A universal kernel is constructed whose sections approximate any causal and time-invariant filter in the fading memory category with inputs and outputs in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. This kernel is built using the reservoir functional associated with a state-space representation of the Volterra series expansion available for any analytic fading memory filter, and it is hence called the Volterra reservoir kernel. Even though the state-space representation and the corresponding reservoir feature map are defined on an infinite-dimensional tensor algebra space, the kernel map is characterized by explicit recursions that are readily computable for specific datasets when employed in estimation problems using the representer theorem. The empirical performance of the Volterra reservoir kernel is showcased and compared to other standard static and sequential kernels in a multidimensional and highly nonlinear learning task for the conditional covariances of financial asset returns.

We devise a novel method for nowcasting implied volatility based on neural operators. Better known as implied volatility smoothing in the financial industry, nowcasting of implied volatility means constructing a smooth surface that is consistent with the prices presently observed on a given option market. Option price data arises highly dynamically in ever-changing spatial configurations, which poses a major limitation to foundational machine learning approaches using classical neural networks. While large models in language and image processing deliver breakthrough results on vast corpora of raw data, in financial engineering the generalization from big historical datasets has been hindered by the need for considerable data pre-processing. In particular, implied volatility smoothing has remained an instance-by-instance, hands-on process both for neural network-based and traditional parametric strategies. Our general *operator deep smoothing* approach, instead, directly maps observed data to smoothed surfaces. We adapt the graph neural operator architecture to do so with high accuracy on ten years of raw intraday S&P 500 options data, using a single model instance. The trained operator adheres to critical no-arbitrage constraints and is robust with respect to subsampling of inputs (occurring in practice in the context of outlier removal). We provide extensive historical benchmarks and showcase the generalization capability of our approach in a comparison with classical neural networks and SVI, an industry standard parametrization for implied volatility. The operator deep smoothing approach thus opens up the use of neural networks on large historical datasets in financial engineering.

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. Through extensive numerical experiments on tabular datasets for both regression and classification, we show that RFRBoost significantly outperforms RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets in the small- to medium-scale regime where RFNNs are typically applied. Moreover, RFRBoost offers substantial computational benefits, and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.

The Mahalanobis distance is a classical tool used to measure the covariance-adjusted distance between points in $\mathbb{R}^d$. In this work, we extend the concept of Mahalanobis distance to separable Banach spaces by reinterpreting it as a Cameron-Martin norm associated with a probability measure. This approach leads to a basis-free, data-driven notion of anomaly distance through the so-called variance norm, which can naturally be estimated using empirical measures of a sample. Our framework generalizes the classical $\mathbb{R}^d$, functional $(L^2[0,1])^d$, and kernelized settings; importantly, it incorporates non-injective covariance operators. We prove that the variance norm is invariant under invertible bounded linear transformations of the data, extending previous results which are limited to unitary operators. In the Hilbert space setting, we connect the variance norm to the RKHS of the covariance operator, and establish consistency and convergence results for estimation using empirical measures with Tikhonov regularization. Using the variance norm, we introduce the notion of a kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance, and study some of its finite-sample concentration properties. In an empirical study on 12 real-world data sets, we demonstrate that the kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance outperforms the traditional kernelized Mahalanobis distance for multivariate time series novelty detection, using state-of-the-art time series kernels such as the signature, global alignment, and Volterra reservoir kernels.

Universal approximation theorems are the foundations of classical neural networks, providing theoretical guarantees that the latter are able to approximate maps of interest. Recent results have shown that this can also be achieved in a quantum setting, whereby classical functions can be approximated by parameterized quantum circuits. We provide here precise error bounds for specific classes of functions and extend these results to the interesting new setup of randomized quantum circuits, mimicking classical reservoir neural networks. Our results show in particular that a quantum neural network with ${\mathcal {O}}(\varepsilon ^{-2})$ weights and ${\mathcal {O}} (\lceil \log _{2}(\varepsilon ^{-1})\rceil)$ qubits suffices to achieve approximation error $\varepsilon \gt 0$ when approximating functions with integrable Fourier transforms.

This article investigates the use of random feature neural networks for learning Kolmogorov partial (integro-)differential equations associated to Black-Scholes and more general exponential Lévy models. Random feature neural networks are single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks in which the hidden weights are randomly generated and only the output weights are trainable. This makes training particularly simple, but (a priori) reduces expressivity. Interestingly, this is not the case for certain Black-Scholes type PDEs, as we show here. We derive bounds for the prediction error of random neural networks for learning sufficiently non-degenerate Black-Scholes type models. A full error analysis - bounding the approximation, generalization and optimization error of the algorithm - is provided and it is shown that the derived bounds do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We also investigate an application of these results to basket options and validate the bounds numerically. These results prove that neural networks are able to learn solutions to suitable Black-Scholes type PDEs without the curse of dimensionality. In addition, this provides an example of a relevant learning problem in which random feature neural networks are provably efficient.

A new explanation of the geometric nature of the reservoir computing (RC) phenomenon is presented. RC is understood in the literature as the possibility of approximating input-output systems with randomly chosen recurrent neural systems and a trained linear readout layer. Light is shed on this phenomenon by constructing what is called strongly universal reservoir systems as random projections of a family of state-space systems that generate Volterra series expansions. This procedure yields a state-affine reservoir system with randomly generated coefficients in a dimension that is logarithmically reduced with respect to the original system. This reservoir system is able to approximate any element in the fading memory filters class just by training a different linear readout for each different filter. Explicit expressions for the probability distributions needed in the generation of the projected reservoir system are stated, and bounds for the committed approximation error are provided.

Echo state networks (ESNs) have been recently proved to be universal approximants for input/output systems with respect to various Lp-type criteria. When 1≤p<∞, only p-integrability hypotheses need to be imposed, while in the case p=∞ a uniform boundedness hypotheses on the inputs is required. This note shows that, in the last case, a universal family of ESNs can be constructed that contains exclusively elements that have the echo state and the fading memory properties. This conclusion could not be drawn with the results and methods available so far in the literature.

The universal approximation properties with respect to Lp-type criteria of three important families of reservoir computers with stochastic discrete-time semi-infinite inputs are shown. First, it is proven that linear reservoir systems with either polynomial or neural network readout maps are universal. More importantly, it is proven that the same property holds for two families with linear readouts, namely, trigonometric state-affine systems and echo state networks, which are the most widely used reservoir systems in applications. The linearity in the readouts is a key feature in supervised machine learning applications. It guarantees that these systems can be used in high-dimensional situations and in the presence of large data sets. The Lpcriteria used in this paper allow the formulation of universality results that do not necessarily impose almost sure uniform boundedness in the inputs or the fading memory property in the filter that needs to be approximated.

Ultra-wideband (UWB) localization is a recent technology that promises to outperform many indoor localization methods currently available. Yet, non-line-of-sight (NLOS) positioning scenarios can create large biases in the time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) measurements, and must be addressed with accurate measurement models in order to avoid significant localization errors. In this work, we first develop an efficient, closed-form TDOA error model and analyze its estimation characteristics by calculating the Cramér-Rao lower bound (CRLB). We subsequently detail how an online Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is adopted to find an elegant formalism for the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters. We perform real experiments on a mobile robot equipped with an UWB emitter, and show that the online estimation algorithm leads to excellent localization performance due to its ability to adapt to the varying NLOS path conditions over time.