The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series forecasting. We provide the first theoretical analysis of this time series forecasting framework. We include a comparison of sequence-to-sequence modeling to classical time series models, and as such our theory can serve as a quantitative guide for practitioners choosing between different modeling methodologies.

We study the problem of online path learning with non-additive gains, which is a central problem appearing in several applications, including ensemble structured prediction. We present new online algorithms for path learning with non-additive count-based gains for the three settings of full information, semi-bandit and full bandit with very favorable regret guarantees. A key component of our algorithms is the definition and computation of an intermediate context-dependent automaton that enables us to use existing algorithms designed for additive gains. We further apply our methods to the important application of ensemble structured prediction. Finally, beyond count-based gains, we give an efficient implementation of the EXP3 algorithm for the full bandit setting with an arbitrary (non-additive) gain.

Many structured prediction problems admit a natural loss function for evaluation such as the edit-distance or $n$-gram loss. However, existing learning algorithms are typically designed to optimize alternative objectives such as the cross-entropy. This is because a na\"{i}ve implementation of the natural loss functions often results in intractable gradient computations. In this paper, we design efficient gradient computation algorithms for two broad families of structured prediction loss functions: rational and tropical losses. These families include as special cases the $n$-gram loss, the edit-distance loss, and many other loss functions commonly used in natural language processing and computational biology tasks that are based on sequence similarity measures. Our algorithms make use of weighted automata and graph operations over appropriate semirings to design efficient solutions. They facilitate efficient gradient computation and hence enable one to train learning models such as neural networks with complex structured losses.

We present a new framework for analyzing and learning artificial neural networks. Our approach simultaneously and adaptively learns both the structure of the network as well as its weights. The methodology is based upon and accompanied by strong data-dependent theoretical learning guarantees, so that the final network architecture provably adapts to the complexity of any given problem.

In this paper, we introduce and analyze Discriminative State-Space Models for forecasting non-stationary time series. We provide data-dependent generalization guarantees for learning these models based on the recently introduced notion of discrepancy. We provide an in-depth analysis of the complexity of such models. Finally, we also study the generalization guarantees for several structural risk minimization approaches to this problem and provide an efficient implementation for one of them which is based on a convex objective.

We present a series of theoretical and algorithmic results combining the benefits of the statistical learning approach to time series prediction with that of on-line learning. We prove new generalization guarantees for hypotheses derived from regret minimization algorithms in the general scenario where the data is generated by a non-stationary non-mixing stochastic process. Our theory enables us to derive model selection techniques with favorable theoretical guarantees in the scenario of time series, thereby solving a problem that is notoriously difficult in that scenario. It also helps us devise new ensemble methods with favorable theoretical guarantees for the task of forecasting non-stationary time series.

We present a general theoretical analysis of structured prediction with a series of new results. We give new data-dependent margin guarantees for structured prediction for a very wide family of loss functions and a general family of hypotheses, with an arbitrary factor graph decomposition. These are the tightest margin bounds known for both standard multi-class and general structured prediction problems. Our guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent complexity measure, \emph{factor graph complexity}, which we show can be estimated from data and bounded in terms of familiar quantities for several commonly used hypothesis sets, and a sparsity measure for features and graphs. Our proof techniques include generalizations of Talagrand's contraction lemma that can be of independent interest. We further extend our theory by leveraging the principle of Voted Risk Minimization (VRM) and show that learning is possible even with complex factor graphs. We present new learning bounds for this advanced setting, which we use to devise two new algorithms, \emph{Voted Conditional Random Field} (VCRF) and \emph{Voted Structured Boosting} (StructBoost). These algorithms can make use of complex features and factor graphs and yet benefit from favorable learning guarantees. We also report the results of experiments with VCRF on several datasets to validate our theory.

We consider two broad families of non-additive loss functions covering a large number of applications: rational losses and tropical losses. We give new algorithms extending the Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) algorithm to both of these families of loss functions and similarly give new algorithms extending the Randomized Weighted Majority (RWM) algorithm to both of these families. We prove that the time complexity of our extensions to rational losses of both FPL and RWM is polynomial and present regret bounds for both. We further show that these algorithms can play a critical role in improving performance in applications such as structured prediction.

We present a new class of density estimation models, Structural Maxent models, with feature functions selected from possibly very complex families. The design of our models is motivated by data-dependent convergence bounds and benefits from new data-dependent learning bounds expressed in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the sub-families composing the family of features considered. We prove a duality theorem, which we use to derive our Structural Maxent algorithm. We give a full description of our algorithm, including the details of its derivation and report the results of several experiments demonstrating that its performance compares favorably to that of existing regularized Maxent. We further similarly define conditional Structural Maxent models for multi-class classification problems. These are conditional probability models making use of possibly complex feature families. We also prove a duality theorem for these models which shows the connection between these models and existing binary and multi-class deep boosting algorithms.

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy measure that can be estimated from data under some mild assumptions. We use our learning bounds to devise new algorithms for non-stationary time series forecasting for which we report some preliminary experimental results.

We present a series of algorithms with theoretical guarantees for learning accurate ensembles of several structured prediction rules for which no prior knowledge is assumed.This includes a number of randomized and deterministic algorithms devised by converting on-line learning algorithms to batch ones, and a boostingstyle algorithm applicable in the context of structured prediction with a large number of labels.We also report the results of extensive experiments with these algorithms.

We present a series of learning algorithms and theoretical guarantees for designing accurate ensembles of structured prediction tasks. This includes several randomized and deterministic algorithms devised by converting on-line learning algorithms to batch ones, and a boosting-style algorithm applicable in the context of structured prediction with a large number of labels. We give a detailed study of all these algorithms, including the description of new on-line-to-batch conversions and learning guarantees. We also report the results of extensive experiments with these algorithms in several structured prediction tasks.