This paper studies the reliable uncapacitated facility location problem in which facilities are subject to uncertain disruptions. A two-stage distributionally robust model is formulated, which optimizes the facility location decisions so as to minimize the fixed facility location cost and the expected transportation cost of serving customers under the worst-case disruption distribution. The model is formulated in a general form, where the uncertain joint distribution of disruptions is partially characterized and is allowed to have any prespecified dependency structure. This model extends several related models in the literature, including the stochastic one with explicitly given disruption distribution and the robust one with moment information on disruptions. An efficient cutting plane algorithm is proposed to solve this model, where the separation problem is solved respectively by a polynomial-time algorithm in the stochastic case and by a column generation approach in the robust case. Extensive numerical study shows that the proposed cutting plane algorithm not only outperforms the best-known algorithm in the literature for the stochastic problem under independent disruptions but also efficiently solves the robust problem under correlated disruptions. The practical performance of the robust models is verified in a simulation based on historical typhoon data in China. The numerical results further indicate that the robust model with even a small amount of information on disruption correlation can mitigate the conservativeness and improve the location decision significantly. Summary of Contribution: In this paper, we study the reliable uncapacitated facility location problem under uncertain facility disruptions. The problem is formulated as a two-stage distributionally robust model, which generalizes several related models in the literature, including the stochastic one with explicitly given disruption distribution and the robust one with moment information on disruptions. To solve this generalized model, we propose a cutting plane algorithm, where the separation problem is solved respectively by a polynomial-time algorithm in the stochastic case and by a column generation approach in the robust case. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are validated through extensive numerical experiments. We also conduct a data-driven simulation based on historical typhoon data in China to verify the practical performance of the proposed robust model. The numerical results further reveal insights into the value of information on disruption correlation in improving the robust location decisions.

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition, caused by the body’s extreme response to an infection. In the United States, 1.7 million cases of sepsis occur annually, resulting in 265,000 deaths. Delayed diagnosis and treatment are associated with higher mortality rates. An exponential rise in the availability of medical data has allowed for the development of sophisticated machine learning algorithms to predict sepsis earlier than the onset. However, these models often underperform, as the training data are retrospective and do not fully capture the uncertain future. In this study, we develop a novel framework, which we refer to as MLePOMDP, to leverage and combine the underlying, high-level knowledge about sepsis progression and machine learning (ML) for classification. Specifically, we use a hidden Markov model to describe sepsis development at a high level, where the ML model makes the higher-order “observations” from temporal data. Consequently, a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model is developed to make classification decisions. We analytically establish that the optimal policy is of threshold-type, which we exploit to efficiently optimize MLePOMDP. MLePOMDP is calibrated and tested using high-frequency physiological data collected from bedside monitors. Different from past POMDP-based frameworks, MLePOMDP is developed for a prediction task using a very small state definition, produces highly interpretable results, and accounts for a novel and clinically meaningful action space. Our results show that MLePOMDP outperforms machine learning–based benchmarks by up to 8% in precision. Importantly, MLePOMDP is able to reduce false alarms by up to 28%. An additional experiment is conducted to show the generalizability of MLePOMDP to different patient cohorts. Summary of Contribution: This study develops a novel real-time decision support framework for early sepsis prediction by integrating well-known machine learning models (random forest and neural networks) with a well-established sequential decision-making model, namely, a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). The structural properties of the optimal policy are further explored and a threshold-type structure is established, which is then leveraged to develop a customized algorithm to solve the problem more efficiently. The resulting framework demonstrates the benefit of applying POMDPs to augment machine learning outputs. Specifically, the framework results in the reduction of false alarms in sepsis predictions where decisions are made in real time, hence improving the overall prediction precision.

This study generalizes the r-interdiction median (RIM) problem with fortification to simultaneously consider two types of risks: probabilistic exogenous disruptions and endogenous disruptions caused by intentional attacks. We develop a bilevel programming model that includes a lower-level interdiction problem and a higher-level fortification problem to hedge against such risks. We then prove that the interdiction problem is supermodular and subsequently adopt the cuts associated with supermodularity to develop an efficient cutting-plane algorithm to achieve exact solutions. For the fortification problem, we adopt the logic-based Benders decomposition (LBBD) framework to take advantage of the two-level structure and the property that a facility should not be fortified if it is not attacked at the lower level. Numerical experiments show that the cutting-plane algorithm is more efficient than benchmark methods in the literature, especially when the problem size grows. Specifically, with regard to the solution quality, LBBD outperforms the greedy algorithm in the literature with an up-to 13.2% improvement in the total cost, and it is as good as or better than the tree-search implicit enumeration method. Summary of Contribution: This paper studies an r-interdiction median problem with fortification (RIMF) in a supply chain network that simultaneously considers two types of disruption risks: random disruptions that occur probabilistically and disruptions caused by intentional attacks. The problem is to determine the allocation of limited facility fortification resources to an existing network. It is modeled as a bilevel programming model combining a defender’s problem and an attacker’s problem, which generalizes the r-interdiction median problem with probabilistic fortification. This paper is suitable for IJOC in mainly two aspects: (1) The lower-level attacker’s interdiction problem is a challenging high-degree nonlinear model. In the literature, only a total enumeration method has been applied to solve a special case of this problem. By exploring the special structural property of the problem, namely, the supermodularity of the transportation cost function, we developed an exact cutting-plane method to solve the problem to its optimality. Extensive numerical studies were conducted. Hence, this paper fits in the intersection of operations research and computing. (2) We developed an efficient logic-based Benders decomposition algorithm to solve the higher-level defender’s fortification problem. Overall, this study generalizes several important problems in the literature, such as RIM, RIMF, and RIMF with probabilistic fortification (RIMF-p).