When a conflict occurs, the disputants involved and interested third parties usually expect to reach the desired equilibrium. To achieve this goal, inverse graph model for conflict resolution is an effective way to make the state of interest an equilibrium by ascertaining the required preferences. However, specifying crisp cost or effort of changing preferences over states can be challenging for decision makers (DMs) and third parties. As a result, a new inverse preference optimization model using interval optimization is introduced into the graph model by considering the uncertain cost of preference adjustment. First, the preference adjustment cost with uncertainty is formulated using interval number. Then, pessimistic preference ordering and DMs’ degrees of risk tolerance are utilized to compare cost intervals. After that, an inverse preference optimization model with uncertain adjustment cost is established. Finally, an illustrative example of the bulk water export conflict in Canada is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

In this paper, algorithms for inverse engineering preferences based on observable behavior are developed. The algorithms are based on the most commonly used stability concepts in the graph model for conflict resolution methodology and function by reducing the set of possible preference rankings for each decision-maker (DM). The reduction is based on observable moves and counter-moves made by DMs. This procedure assists stakeholders in optimizing their own decision-making process based on information gathered about their opponents and can also be used to improve the modeling of strategic interactions. A simple case study is used to illustrate the applicability of the algorithms.

A novel hierarchical graph model is developed to analyze conflicts interrelated on three levels. As an extension of the two-level hierarchical graph model, this new structure contains several smaller graph models, called local graphs, nested at three levels. Decision makers (DMs), states, moves, and preference relations in the three-level hierarchical graph model (3LHGM) are defined. The interrelationships between stabilities in local graph models and the overall graph model are investigated and utilized in developing algorithms to calculate stabilities in the hierarchical graph model. This novel methodology is then illustrated using a generic model of hierarchical climate change governance disputes. Stability calculations can uncover profitable courses of action. The 3LHGM aims to provide insightful resolutions for DMs with a broader vision of the hierarchical conflict they are participating in.

A survey of the design, development and implementation of a flexible decision technology called the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is discussed for systematically investigating real world conflicts within a system of systems engineering outlook. This encompassing GMCR methodology has been constructed during the past three decades by the authors, their colleagues and students from many countries for addressing a rich range of conflict situations. GMCR can be used for studying large and small conflicts and includes methods for preference elicitation, preference uncertainty (unknown, fuzzy, grey numbers and probabilistic). Many kinds of definitions exist for possible human behavior under pure competition which can be transformed for utilization in coalition analysis. GMCR can handle emotions, attitudes, and misperceptions. Within inverse GMCR, one can calculate the preferences needed by decision makers (DMs) to reach a desirable equilibrium. Under behavioral GMCR one can ascertain the strategic thinking of DMs when the input and output are known. Decision support systems can be built for implementing the array of GMCR advancements. Future expansions of GMCR can be guided by key characteristics of actual disputes. Artificial intelligence (AI) GMCR is a promising subfield of study within GMCR.

Mixed coalition analysis approaches are developed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) for analyzing the heterogeneous multicoalitional opponents having mixed coalitional sanctions, in which some sanctioning coalitions may only invoke coalitional improvements (CIs) while others may go to any reachable states to jointly sanction a focal coalition's CIs. To accomplish this, the concept of a full coalition set is defined in which each participating decision maker (DM) is represented once either as an individual player or part of a coalition. All possible scenarios in which a full coalition set could be formed is called the universal coalition set. When calculating the stability of a specific state for a particular coalition in a given conflict, the remaining DMs form the universal coalition set whose moves have the potential to block any CIs by the focal coalition within four specified solution concepts having full participation of sanctioning opponents. To handle heterogeneous opponents with mixed CIs (MCIs), the mixed coalition analysis approach is proposed, which provides a more general coalition analysis framework than existing coalition analysis approaches. Moreover, the interrelationships among coalitional stabilities and mixed coalitional stabilities with full participation are investigated followed by their corresponding matrix representations which can significantly improve their computational efficiency and make the computer implementation possible. Finally, a case study is investigated to demonstrate how to employ the proposed mixed coalition analysis approaches to address a real-world environmental conflict.

