Quantitative structure–activity relationships are regression models relating chemical structure to biological activity. Such models allow to make predictions for toxicologically relevant endpoints, which constitute the target outcomes of experiments. The task is often tackled by instance-based methods, which are all based on the notion of chemical (dis-)similarity. Our starting point is the observation by Raymond and Willett that the two families of chemical distance measures, fingerprint-based and maximum common subgraph-based measures, provide orthogonal information about chemical similarity. This paper presents a novel method for finding suitable combinations of them, called adapted transfer, which adapts a distance measure learned on another, related dataset to a given dataset. Adapted transfer thus combines distance learning and transfer learning in a novel manner. In our experiments, we visualize the performance of the methods by learning curves and present a quantitative comparison for 10 and 100% of the maximum training set size to show that transfer exploiting source datasets is effective with small training datasets. Additionally, we present an approach to select the source task in a data-driven manner. The relevant experiments include an example that shows that the selection of a meaningful source task is a critical factor for transfer learning.

Many methods for quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) deliver point estimates only, without quantifying the uncertainty inherent in the prediction. One way to quantify the uncertainy of a QSAR prediction is to predict the conditional density of the activity given the structure instead of a point estimate. If a conditional density estimate is available, it is easy to derive prediction intervals of activities. In this paper, we experimentally evaluate and compare three methods for conditional density estimation for their suitability in QSAR modeling. In contrast to traditional methods for conditional density estimation, they are based on generic machine learning schemes, more specifically, class probability estimators. Our experiments show that a kernel estimator based on class probability estimates from a random forest classifier is highly competitive with Gaussian process regression, while taking only a fraction of the time for training. Therefore, generic machine-learning based methods for conditional density estimation may be a good and fast option for quantifying uncertainty in QSAR modeling.

MOTIVATION: Obtaining soluble proteins in sufficient concentrations is a recurring limiting factor in various experimental studies. Solubility is an individual trait of proteins which, under a given set of experimental conditions, is determined by their amino acid sequence. Accurate theoretical prediction of solubility from sequence is instrumental for setting priorities on targets in large-scale proteomics projects. RESULTS: We present a machine-learning approach called PROSO to assess the chance of a protein to be soluble upon heterologous expression in Escherichia coli based on its amino acid composition. The classification algorithm is organized as a two-layered structure in which the output of primary support vector machine (SVM) classifiers serves as input for a secondary Naive Bayes classifier. Experimental progress information from the TargetDB database as well as previously published datasets were used as the source of training data. In comparison with previously published methods our classification algorithm possesses improved discriminatory capacity characterized by the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of 0.434 between predicted and known solubility states and the overall prediction accuracy of 72% (75 and 68% for positive and negative class, respectively). We also provide experimental verification of our predictions using solubility measurements for 31 mutational variants of two different proteins.