stem and the respective features are predominantly charge-, hydrophobicity- and structure-related. These regions are in close proximity in the bound conformation of the loop potentially forming a site determinant for the coreceptor binding. The method is available via server under http://structure.bioinf.mpi-inf.mpg.de/.

MOTIVATION: Optimizing HIV therapies is crucial since the virus rapidly develops mutations to evade drug pressure. Recent studies have shown that genotypic information might not be sufficient for the design of therapies and that other clinical and demographical factors may play a role in therapy failure. This study is designed to assess the improvement in prediction achieved when such information is taken into account. We use these factors to generate a prediction engine using a variety of machine learning methods and to determine which clinical conditions are most misleading in terms of predicting the outcome of a therapy. RESULTS: Three different machine learning techniques were used: generative-discriminative method, regression with derived evolutionary features, and regression with a mixture of effects. All three methods had similar performances with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.77. A set of three similar engines limited to genotypic information only achieved an AUC of 0.75. A straightforward combination of the three engines consistently improves the prediction, with significantly better prediction when the full set of features is employed. The combined engine improves on predictions obtained from an online state-of-the-art resistance interpretation system. Moreover, engines tend to disagree more on the outcome of failure therapies than regarding successful ones. Careful analysis of the differences between the engines revealed those mutations and drugs most closely associated with uncertainty of the therapy outcome. AVAILABILITY: The combined prediction engine will be available from July 2008, see http://engine.euresist.org.

SUMMARY: Mixture models of mutagenetic trees constitute a class of probabilistic models for describing evolutionary processes that are characterized by the accumulation of permanent genetic changes. They have been applied to model the accumulation of chromosomal gains and losses in tumor development and the development of drug resistance-associated mutations in the HIV genome.Mtreemix is a software package for estimating mutagenetic trees mixture models from observed cross-sectional data and for using these models for predictions. We provide programs for model fitting, model selection, simulation, likelihood computation and waiting time estimation. AVAILABILITY: Mtreemix, including source code, documentation, sample data files and precompiled Solaris and Linux binaries, is freely available for non-commercial users at http://mtreemix.bioinf.mpi-sb.mpg.de/

The development of drug resistance is a major obstacle to successful treatment of HIV infection. The extraordinary replication dynamics of HIV facilitates its escape from selective pressure exerted by the human immune system and by combination drug therapy. We have developed several computational methods whose combined use can support the design of optimal antiretroviral therapies based on viral genomic data.

We introduce a mixture model of trees to describe evolutionary processes that are characterized by the accumulation of permanent genetic changes. The basic building block of the model is a directed weighted tree that generates a probability distribution on the set of all patterns of genetic events. We present an EM-like algorithm for learning a mixture model of K trees and show how to determine K with a maximum likelihood approach. As a case study we consider the accumulation of mutations in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase that are associated with drug resistance. The fitted model is statistically validated as a density estimator and the stability of the model topology is analyzed. We obtain a generative probabilistic model for the development of drug resistance in HIV that agrees with biological knowledge. Further applications and extensions of the model are discussed.