In many conflict situations, decision-makers (DMs) integrate multiple objectives rather than considering just one objective or dimension. A multi-objective graph model (MOGM) for two DMs is proposed to balance DMs' objectives in this paper. An intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) preference (IFP) framework is developed. By combining strength of preference and IF preference, integrating multiple objectives, an IFMOGM is developed for strategic conflicts. Four IF stability definitions: IF Nash stability, IF general metarationality (IFGMR), IF symmetric metarationality (IFSMR), and IF sequential stability (IFSEQ), are introduced and the dependence of these stability solutions on weights is shown. Finally, the IFMOGM is applied to greenhouse gas emission disputes between the US and China to demonstrate that the model and methodology.

With many countries integrating the Sustainable Development Goals into their national budgetary processes, there is a need for decision support to enhance decision-making pertaining to the implications of national budgets on the Sustainable Development Goals. An approach to decision support for integrating Sustainable Development Goals' investment into resources allocation processes is proposed. Expanding on an existing values-based decision support system, the proposed framework captures synergies and trade-offs in the Sustainable Development Goals for efficient and purposeful budgetary planning. The proposed decision support system is presented and illustrated with a hypothetical example situated in Bangladesh.

Cauvery River, in the southern part of India, has experienced conflict about the right to use water for the last 130 years. Historically, the states/provinces in conflict have used the water from the river for agricultural purposes. In our research, we are developing a novel system of systems approach which takes in scenario-based methods for analyzing the conflict. We have employed four methodologies which feed into each other and overlap, namely, an expert elicitation, an integrated water resources management approach to generate the stream-flow requirements in the basin, a socio-political and economic impact approach which analyses the various relevant factors affecting the conflict in the region, and finally, a graph model to map out the progression of the conflict to potentially resolve. We present our methods and the preliminary findings in this paper.

A new hybrid preference framework of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is proposed which allows decision makers (DMs) having both unknown preference and fuzzy preference to be taken into account in conflict modeling and analysis. The novel hybrid preference structure provides DMs with a more flexible technique to express preference. It is capable of covering the unknown preference of one feasible state over another, as well as fuzzy preference. Moreover, within the new hybrid preference structure, four extension forms of unknown preference are defined for different fuzzy stability definitions. These stability definitions under the new hybrid preference can be employed to thoroughly investigate complex conflicts existing in practical applications, and can offer enhanced strategic insights regarding the conflicts. A specific real-world water diversion conflict occurring in China, which includes multiple DMs and hybrid preference, is utilized to investigate how the new hybrid preference framework of the GMCR can be conveniently applied in practice.

Within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution, the concept of coalition improvement is generalized, resulting in new definitions of Nash, general metarational, symmetric metarational, and sequential stability applicable to coalitions. To illustrate how these generalized stability definitions can be applied to a real conflict, they are used to analyze an offshore oil exploration dispute that occurred in the South China Sea in 2014. The novel approach reveals which coalitions can upset a noncooperative equilibrium or support new cooperative equilibria, and which decision makers can benefit from joining a coalition.

