Many areas of artificial intelligence, and machine learning in particular, aim at being probably correct, i.e., valid on average, rather than pursuing the idealistic goal of being provably valid for all inputs. However, AI systems could still be predictably valid, such as an imperfect robot deliverer for which we can reliably and precisely predict the task instances for which it is correct and safe, its valid operating range. “Predictable AI” is a nascent research area that explores ways of anticipating key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. “Predictable AI” is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d = 28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.24% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.58% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.94.

Pre-trained vision language models still fall short of human visual cognition. In an effort to improve visual cognition and align models with human behavior, we introduce visual stimuli and human judgments on visual cognition tasks, allowing us to systematically evaluate performance across cognitive domains under a consistent environment. We fine-tune models on ground truth data for intuitive physics and causal reasoning and find that this improves model performance in the respective fine-tuning domain. Furthermore, it can improve model alignment with human behavior. However, we find that task-specific fine-tuning does not contribute to robust human-like generalization to data with other visual characteristics or to tasks in other cognitive domains.

In AI evaluation, performance is often calculated by averaging across various instances. But to fully understand the capabilities of an AI system, we need to understand the factors that cause its pattern of success and failure. In this paper, we present a new methodology to identify and build informative instance features that can provide explanatory and predictive power to analyse the behaviour of AI systems more robustly. The methodology builds on these relevant features that should relate monotonically with success, and represents patterns of performance in a new type of plots known as ‘agent characteristic grids’. We illustrate this methodology with the Animal-AI competition as a representative example of how we can revisit existing competitions and benchmarks in AI—even when evaluation data is sparse. Agents with the same average performance can show very different patterns of performance at the instance level. With this methodology, these patterns can be visualised, explained and predicted, progressing towards a capability-oriented evaluation rather than relying on a less informative average performance score.