Logistic regression models are widely used in the social and behavioral sciences and in high-stakes domains, due to their simplicity and interpretability properties. At the same time, such domains are permeated by distribution shifts, where the distribution generating the data changes between training and deployment. In this paper, we study a distributionally robust logistic regression problem that seeks the model that will perform best against adversarial realizations of the data distribution drawn from a suitably constructed Wasserstein ambiguity set. Our model and solution approach differ from prior work in that we can capture settings where the likelihood of distribution shifts can vary across features, significantly broadening the applicability of our model relative to the state-of-the-art. We propose a graph-based solution approach that can be integrated into off-the-shelf optimization solvers. We evaluate the performance of our model and algorithms on numerous publicly available datasets. Our solution achieves a 408x speed-up relative to the state-of-the-art. Additionally, compared to the state-of-the-art, our model reduces average calibration error by up to 36.19% and worst-case calibration error by up to 41.70%, while increasing the average area under the ROC curve (AUC) by up to 18.02% and worst-case AUC by up to 48.37%.

We consider the problem of learning fair policies for multi-stage selection problems from observational data. This problem arises in several high-stakes domains such as company hiring, loan approval, or bail decisions where outcomes (e.g., career success, loan repayment, recidivism) are only observed for those selected. We propose a multi-stage framework that can be augmented with various fairness constraints, such as demographic parity or equal opportunity. This problem is a highly intractable infinite chance-constrained program involving the unknown joint distribution of covariates and outcomes. Motivated by the potential impact of selection decisions on people’s lives and livelihoods, we propose to focus on interpretable linear selection rules. Leveraging tools from causal inference and sample average approximation, we obtain an asymptotically consistent solution to this selection problem by solving a mixed binary conic optimization problem, which can be solved using standard off-the-shelf solvers. We conduct extensive computational experiments on a variety of datasets adapted from the UCI repository on which we show that our proposed approaches can achieve an 11.6% improvement in precision and a 38% reduction in the measure of unfairness compared to the existing selection policy.

We study critical systems that allocate scarce resources to satisfy basic needs, such as homeless services that provide housing. These systems often support communities disproportionately affected by systemic racial, gender, or other injustices, so it is crucial to design these systems with fairness considerations in mind. To address this problem, we propose a framework for evaluating fairness in contextual resource allocation systems that is inspired by fairness metrics in machine learning. This framework can be applied to evaluate the fairness properties of a historical policy, as well as to impose constraints in the design of new (counterfactual) allocation policies. Our work culminates with a set of incompatibility results that investigate the interplay between the different fairness metrics we propose. Notably, we demonstrate that: 1) fairness in allocation and fairness in outcomes are usually incompatible; 2) policies that prioritize based on a vulnerability score will usually result in unequal outcomes across groups, even if the score is perfectly calibrated; 3) policies using contextual information beyond what is needed to characterize baseline risk and treatment effects can be fairer in their outcomes than those using just baseline risk and treatment effects; and 4) policies using group status in addition to baseline risk and treatment effects are as fair as possible given all available information. Our framework can help guide the discussion among stakeholders in deciding which fairness metrics to impose when allocating scarce resources.

The increasing use of machine learning in high-stakes domains – where people’s livelihoods are impacted – creates an urgent need for interpretable, fair, and highly accurate algorithms. With these needs in mind, we propose a mixed integer optimization (MIO) framework for learning optimal classification trees – one of the most interpretable models – that can be augmented with arbitrary fairness constraints. In order to better quantify the “price of interpretability”, we also propose a new measure of model interpretability called decision complexity that allows for comparisons across different classes of machine learning models. We benchmark our method against state-of-the-art approaches for fair classification on popular datasets; in doing so, we conduct one of the first comprehensive analyses of the trade-offs between interpretability, fairness, and predictive accuracy. Given a fixed disparity threshold, our method has a price of interpretability of about 4.2 percentage points in terms of out-of-sample accuracy compared to the best performing, complex models. However, our method consistently finds decisions with almost full parity, while other methods rarely do.