The fundamental design and inherent capabilities of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) to address a rich range of complex real world conflict situations are put into perspective by tracing its historical development over a period spanning more than thirty years, and highlighting great opportunities for meaningful future expansions within an era of artificial intelligence (AI) and intensifying conflict in an over-crowded world. By constructing a sound theoretical foundation for GMCR based upon assumptions reflecting what actually occurs in reality, a fascinating story is narrated on how GMCR was able to expand in bold new directions as well as take advantages of many important legacy decision technologies built within the earlier Metagame Analysis and later Conflict Analysis paradigms. From its predecessors, for instance, GMCR could take advantage of option form put forward within Metagame Analysis for effectively recording a conflict as well as preference elicitation techniques and solution concepts for defining chess-like behavior when calculating stability of states from the realm of Conflict Analysis. The key ideas outlined in the paper underlying the current and projected capabilities of GMCR include the development of four different ways to handle preference uncertainty in the presence of either transitive or intransitive preferences; a wide range of solution concepts for describing many kinds of human behavior under conflict; unique coalition analysis algorithms for determining if a given decision maker can fare better in a dispute via cooperation; tracing the evolution of a conflict over time; and the matrix formulation of GMCR for computational efficiency when calculating stability and also theoretically expanding GMCR in new directions. The basic design of a Decision Support System for permitting researchers and practitioners to readily apply the foregoing and other advancements in GMCR to tough real world controversies is discussed. Inverse engineering is mentioned as an AI extension of GMCR for computationally determining the preferences required by decision makers in order to reach a desirable state, such as a climate change agreement in which all nations significantly cut back on their greenhouse gas emissions. Although GMCR has been successfully applied to challenging disputes arising in many different fields, a simple climate change negotiation conflict between the US and China is utilized to explain clearly key concepts mentioned throughout the fascinating historical journey surrounding GMCR.

A system of systems (SoS) framework is proposed to describe the complex interactions among water, energy and food systems. Through the investigation of the key interconnections among the three systems, improving water use efficiency is considered as one entry point for this framework. Implementation steps of the framework are explained in detail. From an SoS perspective, meaningful insights for policy-making can be garnered for enhancing the security level of water, energy, and food systems at regional or national scales.

Using the observed or desired stability results of each decision maker (DM) and the equilibrium of a conflict, an algorithm is proposed that determines whether the Nash, general metarationality, symmetric metarationality or sequential stability definition best explains the observations or how to achieve the desired equilibrium. The matrix representation of the graph model for conflict resolution, normally used to determine stabilities that reflect different models of human interaction in conflict, is utilized here to keep track of available one-step moves for each DM, as well as the DMs' relative preferences among states. A key theorem involving matrix representation of graph models determines which stability types are consistent with the observations or achievement of the desired equilibrium, taking into account specified preferences of the DMs, for the case of two or more DMs. To illustrate the use of the algorithm in practice, behavioral analysis is applied to a softwood lumber dispute between Canada and the USA.

An extension of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is proposed to permit the investigation of a conflict model at the option level. The novel approach presented in this paper allows the computation of equilibrium strength and the calculation of option effectiveness in the GMCR model. The approach provides analysts with a better understanding of the options available to the decision makers (DMs) and permits the ranking of options in terms of their effectiveness. The information gained by utilizing this approach will help the DMs in ending disputes according to their preferred scenarios by selecting the options that are effective for them. As a means to evaluate this method, it is applied to a model of the conflict between China and the United States over global trade agreements.

A new technique is introduced to model misperception by participating decision makers (DMs) in a conflict having two or more DMs within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. This comprehensive approach enables one to model a conflict situation involving misperception: held by and about the focal DM and its opponents. To achieve this, DMs' options in a conflict situation are classified based on different kinds of misperception that can alter the choices of the focal DM and/or the other DMs. Furthermore, the combination of DMs' options can generate the universal set of options for the entire conflict, which can then be used to construct the universal set of states. This novel design can differentiate between the states that are recognized by all DMs and those that are recognized individually. Furthermore, eight sets of equilibria are formally defined within the construction of the first-level hypergame in graph form to provide strategic insights into the conflict and reflect the effect of DMs' misperceptions on the equilibria of the dispute.

The conflict over the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) involving China, the United States of America (USA), and Japan is analyzed within the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain strategic insights and to predict the possible compromise resolutions. The conflict starts after China proposed in October 2013 the establishment of the AIIB. The USA and Japan opposed the founding of AIIB because they were concerned that China would use the bank to set its own economic agenda and policies. The hypergame analysis of this dispute, which takes into account misperceptions, shows that the option of implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement by the USA would not result in the expected resolution as predicted by it. The insights gained by analyzing the conflict include that the TPP might be beneficial for the Chinese which is contrary to what was expected by the USA and Japan.

