Recent empirical and theoretical studies have established the generalization capabilities of large machine learning models that are trained to (approximately or exactly) fit noisy data. In this work, we prove a surprising result that even if the true model itself is robust to adversarial examples, and the benignly overfitted model is benign in terms of the “standard” out-of-sample risk objective, this benign overfitting process can be harmful when out-of-sample data are subject to adversarial manipulation. More specifically, our main results contain two parts: (i) the min-norm estimator in overparameterized linear model always leads to adversarial vulnerability in the “benign overfitting” setting; (ii) we verify an asymptotic trade-off result between the standard risk and the “adversarial” risk of every ridge regression estimator, implying that under suitable conditions these two items cannot both be small at the same time by any single choice of the ridge regularization parameter. Furthermore, under the lazy training regime, we demonstrate parallel results on two-layer neural tangent kernel (NTK) model, which align with empirical observations in deep neural networks. Our finding provides theoretical insights into the puzzling phenomenon observed in practice, where the true target function (e.g., human) is robust against adversarial attack, while beginly overfitted neural networks lead to models that are not robust.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on domain-specific data is the dominant approach for adapting foundation models to specialized tasks. However, it has been observed that SFT models tend to forget knowledge acquired during pretraining. In vision models, ensembling a pretrained model with its fine-tuned counterpart has been shown to mitigate this issue. In this work, we demonstrate that the same holds for language models, and, more strikingly, we observe an overadaptation phenomenon: the ensemble model not only retains general knowledge from the foundation model but also outperforms the fine-tuned model even on the fine-tuning domain itself. Despite the empirical success of ensembling, a theoretical understanding of its benefits remains underexplored. We develop a formal theoretical analysis of the overadaptation phenomenon. Ensembling mitigates this by balancing two primary sources of error: bias, caused by insufficient fine-tuning, and variance, introduced by overfitting to fine-tuning data. While regularization techniques aim to address this trade-off, we show that ensembling provides a more effective solution. We analyze this phenomenon in over-parameterized linear settings and demonstrate that interpolating between pretrained and fine-tuned weights significantly improves performance. These findings offer theoretical justification for the observed advantages of model ensembling, supported by empirical experiments consistent with our analysis.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) can be formalized as a latent variable problem, where the model needs to generate intermediate reasoning steps. While prior approaches such as iterative reward-ranked fine-tuning (RAFT) have relied on such formulations, they typically apply uniform inference budgets across prompts, which fails to account for variability in difficulty and convergence behavior. This work identifies the main bottleneck in CoT training as inefficient stochastic gradient estimation due to static sampling strategies. We propose GVM-RAFT, a prompt-specific Dynamic Sample Allocation Strategy designed to minimize stochastic gradient variance under a computational budget constraint. The method dynamically allocates computational resources by monitoring prompt acceptance rates and stochastic gradient norms, ensuring that the resulting gradient variance is minimized. Our theoretical analysis shows that the proposed dynamic sampling strategy leads to accelerated convergence guarantees under suitable conditions. Experiments on mathematical reasoning show that GVM-RAFT achieves a 2-4x speedup and considerable accuracy improvements over vanilla RAFT. The proposed dynamic sampling strategy is general and can be incorporated into other reinforcement learning algorithms, such as GRPO, leading to similar improvements in convergence and test accuracy.

We propose a Monte Carlo sampler from the reverse diffusion process. Unlike the practice of diffusion models, where the intermediary updates---the score functions---are learned with a neural network, we transform the score matching problem into a mean estimation one. By estimating the means of the regularized posterior distributions, we derive a novel Monte Carlo sampling algorithm called reverse diffusion Monte Carlo (rdMC), which is distinct from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We determine the sample size from the error tolerance and the properties of the posterior distribution to yield an algorithm that can approximately sample the target distribution with any desired accuracy. Additionally, we demonstrate and prove under suitable conditions that sampling with rdMC can be significantly faster than that with MCMC. For multi-modal target distributions such as those in Gaussian mixture models, rdMC greatly improves over the Langevin-style MCMC sampling methods both theoretically and in practice. The proposed rdMC method offers a new perspective and solution beyond classical MCMC algorithms for the challenging complex distributions.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected ``FalseFalseTrue" phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Additionally, our findings provide the first explanation for the mysterious phenomenon of weight space ensembles outperforming output space ensembles in OOD. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG) to mitigate the overconfidence problem, which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.