Over the last two decades, robust optimization has emerged as a popular means to address decision-making problems affected by uncertainty. This includes single-stage and multi-stage problems involving real-valued and/or binary decisions and affected by exogenous (decision-independent) and/or endogenous (decision-dependent) uncertain parameters. Robust optimization techniques rely on duality theory potentially augmented with approximations to transform a (semi-)infinite optimization problem to a finite program, the robust counterpart. Whereas writing down the model for a robust optimization problem is usually a simple task, obtaining the robust counterpart requires expertise. To date, very few solutions are available that can facilitate the modeling and solution of such problems. This has been a major impediment to their being put to practical use. In this paper, we propose ROC++, an open-source C++ based platform for automatic robust optimization, applicable to a wide array of single-stage and multi-stage robust problems with both exogenous and endogenous uncertain parameters, that is easy to both use and extend. It also applies to certain classes of stochastic programs involving continuously distributed uncertain parameters and endogenous uncertainty. Our platform naturally extends existing off-the-shelf deterministic optimization platforms and offers ROPy, a Python interface in the form of a callable library, and the ROB file format for storing and sharing robust problems. We showcase the modeling power of ROC++ on several decision-making problems of practical interest. Our platform can help streamline the modeling and solution of stochastic and robust optimization problems for both researchers and practitioners. It comes with detailed documentation to facilitate its use and expansion. The latest version of ROC++ can be downloaded from https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/robust-opt-cpp/ . Summary of Contribution: The paper “ROC++: Robust Optimization in C++” proposes a new open-source C++ based platform for modeling, automatically reformulating, and solving robust optimization problems. ROC++ can address both single-stage and multi-stage problems involving exogenous and/or endogenous uncertain parameters and real- and/or binary-valued adaptive variables. The ROC++ modeling language is similar to the one provided for the deterministic case by state-of-the-art deterministic optimization solvers. ROC++ comes with detailed documentation to facilitate its use and expansion. It also offers ROPy, a Python interface in the form of a callable library. The latest version of ROC++ can be downloaded from https://sites.google.com/usc.edu/robust-opt-cpp/ . History: Accepted by Ted Ralphs, Area Editor for Software Tools. Funding: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1763108. This support is gratefully acknowledged. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplementary Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2022.1209 ) or is available from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC ) at ( https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6360996 ).

Several behavioral, social, and public health interventions, such as suicide/HIV prevention or community preparedness against natural disasters, leverage social network information to maximize outreach. Algorithmic influence maximization techniques have been proposed to aid with the choice of ``peer leaders'' or ``influencers'' in such interventions. Yet, traditional algorithms for influence maximization have not been designed with these interventions in mind. As a result, they may disproportionately exclude minority communities from the benefits of the intervention. This has motivated research on fair influence maximization. Existing techniques come with two major drawbacks. First, they require committing to a single fairness measure. Second, these measures are typically imposed as strict constraints leading to undesirable properties such as wastage of resources. To address these shortcomings, we provide a principled characterization of the properties that a fair influence maximization algorithm should satisfy. In particular, we propose a framework based on social welfare theory, wherein the cardinal utilities derived by each community are aggregated using the isoelastic social welfare functions. Under this framework, the trade-off between fairness and efficiency can be controlled by a single inequality aversion design parameter. We then show under what circumstances our proposed principles can be satisfied by a welfare function. The resulting optimization problem is monotone and submodular and can be solved efficiently with optimality guarantees. Our framework encompasses as special cases leximin and proportional fairness. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real world datasets including a case study on landslide risk management demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework.

In recent years, automated data-driven decision-making systems have enjoyed a tremendous success in a variety of fields (e.g., to make product recommendations, or to guide the production of entertainment). More recently, these algorithms are increasingly being used to assist socially sensitive decisionmaking (e.g., to decide who to admit into a degree program or to prioritize individuals for public housing). Yet, these automated tools may result in discriminative decision-making in the sense that they may treat individuals unfairly or unequally based on membership to a category or a minority, resulting in disparate treatment or disparate impact and violating both moral and ethical standards. This may happen when the training dataset is itself biased (e.g., if individuals belonging to a particular group have historically been discriminated upon). However, it may also happen when the training dataset is unbiased, if the errors made by the system affect individuals belonging to a category or minority differently (e.g., if misclassification rates for Blacks are higher than for Whites). In this paper, we unify the definitions of unfairness across classification and regression. We propose a versatile mixed-integer optimization framework for learning optimal and fair decision trees and variants thereof to prevent disparate treatment and/or disparate impact as appropriate. This translates to a flexible schema for designing fair and interpretable policies suitable for socially sensitive decision-making. We conduct extensive computational studies that show that our framework improves the state-of-the-art in the field (which typically relies on heuristics) to yield non-discriminative decisions at lower cost to overall accuracy.