A conflict over the fourth party logistics development is modeled, and a stability analysis is carried out based on the graph model for conflict resolution. In this conflict, corresponding DMs and their options are identified, infeasible states of this conflict are removed, and DMs' preferences over the feasible states are estimated based on option prioritization. Then, the directed graph for the fourth party logistics conflict is generated by using the decision support system entitled GMCRplus. Based on the calculation results, the interpretation on these calculated equilibria are provided, and the evolution of the conflict is analyzed.

Panel data from the 27 provinces in China are analyzed using special kinds of regression models to ascertain the main factors influencing medical expenditures. The findings show that economic growth, government investment in health, supply of health care services and medical technology progress are the key factors affecting health care costs. The faster the economy develops and the more the government invests, the higher the medical expenses are. However, the increase of health care service supply and medical technology progress will lower the growth of medical expenditures. Surprisingly, the aging population and the level of urbanization are not the main factors influencing the growth of medical expenses. Moreover, health care is a necessary service. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to decrease health expenditures, such as to gradually perfect the public health service system especially in the countryside, to decrease direct government investment in large hospitals in urban areas, to enlarge private healthcare supplies, and to undertake more scientific research in order to meet the increasing demands for reasonable medical services in China.

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is critical to utility companies. It plays a key role in the operation of power industry. It becomes all the more important and critical with increasing penetration of renewable energy sources. Short-term load forecasting enables power companies to make informed business decisions in real-time. Demand patterns are extremely complex due to market deregulation and other environmental factors. Although there has been extensive research in the area of short-term electrical load forecasting, difficulties in implementation and lack of transparency in results has been cited as a main challenge. Deep neural architectures have recently shown their ability to mine complex underlying patterns in various domains. In our work, we present a deep recurrent neural architecture to unearth the complex patterns underlying the regional demand profiles without specific insights from the utilities. The model learns from historical data patterns. We show that deep recurrent neural network with long-short term memory architecture presents a robust methodology for accurate short term load forecasting with the ability to adapt and learn the underlying complex features over time. In most cases it matches the performance of the latest state-of-the-art techniques and even supercedes it in a few cases.

A new hybrid preference framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is proposed to facilitate modeling and analysis of conflicts involving two decision makers (DMs) with fuzzy levels of preference. The new preference structure, a hybrid of models of three-level strength of preference and fuzzy preference, provides a more flexible technique to express DMs' relative preferences among states, and is more comprehensive and flexible than existing models. One key contribution of this paper is to extend four graph model stability definitions for fuzzy preferences, consisting of fuzzy Nash stability (FR), fuzzy general metarationality (FGMR), fuzzy symmetric metarationality (FSMR), and fuzzy sequential stability (FSEQ), to the new hybrid preference structure. This extension permits the analysis of the hybrid model, including both strong and weak stabilities. The resulting modeling and analysis system can be applied to complex two-decision-maker conflicts, thereby enhancing the ability of the graph model to provide strategic insights. A specific two decision-maker conflict is utilized to illustrate the practical application of the new hybrid preference framework for GMCR.

The 1956 nationalization of the Suez Canal dispute, between Egypt and an alliance between the United States (US) and Britain, is modeled and analyzed within the paradigm of a first-level hypergame in graph form. The results reveal that Britain and US encountered a strategic surprise in the dispute on account of their failure to predict Egypt's action in nationalizing the Suez Canal. The equilibrium states of the dispute are analyzed to provide insights into the types of the misperceptions that caused the conflict, the possible decision makers' reactions after observing the equilibrium states, and the sustainability of the first-level hypergame equilibria. The analysis reveals substantial motivation for the United States and Britain to intensify the dispute to recapture the Suez Canal and to improve their situation.

A two-level carbon emission conflict is investigated using Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Chinese central government has conflict with local authorities at provincial levels regarding the implementation of new carbon emission reduction policy. As the conflict takes place in multiple regions, the governments at a higher level should form strategies to interact with governments at the lower level. The resolution of this conflict obtained by calculating the stabilities in the corresponding graph model can be used as guidance of actions for each decision maker to follow. The stabilities indicate that the central government should form distinct strategies to deal with provinces with different levels of economic development. Hierarchical graph model can provide decision makers a comprehensive understanding of the carbon emission conflict taking place at different locations.

