Tweet clustering for event detection is a powerful modern method to automate the real-time detection of events. In this work we present a new tweet clustering approach, using a probabilistic approach to incorporate temporal information. By analysing the distribution of time gaps between tweets we show that the gaps between pairs of related tweets exhibit exponential decay, whereas the gaps between unrelated tweets are approximately uniform. Guided by this insight, we use probabilistic arguments to estimate the likelihood that a pair of tweets are related, and build an improved clustering method. Our method Social Media Event Response Clustering (SMERC) creates clusters of tweets based on their tendency to be related to a single event. We evaluate our method at three levels: through traditional event prediction from tweet clustering, by measuring the improvement in quality of clusters created, and also comparing the clustering precision and recall with other methods. By applying SMERC to tweets collected during a number of sporting events, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information leads to state of the art clustering performance.

We consider the Hamiltonian cycle problem on a given graph G. With such a graph we can associate a family $\mathcal{F}$ of probability transition matrices of Markov chains whose entries represent the probabilities of traversing corresponding arcs of the graph. When the underlying graph is Hamiltonian, we show the transition probability matrix induced by a Hamiltonian cycle maximizes—over $\mathcal{F}$—the determinant of a matrix that is a rank-one correction of the generator matrix of a Markov chain. In the case when the graph does not possess a Hamiltonian cycle, the above maximization yields a transition matrix of a chain with a longest simple cycle (in G) comprising that chain's unique ergodic class. These problems also have analogous eigenvalue interpretations.