Fueled by algorithmic advances, AI algorithms are increasingly being deployed in settings subject to unanticipated challenges with complex social effects. Motivated by real-world deployment of AI driven, social-network based suicide prevention and landslide risk management interventions, this paper focuses on a robust graph covering problem subject to group fairness constraints. We show that, in the absence of fairness constraints, state-of-the-art algorithms for the robust graph covering problem result in biased node coverage: they tend to discriminate individuals (nodes) based on membership in traditionally marginalized groups. To remediate this issue, we propose a novel formulation of the robust covering problem with fairness constraints and a tractable approximation scheme applicable to real world instances. We provide a formal analysis of the price of group fairness (PoF) for this problem, where we show that uncertainty can lead to greater PoF. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on several real-world social networks. Our method yields competitive node coverage while significantly improving group fairness relative to state-of-the-art methods.

Quantification and standardization of concepts like risk and vulnerability are increasingly being used in high-stakes, client-facing social services, also presenting the potential for data-driven tools for decision-making in this context. These trends necessitate an understanding of the role of quantitative data in the work of street-level decision-makers in social services. We present a qualitative study of existing data practices and perceptions of potential data-driven tools in housing allocation, engaging the perspective of service providers and policymakers in homeless services in a large urban county in the United States. Our findings highlight participants' concerns around centering clients' choices and ensuring integrity in a resource-constrained, high-stakes context. We also highlight differences between the perspectives of policymakers and service providers on standardization and fairness in the decision-making process. We discuss how use of and policies around data in social services need to consider the importance of the relationships that client-facing service providers have with other workers in the organization, with their work, and with clients.

Substance use and abuse is a significant public health problem in the United States. Group-based intervention programs offer a promising means of reducing substance abuse. While effective, inappropriate intervention groups can result in an increase in deviant behaviors among participants, a process known as deviancy training. In this paper, we present GUIDE, an AI-based decision aid that leverages social network information to optimize the structure of the intervention groups.

Traditional security games concern the optimal randomized allocation of human patrollers, who can directly catch attackers or interdict attacks. Motivated by the emerging application of utilizing mobile sensors (e.g., UAVs) for patrolling, in this paper we propose the novel Sensor-Empowered security Game (SEG) model which captures the joint allocation of human patrollers and mobile sensors. Sensors differ from patrollers in that they cannot directly interdict attacks, but they can notify nearby patrollers (if any). Moreover, SEGs incorporate mobile sensors' natural functionality of strategic signaling. On the technical side, we first prove that solving SEGs is NP-hard even in zero-sum cases. We then develop a scalable algorithm SEGer based on the branch-and-price framework with two key novelties: (1) a novel MILP formulation for the slave; (2) an efficient relaxation of the problem for pruning. To further accelerate SEGer, we design a faster combinatorial algorithm for the slave problem, which is provably a constant-approximation to the slave problem in zero-sum cases and serves as a useful heuristic for general-sum SEGs. Our experiments demonstrate the significant benefit of utilizing mobile sensors.

There are over 1 million homeless youth in the U.S. each year. To reduce homelessness, U.S. Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and housing communities provide housing programs/services to homeless youth with the goal of improving their long-term situation. Housing communities are facing a difficult task of filling their housing programs, with as many youths as possible, subject to resource constraints for meeting the needs of youth. Currently, the assignment is manually done by humans working in the housing communities. In this paper, we consider the problem of assigning homeless youth to housing programs subject to resource constraints. We provide an initial abstract model for this setting and show that the problem of maximizing the total assigned youth to the programs under this model is APX-hard. To solve the problem, we non-trivially formulate it as a multiple multi-dimensional knapsack problem (MMDKP), which is not known to have any approximation algorithm. We provide a first interpretable and easy-to-use greedy algorithm with logarithmic approximation ratio for solving general MMDKP. We conduct experiments on random and realistic instances of the housing assignment settings and show that our algorithm is efficient and effective in solving large instances (up to 1 million youth).