A methodology is developed to model a decision maker's (DM's) fuzzy and/or interval fuzzy preference over feasible scenarios or states within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. This technique uses the DM's fuzzy relative importance of its preference statements and their fuzzy truth values for the feasible states in a conflict under uncertain conditions. A preference statement of a DM is a preferable combination of DM's options or courses of action. The fuzzy importance for one preference statement over another, a value in the interval [0, 1], is interpreted as the degree to which the first preference statement is more important than the second to the DM. A fuzzy truth value of a preference statement at a feasible state is a number in the interval [0, 1] that represents the degree to which the statement is true at the state. When the DM is confident in its pairwise fuzzy importance degrees over the preference statements and their fuzzy truth values at the feasible states, the methodology provides a fuzzy preference over the states. When there is an ordinary or crisp importance ordering of preference statements and when the truth values of preference statements are classical or crisp at the feasible states, the technique generates a crisp preference over the states. The methodology is illustrated using a case study.

Three approaches to better understanding conflict resolution results are discussed and applied to a trans-boundary water conflict between the United States and Canada. A decision support system, called GMCR+, is utilized to carry out the analysis and provide strategic insights. These approaches will improve and simplify the analysis process especially for larger conflict models.

An expansion to the options structure is proposed to make the option-based graph model for conflict resolution more explicitly expressive of reality. The suggested improvement provides an opportunity to replace binary (on or off) options with multi-level options, wherein the decision maker (DM) selects one out of more than two distinct levels. The new approach simplifies the representation of conflicts and facilitates the understanding of their evolution by showing, in bargaining for example, outcomes that involve partial achievement of a DM's objectives. The preferences of decision makers can now be related to the possibility of tradeoffs between (or among) options.

The impact of a water demand management plan on water users is investigated within a comprehensive cooperative water allocation model. A demand management plan is specified and incorporated into the two-step multi-period fair water allocation model. The results indicate that cooperation can yield more net benefits, and a water demand management plan is able to lead to a further increase of the aggregated net benefits. The additional net benefits can be fairly allocated among users by using a modified cooperative game. Fair sharing of additional net benefits provides a motivation for water users to implement a water demand management plan, and eventually to achieve a more productive water management.

Systems methodologies to model third-party intervention in international conflicts are developed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR). An inverse GMCR is introduced to utilize the GMCR as a negotiation tool by altering the procedure of the original framework. The methodologies presented give a better understanding of how decision makers (DMs) can be motivated to undertake certain actions within the conflict. Moreover, the inverse GMCR tackles the problem of specifying which preferences for DMs lead to a particular resolution, thereby making it easier for a mediator or other third party to influence the course of the conflict. The methodologies are applied to a real-world dispute, a complex water conflict in the Middle East.

To capture uncertainty in preferences, definitions based on grey numbers are incorporated into the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR), a realistic and flexible methodology to model and analyze strategic conflicts. A general grey number is a real number that may be a member of a discrete set of real numbers, or may fall within one or several intervals. It can represent uncertain preference of decision makers in a meaningful way. Here, a grey-based preference structure is developed and integrated with GMCR. Utilizing a number of grey-based ideas, solution concepts describing human behavior under conflict in the face of uncertain preference are defined for a conflict model. This grey-based GMCR is then applied to a generic sustainable development conflict with uncertain preferences in order to demonstrate how it can be conveniently utilized in practice.

The standard graph model for conflict resolution is enhanced to model misperception of options and preferences. In particular, misperception caused by unknown options by one or more decision makers (DMs) is formally defined in the modified graph model framework. Moreover, DMs' preferences are expressed in a relative fashion by pairwise comparisons among any pair of states. That is, the modified graph model can handle both transitive and intransitive preference structures. Furthermore, three sets of equilibria are defined within the modified graph model, namely, steady, unsteady, and stealthy equilibria. The aim of identifying equilibria sets is to ascertain the first level hypergame equilibria for the modified graph model. The 2011 conflict between North and South Sudan over South Sudanese oil exports is studied using the modified graph model to illustrate the applicability of the model and to gain better insight into and understanding of the dispute.

