Large-scale administrative data is a common input in early warning systems for college dropout in higher education. Still, the terminology and methodology vary significantly across existing studies, and the implications of different modeling decisions are not fully understood. This study provides a systematic evaluation of contributing factors and predictive performance of machine learning models over time and across different student groups. Drawing on twelve years of administrative data at a large public university in the US, we find that dropout prediction at the end of the second year has a 20% higher AUC than at the time of enrollment in a Random Forest model. Also, most predictive factors at the time of enrollment, including demographics and high school performance, are quickly superseded in predictive importance by college performance and in later stages by enrollment behavior. Regarding variability across student groups, college GPA has more predictive value for students from traditionally disadvantaged backgrounds than their peers. These results can help researchers and administrators understand the comparative value of different data sources when building early warning systems and optimizing decisions under specific policy goals.

Although online courses can provide students with a high-quality and flexible learning experience, one of the caveats is that they require high levels of self-regulation. This added hurdle may have negative consequences for first-generation college students. In order to better understand and support students’ self-regulated learning, we examined a fully online Chemistry course with high enrollment (N = 312) and a high percentage of first-generation college students (65.70%). Using students’ lecture video clickstream data, we created two indicators of self-regulated learning: lecture video completion and time management. Performing a k-means clustering on these indicators uncovered four distinct self-regulated learning patterns: (1) Early Planning, (2) Planning, (3) Procrastination, and (4) Low Engagement. Early Planning behaviors were especially important for course success—they consistently predicted higher final course grades, even after controlling for important demographic variables. Interestingly, first-generation college students classified as Early Planners achieved at similar levels as their non-first-generation peers, but first-generation students in the Low Engagement group had the lowest average grades among students. Overall, our results show that self-regulation may be an important skill for determining first-generation students’ STEM achievement, and targeting these skills may serve as a useful way to support their specific learning needs.

Self-efficacy is an important construct for CS teachers’ professional development, because it can predict both teaching behaviors as well as student outcomes. Research has shown that teachers’ self-efficacy can be as influential as their actual level of knowledge and abilities. However, there has been very limited research on CS teachers’ self-efficacy. This study describes the development and implementation of an instrument that measures secondary school teachers’ self-efficacy in teaching computer science. Teachers attended a nine-week hybrid professional development program and completed the computer science teaching self-efficacy instrument. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the self-efficacy instrument, which can be potentially used in other CS education settings. The results also indicated that teachers’ self-efficacy in the content knowledge and pedagogical content knowledge dimensions of teaching computer science significantly increased from participating in the professional development program.