Abstract There has been an explosion of data collected about sports. Because such data is extremely rich and complex, machine learning is increasingly being used to extract actionable insights from it. Typically, machine learning is used to build models and indicators that capture the skills, capabilities, and tendencies of athletes and teams. Such indicators and models are in turn used to inform decision-making at professional clubs. Designing these indicators requires paying careful attention to a number of subtle issues from a methodological and evaluation perspective. In this paper, we highlight these challenges in sports and discuss a variety of approaches for handling them. Methodologically, we highlight that dependencies affect how to perform data partitioning for evaluation as well as the need to consider contextual factors. From an evaluation perspective, we draw a distinction between evaluating the developed indicators themselves versus the underlying models that power them. We argue that both aspects must be considered, but that they require different approaches. We hope that this article helps bridge the gap between traditional sports expertise and modern data analytics by providing a structured framework with practical examples.

In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making, and to inform coaching decisions. While equally relevant in soccer, the adoption of these models is held back by technical challenges arising from the low-scoring nature of the sport.

Despite the fact that objectively assessing the impact of the individual actions performed by soccer players during games is a crucial task, most traditional metrics have substantial shortcomings. First, many metrics only consider rare actions like shots and goals which account for less than 2% of all on-the-ball actions. Second, they fail to account for the context in which the actions occurred. This work summarizes several important contributions. First, we describe a language for representing individual player actions on the pitch. This language unifies several existing formats which greatly simplifies automated analysis and this language is becoming widely used in the soccer analytics community. Second, we describe our framework for valuing any type of player action based on its impact on the game outcome while accounting for the context in which the action happened. This framework enables giving a broad overview of a player's performance, including quantifying a player's total offensive and defensive contributions to their team. Third, we provide illustrative use cases that highlight the working and benefits of our framework.

Assessing the impact of the individual actions performed by soccer players during games is a crucial aspect of the player recruitment process. Unfortunately, most traditional metrics fall short in addressing this task as they either focus on rare actions like shots and goals alone or fail to account for the context in which the actions occurred. This paper introduces (1) a new language for describing individual player actions on the pitch and (2) a framework for valuing any type of player action based on its impact on the game outcome while accounting for the context in which the action happened. By aggregating soccer players' action values, their total offensive and defensive contributions to their team can be quantified. We show how our approach considers relevant contextual information that traditional player evaluation metrics ignore and present a number of use cases related to scouting and playing style characterization in the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons in Europe's top competitions.

Sports teams are nowadays collecting huge amounts of data from training sessions and matches. The teams are becoming increasingly interested in exploiting these data to gain a competitive advantage over their competitors. One of the most prevalent types of new data is event stream data from matches. These data enable more advanced descriptive analysis as well as the potential to investigate an opponent's tactics in greater depth. Due to the complexity of both the data and game strategy, most tactical analyses are currently performed by humans reviewing video and scouting matches in person. As a result, this is a time-consuming and tedious process. This paper explores the problem of automatic tactics detection from event-stream data collected from professional soccer matches. We highlight several important challenges that these data and this problem setting pose. We describe a data-driven approach for identifying patterns of movement that account for both spatial and temporal information which represent potential offensive tactics. We evaluate our approach on the 2015/2016 season of the English Premier League and are able to identify interesting strategies per team related to goal kicks, corners and set pieces.

Sports broadcasters are continuously seeking to make their live coverages of soccer matches more attractive. A recent innovation is the “highlight channel,” which shows the most interesting events from multiple matches played at the same time. However, switching between matches at the right time is challenging in fast-paced sports like soccer, where interesting situations often evolve as quickly as they disappear again. This paper presents the POGBA algorithm for automatically predicting highlights in soccer matches, which is an important task that has not yet been addressed. POGBA leverages spatio-temporal event streams collected during matches to predict the probability that a particular game state will lead to a goal. An empirical evaluation on a real-world dataset shows that POGBA outperforms the baseline algorithms in terms of both precision and recall.

This paper proposes a relational-learning based approach for discovering strategies in volleyball matches based on optical tracking data. In contrast to most existing methods, our approach permits discovering patterns that account for both spatial (that is, partial configurations of the players on the court) and temporal (that is, the order of events and positions) aspects of the game. We analyze both the men's and women's final match from the 2014 FIVB Volleyball World Championships, and are able to identify several interesting and relevant strategies from the matches.

The traditional way of obtaining models from data, inductive learning, has proved itself both in theory and in many practical applications. However, in domains where data is difficult or expensive to obtain, e.g., medicine, deep transfer learning is a more promising technique. It circumvents the model acquisition difficulties caused by scarce data in a target domain by carrying over structural properties of a model learned in a source domain where training data is ample. Nonetheless, the lack of a principled view of transfer learning so far has limited its adoption. In this paper, we address this issue by regarding transfer learning as a process that biases learning in a target domain in favor of patterns useful in a source domain. Specifically, we consider a first-order logic model of the data as an instantiation of a set of second-order templates. Hence, the usefulness of a model is partly determined by the learner's prior distribution over these template sets. The main insight of our work is that transferring knowledge amounts to acquiring a posterior over the second-order template sets by learning in the source domain and using this posterior when learning in the target setting. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates our approach to outperform the existing transfer learning techniques in terms of accuracy and runtime.

The structure of a Markov network is typically learned in one of two ways. The first approach is to treat this task as a global search problem. However, these algorithms are slow as they require running the expensive operation of weight (i.e., parameter) learning many times. The second approach involves learning a set of local models and then combining them into a global model. However, it can be computationally expensive to learn the local models for datasets that contain a large number of variables and/or examples. This paper pursues a third approach that views Markov network structure learning as a feature generation problem. The algorithm combines a data-driven, specific-to-general search strategy with randomization to quickly generate a large set of candidate features that all have support in the data. It uses weight learning, with L1 regularization, to select a subset of generated features to include in the model. On a large empirical study, we find that our algorithm is equivalently accurate to other state-of-the-art methods while exhibiting a much faster run time.