Gene signatures predictive of chemotherapeutic response have the potential to extend the reach of precision medicine by allowing oncologists to optimize treatment for individuals. Most published predictive signatures are only capable of predicting response for individual drugs, but most chemotherapy regimens utilize combinations of different agents. We propose a unified framework, called the chemogram, that uses predictive signatures to rank the relative predicted sensitivity of different drugs for individual tumors. Using this approach, providers could efficiently screen against many therapeutics to optimize chemotherapy at any time, whether it be for a treatment-naive tumor or a chemo-resistant tumor requiring a new treatment strategy. To demonstrate the utility of the chemogram, we used predictive signatures (extracted from a previously established method) in our framework to rank predicted sensitivity among drugs within cell lines. We then compared the rank order of predicted and observed response against each drug. Across most cancer types, chemogram-generated predictions were more accurate than predictions made by randomly generated gene signatures, signatures extracted from differential expression alone, and was comparable to another established method of drug response prediction. Our framework demonstrates the ability of transcriptomic signatures to not only predict chemotherapeutic response, but also correctly assign rankings of drug sensitivity on an individual basis. Additionally, scaling the chemogram to include more drugs does not compromise accuracy.

Mutant selection windows (MSWs), the range of drug concentrations that select for drug-resistant mutants, have long been used as a model for predicting drug resistance and designing optimal dosing strategies in infectious disease. The canonical MSW model offers comparisons between two subtypes at a time: drug-sensitive and drug-resistant. In contrast, the fitness landscape model with N alleles, which maps genotype to fitness, allows comparisons between N genotypes simultaneously, but does not encode continuous drug response data. In clinical settings, there may be a wide range of drug concentrations selecting for a variety of genotypes in both cancer and infectious diseases. Therefore, there is a need for a more robust model of the pathogen response to therapy to predict resistance and design new therapeutic approaches. Fitness seascapes, which model genotype-by-environment interactions, permit multiple MSW comparisons simultaneously by encoding genotype-specific dose-response data. By comparing dose-response curves, one can visualize the range of drug concentrations where one genotype is selected over another. In this work, we show how N-allele fitness seascapes allow for N * 2N-1 unique MSW comparisons. In spatial drug diffusion models, we demonstrate how fitness seascapes reveal spatially heterogeneous MSWs, extending the MSW model to more fully reflect the selection of drug resistant genotypes. Furthermore, using synthetic data and empirical dose-response data in cancer, we find that the spatial structure of MSWs shapes the evolution of drug resistance in an agent-based model. By simulating a tumor treated with cyclic drug therapy, we find that mutant selection windows introduced by drug diffusion promote the proliferation of drug resistant cells. Our work highlights the importance and utility of considering dose-dependent fitness seascapes in evolutionary medicine.

Although adaptive cancer therapy shows promise in integrating evolutionary dynamics into treatment scheduling, the stochastic nature of cancer evolution has seldom been taken into account. Various sources of random perturbations can impact the evolution of heterogeneous tumors, making performance metrics of any treatment policy random as well. In this paper, we propose an efficient method for selecting optimal adaptive treatment policies under randomly evolving tumor dynamics. The goal is to improve the cumulative "cost" of treatment, a combination of the total amount of drugs used and the total treatment time. As this cost also becomes random in any stochastic setting, we maximize the probability of reaching the treatment goals (tumor stabilization or eradication) without exceeding a pre-specified cost threshold (or a "budget"). We use a novel Stochastic Optimal Control formulation and Dynamic Programming to find such "threshold-aware" optimal treatment policies. Our approach enables an efficient algorithm to compute these policies for a range of threshold values simultaneously. Compared to treatment plans shown to be optimal in a deterministic setting, the new "threshold-aware" policies significantly improve the chances of the therapy succeeding under the budget, which is correlated with a lower general drug usage. We illustrate this method using two specific examples, but our approach is far more general and provides a new tool for optimizing adaptive therapies based on a broad range of stochastic cancer models.

