Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings—extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline—serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

We present a neural network framework for learning a survival model to predict a time-to-event outcome while simultaneously learning a topic model that reveals feature relationships. In particular, we model each subject as a distribution over "topics", where a topic could, for instance, correspond to an age group, a disorder, or a disease. The presence of a topic in a subject means that specific clinical features are more likely to appear for the subject. Topics encode information about related features and are learned in a supervised manner to predict a time-to-event outcome. Our framework supports combining many different topic and survival models; training the resulting joint survival-topic model readily scales to large datasets using standard neural net optimizers with minibatch gradient descent. For example, a special case is to combine LDA with a Cox model, in which case a subject's distribution over topics serves as the input feature vector to the Cox model. We explain how to address practical implementation issues that arise when applying these neural survival-supervised topic models to clinical data, including how to visualize results to assist clinical interpretation. We study the effectiveness of our proposed framework on seven clinical datasets on predicting time until death as well as hospital ICU length of stay, where we find that neural survival-supervised topic models achieve competitive accuracy with existing approaches while yielding interpretable clinical topics that explain feature relationships. Our code is available at: https://github.com/georgehc/survival-topics.

There has been increasing concern within the machine learning community and beyond that Artificial Intelligence (AI) faces a bias and discrimination crisis which needs AI fairness with urgency. As many have begun to work on this problem, most existing work depends on the availability of class label for the given fairness definition and algorithm which may not align with real-world usage. In this work, we study an AI fairness problem that stems from the gap between the design of a "fair" model in the lab and its deployment in the real-world. Specifically, we consider defining and mitigating individual unfairness amidst censorship, where the availability of class label is not always guaranteed due to censorship, which is broadly applicable in a diversity of real-world socially sensitive applications. We show that our method is able to quantify and mitigate individual unfairness in the presence of censorship across three benchmark tasks, which provides the first known results on individual fairness guarantee in analysis of censored data.

Algorithmic fairness, the research field of making machine learning (ML) algorithms fair, is an established area in ML. As ML technologies expand their application domains, including ones with high societal impact, it becomes essential to take fairness into consideration during the building of ML systems. Yet, despite its wide range of socially sensitive applications, most work treats the issue of algorithmic bias as an intrinsic property of supervised learning, i.e., the class label is given as a precondition. Unlike prior studies in fairness, we propose an individual fairness measure and a corresponding algorithm that deal with the challenges of uncertainty arising from censorship in class labels, while enforcing similar individuals to be treated similarly from a ranking perspective, free of the Lipschitz condition in the conventional individual fairness definition. We argue that this perspective represents a more realistic model of fairness research for real-world application deployment and show how learning with such a relaxed precondition draws new insights that better explains algorithmic fairness. We conducted experiments on four real-world datasets to evaluate our proposed method compared to other fairness models, demonstrating its superiority in minimizing discrimination while maintaining predictive performance with uncertainty present.

Recent works in artificial intelligence fairness attempt to mitigate discrimination by proposing constrained optimization programs that achieve parity for some fairness statistic. Most assume availability of the class label, which is impractical in many real-world applications such as precision medicine, actuarial analysis and recidivism prediction. Here we consider fairness in longitudinal right-censored environments, where the time to event might be unknown, resulting in censorship of the class label and inapplicability of existing fairness studies. We devise applicable fairness measures, propose a debiasing algorithm, and provide necessary theoretical constructs to bridge fairness with and without censorship for these important and socially-sensitive tasks. Our experiments on four censored datasets confirm the utility of our approach.

There has been concern within the artificial intelligence (AI) community and the broader society regarding the potential lack of fairness of AI-based decision-making systems. Surprisingly, there is little work quantifying and guaranteeing fairness in the presence of uncertainty which is prevalent in many socially sensitive applications, ranging from marketing analytics to actuarial analysis and recidivism prediction instruments. To this end, we study a longitudinal censored learning problem subject to fairness constraints, where we require that algorithmic decisions made do not affect certain individuals or social groups negatively in the presence of uncertainty on class label due to censorship. We argue that this formulation has a broader applicability to practical scenarios concerning fairness. We show how the newly devised fairness notions involving censored information and the general framework for fair predictions in the presence of censorship allow us to measure and mitigate discrimination under uncertainty that bridges the gap with real-world applications. Empirical evaluations on real-world discriminated datasets with censorship demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

Applications of graphical models often require the use of approximate inference, such as sequential importance sampling (SIS), for estimation of the model distribution given partial evidence, i.e., the target distribution. However, when SIS proposal and target distributions are dissimilar, such procedures lead to biased estimates or require a prohibitive number of samples. We introduce ReBaSIS, a method that better approximates the target distribution by sampling variable by variable from existing importance samplers and accepting or rejecting each proposed assignment in the sequence: a choice made based on anticipating upcoming evidence. We relate the per-variable proposal and model distributions by expected weight ratios of sequence completions and show that we can learn accurate models of optimal acceptance probabilities from local samples. In a continuous-time domain, our method improves upon previous importance samplers by transforming an SIS problem into a machine learning one.

Electronic health records (EHRs) are an emerging relational domain with large potential to improve clinical outcomes. We apply two statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to the task of predicting primary myocardial infarction. We show that one SRL algorithm, relational functional gradient boosting, outperforms propositional learners particularly in the medically-relevant high recall region. We observe that both SRL algorithms predict outcomes better than their propositional analogs and suggest how our methods can augment current epidemiological practices.

Learning temporal dependencies between variables over continuous time is an important and challenging task. Continuous-time Bayesian networks effectively model such processes but are limited by the number of conditional intensity matrices, which grows exponentially in the number of parents per variable. We develop a partition-based representation using regression trees and forests whose parameter spaces grow linearly in the number of node splits. Using a multiplicative assumption we show how to update the forest likelihood in closed form, producing efficient model updates. Our results show multiplicative forests can be learned from few temporal trajectories with large gains in performance and scalability.