More than 1 million homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults occur in the United States each year. These crimes are often further classified into different types based on the circumstances surrounding the crime (e.g., domestic violence, gang-related). Despite recent technological advances in AI and machine learning, these additional classification tasks are still done manually by specially trained police officers. In this paper, we provide the first attempt to develop a more automatic system for classifying crimes. In particular, we study the question of classifying whether a given violent crime is gang-related. We introduce a novel Partially Generative Neural Networks (PGNN) that is able to accurately classify gang-related crimes both when full information is available and when there is only partial information. Our PGNN is the first generative-classification model that enables to work when some features of the test examples are missing. Using a crime event dataset from Los Angeles covering 2014-2016, we experimentally show that our PGNN outperforms all other typically used classifiers for the problem of classifying gang-related violent crimes.

We consider the problem of allocating scarce security resources among heterogeneous targets to thwart a possible attack. It is well known that deterministic solutions to this problem being highly predictable are severely suboptimal. To mitigate this predictability, the game-theoretic security game model was proposed which randomizes over pure (deterministic) strategies, causing confusion in the adversary. Unfortunately, such mixed strategies typically involve randomizing over a large number of strategies, requiring security personnel to be familiar with numerous protocols, making them hard to operationalize. Motivated by these practical considerations, we propose an easy to use approach for computing strategies that are easy to operationalize and that bridge the gap between the static solution and the optimal mixed strategy. These strategies only randomize over an optimally chosen subset of pure strategies whose cardinality is selected by the defender, enabling them to conveniently tune the trade-off between ease of operationalization and efficiency using a single design parameter. We show that the problem of computing such operationalizable strategies is NP-hard, formulate it as a mixed-integer optimization problem, provide an algorithm for computing epsilon-optimal equilibria, and an efficient heuristic. We evaluate the performance of our approach on the problem of screening for threats at airport checkpoints and show that the Price of Usability, i.e., the loss in optimality to obtain a strategy that is easier to operationalize, is typically not high.

We consider the problem of dynamically allocating screening resources of different efficacies (e.g., magnetic or X-ray imaging) at checkpoints (e.g., at airports or ports) to successfully avert an attack by one of the screenees. Previously, the Threat Screening Game model was introduced to address this problem under the assumption that screenee arrival times are perfectly known. In reality, arrival times are uncertain, which severely impedes the implementability and performance of this approach. We thus propose a novel framework for dynamic allocation of threat screening resources that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the screenee arrival times. We model the problem as a multistage robust optimization problem and propose a tractable solution approach using compact linear decision rules combined with robust reformulation and constraint randomization. We perform extensive numerical experiments which showcase that our approach outperforms (a) exact solution methods in terms of tractability, while incurring only a very minor loss in optimality, and (b) methods that ignore uncertainty in terms of both feasibility and optimality.

A novel method for online tracking of the changes in the non- linearity within complex-valued signals is introduced. This is achieved by a collaborative adaptive signal processing approach by means of a hybrid filter. By tracking the dynamics of the adaptive mixing parameter within the employed hybrid filtering architecture, we show that it is possible to quantify the degree of nonlinearity within complex-valued data. Simulations on both benchmark and real world data support the approach.

A novel method for the online detection of the modality of complex-valued nonlinear and nonstationary signals is introduced. This is achieved using a convex combination of complex nonlinear adaptive filters with different transient characteristics. To facilitate the online mode of operation, the convex mixing parameter lambda within the proposed architecture is made gradient adaptive. Our focus is on the most important aspect of complex nonlinear modeling, that is, the identification of the split-complex and fully-complex nature of the signal in hand. The algorithms derived are robust and capable of tracking the changes in the modality of both benchmark and real world radar and wind complex vector fields.

A novel stable and robust algorithm for training of finite impulse response adaptive filters is proposed. This is achieved based on a convex combination of the least mean square (LMS) and a recently proposed generalised normalised gradient descent (GNGD) algorithm. In this way, the desirable fast convergence and stability of GNGD is combined with the robustness and small steady state misadjustment of LMS. Simulations on linear and nonlinear signals in the prediction setting support the analysis.