Empirical researchers and decision-makers spanning various domains frequently seek profound insights into the long-term impacts of interventions. While the significance of long-term outcomes is undeniable, an overemphasis on them may inadvertently overshadow short-term gains. Motivated by this, this paper formalizes a new framework for learning the optimal policy that effectively balances both long-term and short-term rewards, where some long-term outcomes are allowed to be missing. In particular, we first present the identifiability of both rewards under mild assumptions. Next, we deduce the semiparametric efficiency bounds, along with the consistency and asymptotic normality of their estimators. We also reveal that short-term outcomes, if associated, contribute to improving the estimator of the long-term reward. Based on the proposed estimators, we develop a principled policy learning approach and further derive the convergence rates of regret and estimation errors associated with the learned policy. Extensive experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating its practical applicability.

When doing private domain marketing with cloud services, the merchants usually have to purchase different machine learning models for the multiple marketing purposes, leading to a very high cost. We present a unified user-item matching framework to simultaneously conduct item recommendation and user targeting with just one model. We empirically demonstrate that the above concurrent modeling is viable via modeling the user-item interaction matrix with the multinomial distribution, and propose a bidirectional bias-corrected NCE loss for the implementation. The proposed loss function guides the model to learn the user-item joint probability p(u,i) instead of the conditional probability p(i|u) or p(u|i) through correcting both the users and items’ biases caused by the in-batch negative sampling. In addition, our framework is model-agnostic enabling a flexible adaptation of different model architectures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework results in significant performance gains in comparison with the state-of-the-art methods, with greatly reduced cost on computing resources and daily maintenance.

Finding items with potential to increase sales is of great importance in online market. We propose to study this novel and practical problem: rising star prediction. We call these potential items Rising Star, which implies their ability to rise from low-turnover items to bestsellers in the future. Rising stars can be used to help with unfair recommendation in e-commerce platform, balance supply and demand to benefit the retailers and allocate marketing resources rationally. Although the study of rising star can bring great benefits, it also poses challenges to us. The sales trend of rising star fluctuates sharply in the short-term and exhibits more contingency caused by some external events (e.g., COVID-19 caused increasing purchase of the face mask) than other items, which cannot be solved by existing sales prediction methods. To address above challenges, in this paper, we observe that the presence of rising stars is closely correlated with the early diffusion of user interest in social networks, which is validated in the case of Taocode (an intermediary that diffuses user interest in Taobao). Thus, we propose a novel framework, RiseNet, to incorporate the user interest diffusion process with the item dynamic features to effectively predict rising stars. Specifically, we adopt a coupled mechanism to capture the dynamic interplay between items and user interest, and a special designed GNN based framework to quantify user interest. Our experimental results on large-scale real-world datasets provided by Taobao demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

A taocode is a kind of specially coded text-link on taobao.com (the world's biggest online shopping website), through which users can share messages about products with each other. Analyzing taocodes can potentially facilitate understanding of the social relationships between users and, more excitingly, their online purchasing behaviors under the influence of taocode diffusion. This paper innovatively investigates the problem of online purchasing predictions from an information diffusion perspective, with taocode as a case study. Specifically, we conduct profound observational studies on a large-scale real-world dataset from Taobao, containing over 100M Taocode sharing records. Inspired by our observations, we propose InfNet, a dynamic GNN-based framework that models the information diffusion across Taocode. We then apply InfNet to item purchasing predictions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of InfNet compared with νmofbaseline~ state-of-the-art baselines.

The e-commerce era is witnessing a rapid increase of mobile Internet users. Major e-commerce companies nowadays see billions of mobile accesses every day. Hidden in these records are valuable user behavioral characteristics such as their shopping preferences and browsing patterns. And, to extract these knowledge from the huge dataset, we need to first link records to the corresponding mobile devices. This Mobile Access Records Resolution (MARR) problem is confronted with two major challenges: (1) device identifiers and other attributes in access records might be missing or unreliable; (2) the dataset contains billions of access records from millions of devices. To the best of our knowledge, as a novel challenge industrial problem of mobile Internet, no existing method has been developed to resolve entities using mobile device identifiers in such a massive scale. To address these issues, we propose a SParse Identifier-linkage Graph (SPI-Graph) accompanied with the abundant mobile device profiling data to accurately match mobile access records to devices. Furthermore, two versions (unsupervised and semi-supervised) of Parallel Graph-based Record Resolution (PGRR) algorithm are developed to effectively exploit the advantages of the large-scale server clusters comprising of more than 1,000 computing nodes. We empirically show superior performances of PGRR algorithms in a very challenging and sparse real data set containing 5.28 million nodes and 31.06 million edges from 2.15 billion access records compared to other state-of-the-arts methodologies.