Persons with germline variants in the tumor suppressor gene phosphatase and tensin homolog, PTEN, are molecularly diagnosed with PTEN hamartoma tumor syndrome (PHTS). PHTS confers high risks of specific malignancies, and up to 23% of the patients are diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and/or developmental delay (DD). The accurate prediction of these two seemingly disparate phenotypes (cancer vs. ASD/DD) for PHTS at the individual level remains elusive despite the available statistical prevalence of specific phenotypes of the syndrome at the population level. The pleiotropy of the syndrome may, in part, be due to the alterations of the key multi-functions of PTEN. Maintenance of genome integrity is one of the key biological functions of PTEN, but no integrative studies have been conducted to quantify the DNA damage response (DDR) in individuals with PHTS and to relate to phenotypes and genotypes. In this study, we used 43 PHTS patient-derived lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCLs) to investigate the associations between DDR and PTEN genotypes and/or clinical phenotypes ASD/DD vs. cancer. The dynamics of DDR of γ-irradiated LCLs were analyzed using the exponential decay mathematical model to fit temporal changes in γH2AX levels which report the degree of DNA damage. We found that PTEN nonsense variants are associated with less efficient DNA damage repair ability resulting in higher DNA damage levels at 24 hours after irradiation compared to PTEN missense variants. Regarding PHTS phenotypes, LCLs from PHTS individuals with ASD/DD showed faster DNA damage repairing rate than those from patients without ASD/DD or cancer. We also applied the reaction-diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) mathematical model, a cell growth model with a DNA damage term, to accurately describe the DDR process in the LCLs. For each LCL, we can derive parameters of the PDE. Then we averaged the numerical results by PHTS phenotypes. By performing simple subtraction of two subgroup average results, we found that PHTS-ASD/DD is associated with higher live cell density at lower DNA damage level but lower cell density level at higher DNA damage level compared to LCLs from individuals with PHTS-cancer and PHTS-neither.

MicroRNA (miRNA)-based therapies are an emerging class of targeted therapeutics with many potential applications. Ewing Sarcoma patients could benefit dramatically from personalized miRNA therapy due to inter-patient heterogeneity and a lack of druggable (to this point) targets. However, because of the broad effects miRNAs may have on different cells and tissues, trials of miRNA therapies have struggled due to severe toxicity and unanticipated immune response. In order to overcome this hurdle, a network science-based approach is well-equipped to evaluate and identify miRNA candidates and combinations of candidates for the repression of key oncogenic targets while avoiding repression of essential housekeeping genes. We first characterized 6 Ewing sarcoma cell lines using mRNA sequencing. We then estimated a measure of tumor state, which we term network potential, based on both the mRNA gene expression and the underlying protein-protein interaction network in the tumor. Next, we ranked mRNA targets based on their contribution to network potential. We then identified miRNAs and combinations of miRNAs that preferentially act to repress mRNA targets with the greatest influence on network potential. Our analysis identified TRIM25, APP, ELAV1, RNF4, and HNRNPL as ideal mRNA targets for Ewing sarcoma therapy. Using predicted miRNA-mRNA target mappings, we identified miR-3613-3p, let-7a-3p, miR-300, miR-424-5p, and let-7b-3p as candidate optimal miRNAs for preferential repression of these targets. Ultimately, our work, as exemplified in the case of Ewing sarcoma, describes a novel pipeline by which personalized miRNA cocktails can be designed to maximally perturb gene networks contributing to cancer progression.

