In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide, causing significant mortality. There is a mechanistic relationship between intracellular coronavirus replication and deregulated autophagosome-lysosome system. We performed transcriptome analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from COVID-19 patients and identified the aberrant upregulation of genes in the lysosome pathway. We further determined the capability of two circulating markers, namely microtubule-associated proteins 1A/1B light chain 3B (LC3B) and (p62/SQSTM1) p62, both of which depend on lysosome for degradation, in predicting the emergence of moderate-to-severe disease in COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization for supplemental oxygen therapy. Logistic regression analyses showed that LC3B was associated with moderate-to-severe COVID-19, independent of age, sex and clinical risk score. A decrease in LC3B concentration <5.5 ng/ml increased the risk of oxygen and ventilatory requirement (adjusted odds ratio: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.1-22.0; P = 0.04). Serum concentrations of p62 in the moderate-to-severe group were significantly lower in patients aged 50 or below. In conclusion, lysosome function is deregulated in PBMCs isolated from COVID-19 patients, and the related biomarker LC3B may serve as a novel tool for stratifying patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 from those with asymptomatic or mild disease. COVID-19 patients with a decrease in LC3B concentration <5.5 ng/ml will require early hospital admission for supplemental oxygen therapy and other respiratory support.

Tumor suppressor genes (TSGs) exhibit distinct evolutionary features. We speculated that TSG promoters could have evolved specific features that facilitate their tumor-suppressing functions. We found that the promoter CpG dinucleotide frequencies of TSGs are significantly higher than that of non-cancer genes across vertebrate genomes, and positively correlated with gene expression across tissue types. The promoter CpG dinucleotide frequencies of all genes gradually increase with gene age, for which young TSGs have been subject to a stronger evolutionary pressure. Transcription-related features, namely chromatin accessibility, methylation and ZNF263-, SP1-, E2F4- and SP2-binding elements, are associated with gene expression. Moreover, higher promoter CpG dinucleotide frequencies and chromatin accessibility are positively associated with the ability of TSGs to resist downregulation during tumorigenesis. These results were successfully validated with independent datasets. In conclusion, TSGs evolved specific promoter features that optimized cancer resistance through achieving high expression in normal tissues and resistance to downregulation during tumorigenesis.

MOTIVATION: Increasing amounts of whole exome or genome sequencing data present the challenge of analysing rare variants with extremely small minor allele frequencies. Various statistical tests have been proposed, which are specifically configured to increase power for rare variants by conducting the test within a certain bin, such as a gene or a pathway. However, a gene may contain from several to thousands of markers, and not all of them are related to the phenotype. Combining functional and non-functional variants in an arbitrary genomic region could impair the testing power. RESULTS: We propose a Zoom-Focus algorithm (ZFA) to locate the optimal testing region within a given genomic region. It can be applied as a wrapper function in existing rare variant association tests to increase testing power. The algorithm consists of two steps. In the first step, Zooming, a given genomic region is partitioned by an order of two, and the best partition is located. In the second step, Focusing, the boundaries of the zoomed region are refined. Simulation studies showed that ZFA substantially increased the statistical power of rare variants' tests, including the SKAT, SKAT-O, burden test and the W-test. The algorithm was applied on real exome sequencing data of hypertensive disorder, and identified biologically relevant genetic markers to metabolic disorders that were undetectable by a gene-based method. The proposed algorithm is an efficient and powerful tool to enhance the power of association study for whole exome or genome sequencing data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The ZFA software is available at: http://www2.ccrb.cuhk.edu.hk/statgene/software.html. CONTACT: [email protected] or [email protected]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Epistasis or gene-gene interaction has gained increasing attention in studies of complex diseases. Its presence as an ubiquitous component of genetic architecture of common human diseases has been contemplated. However, the detection of gene-gene interaction is difficult due to combinatorial explosion. RESULTS: We present a novel feature selection method incorporating variable interaction. Three gene expression datasets are analyzed to illustrate our method, although it can also be applied to other types of high-dimensional data. The quality of variables selected is evaluated in two ways: first by classification error rates, then by functional relevance assessed using biological knowledge. We show that the classification error rates can be significantly reduced by considering interactions. Secondly, a sizable portion of genes identified by our method for breast cancer metastasis overlaps with those reported in gene-to-system breast cancer (G2SBC) database as disease associated and some of them have interesting biological implication. In summary, interaction-based methods may lead to substantial gain in biological insights as well as more accurate prediction.