The goal of this paper is to show the use of data mining techniques to predict the Soft Tissue Sarcoma (STS) tumor progression. STS are cancers which occur in different parts of the body such as fat, muscle and nerves. The lack of effective treatments and the difficulty in predicting treatment response make them challenging for physicians, and has likely slowed the evolution of new therapeutic agents. To design a prediction model, we propose a novel quantitative histogram-based method to analyze the difference in histograms obtained from pre and post-treatment multi-modality magnetic resonance images. Here, we used Radiomics techniques as a non-invasive method for outcome prediction. This study could help physicians identify distinctive patterns within each tumor to find more patient-specific treatments. We demonstrated the new approach on two practical tasks: tumor recurrence prediction (metastasis) and rate of necrosis prediction. Our learned model shows 87.79% prediction accuracy for metastasis with a 0.73 AUC and 82.22% prediction accuracy for necrosis with a 0.65 AUC.

Intratumoural heterogeneity is known to contribute to poor therapeutic response. Variations in oxygen tension in particular have been correlated with changes in radiation response in vitro and at the clinical scale with overall survival. Heterogeneity at the microscopic scale in tumour blood vessel architecture has been described, and is one source of the underlying variations in oxygen tension. We seek to determine whether histologic scale measures of the erratic distribution of blood vessels within a tumour can be used to predict differing radiation response. Using a two-dimensional hybrid cellular automaton model of tumour growth, we evaluate the effect of vessel distribution on cell survival outcomes of simulated radiation therapy. Using the standard equations for the oxygen enhancement ratio for cell survival probability under differing oxygen tensions, we calculate average radiation effect over a range of different vessel densities and organisations. We go on to quantify the vessel distribution heterogeneity and measure spatial organization using Ripley's L function, a measure designed to detect deviations from complete spatial randomness. We find that under differing regimes of vessel density the correlation coefficient between the measure of spatial organization and radiation effect changes sign. This provides not only a useful way to understand the differences seen in radiation effect for tissues based on vessel architecture, but also an alternate explanation for the vessel normalization hypothesis.

The increasing rate of antibiotic resistance and slowing discovery of novel antibiotic treatments presents a growing threat to public health. Here, we consider a simple model of evolution in asexually reproducing populations which considers adaptation as a biased random walk on a fitness landscape. This model associates the global properties of the fitness landscape with the algebraic properties of a Markov chain transition matrix and allows us to derive general results on the non-commutativity and irreversibility of natural selection as well as antibiotic cycling strategies. Using this formalism, we analyze 15 empirical fitness landscapes of E. coli under selection by different β-lactam antibiotics and demonstrate that the emergence of resistance to a given antibiotic can be either hindered or promoted by different sequences of drug application. Specifically, we demonstrate that the majority, approximately 70%, of sequential drug treatments with 2-4 drugs promote resistance to the final antibiotic. Further, we derive optimal drug application sequences with which we can probabilistically 'steer' the population through genotype space to avoid the emergence of resistance. This suggests a new strategy in the war against antibiotic-resistant organisms: drug sequencing to shepherd evolution through genotype space to states from which resistance cannot emerge and by which to maximize the chance of successful therapy.

Since the discovery of tumour initiating cells (TICs) in solid tumours, studies focussing on their role in cancer initiation and progression have abounded. The biological interrogation of these cells continues to yield volumes of information on their pro-tumourigenic behaviour, but actionable generalised conclusions have been scarce. Further, new information suggesting a dependence of tumour composition and growth on the microenvironment has yet to be studied theoretically. To address this point, we created a hybrid, discrete/continuous computational cellular automaton model of a generalised stem-cell driven tissue with a simple microenvironment. Using the model we explored the phenotypic traits inherent to the tumour initiating cells and the effect of the microenvironment on tissue growth. We identify the regions in phenotype parameter space where TICs are able to cause a disruption in homeostasis, leading to tissue overgrowth and tumour maintenance. As our parameters and model are non-specific, they could apply to any tissue TIC and do not assume specific genetic mutations. Targeting these phenotypic traits could represent a generalizable therapeutic strategy across cancer types. Further, we find that the microenvironmental variable does not strongly affect the outcomes, suggesting a need for direct feedback from the microenvironment onto stem-cell behaviour in future modelling endeavours.