The risk of a project portfolio is assessed using a new methodology that identifies the risk transfer in projects by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. In particular, to overcome the drawback of a greedy search algorithm having a random starting structure, the mutual information between project risks is measured before executing the algorithm by computing the impact of technical interactions on project risks. It is demonstrated that the preprocessing can exclude the error and indistinctive connections, so as to reduce the search space effectively. Finally, the project portfolio risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the interdependent network of risks is an effective tool to reveal the risk transfer in projects and infer the value of project portfolio risk.

Supply chain conflicts between Airbus and Boeing, along with potential suppliers are investigated using a hierarchical approach to obtain the strategic resolutions for all stakeholders. Two giant commercial aircraft makers, Airbus and Boeing, complete for better deals by selecting components for their newly designed aircraft, incurring conflicts due to their rivalry and the clash of interests with suppliers. To control the costs of their next generation aircraft and shorten the production period, both manufacturers demand better deals from potential suppliers with lower prices and more output. A conflict arises among the manufacturers and potential suppliers in the negotiation of the contract in each supply chain. To investigate these conflicts comprehensively, a hierarchical approach is adopted by constructing a Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) with a hierarchical structure. The stakeholders may obtain strategic resolutions according to possible outcomes indicated by stability results. These findings in the hierarchical graph model are further compared to those obtained when each conflict is investigated separately.

An environmental conflict that occurred in Elmira, a small town in southwestern Ontario, Canada is re-examined using a modified version of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). A newly developed decision support system (DSS) is utilized to carry out the analysis using the new “Inverse GMCR” approach. The new DSS features automatic graph drawing and in-depth conflict analysis, and provide new insights.

A conflict over water use and oil sands development in the Athabasca River Basin is modelled, and a stability analysis is carried out based on the Graph Model for Conflict Analysis. Oil sands require a great deal of water to extract bitumen, which may lead to insufficient water supply to the downstream area. Moreover, inappropriate waste water disposal can have serious effects on local fresh water resources. In order to balance industrial development and environmental protection, the conflict among the Alberta government, oil sands companies, and non-governmental organizations are analyzed, and insights and reasonable suggestions are provided.

A fair water allocation model is utilized to assess the impact on stakeholders of a water demand management plan. Moreover, an asymmetric Nash bargaining model is employed to analyze sharing of the additional net benefits gained among stakeholders. The results indicate that the performance of a water system with water demand management strategies is better in terms of lower water shortage ratios and greater economic benefits. Moreover, the environmental requirements could be better met when water demand management is implemented. The additional benefits gained can be shared by stakeholders through a bargaining process. The results of the asymmetric Nash bargaining analysis are presented.

A novel agent-based framework for modeling and simulating competitive and cooperative behavior under conflict is proposed. Formal definitions of Nash, general metarational, symmetric metarational, and sequential stability decision rules reflecting human behavior under conflict are presented in this paper. The definitions are inspired by the solution concepts of the graph model for conflict resolution and are conceived for implantation in the proposed agent-based modeling and simulation framework. With these decision rules, competitive and cooperative conflict dynamics are simulated for a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma. Moreover, policies can be tested for their effectiveness in avoiding or recouping from a tragedy of the commons.

A systems methodology for generating ordinal preferences from a value system is presented in this paper. The methodology employs value-focused thinking, the analytic hierarchy process, and a variety of methods, such as criteria-satisficing, optimizing, prioritization and weighting, to capture different value judgments. The methodology is operationalized for integration with the graph model for conflict resolution, which facilitates modeling and analysis of strategic conflicts. In applying the proposed methodology, preferences take into account evolving contextual variables in order to simulate participants' responses in a dynamic environment. The effects of different value systems on preferences and resulting conflict dynamics are demonstrated for a theoretical common-pool resources dilemma.

A novel approach based on the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) methodology is proposed to address the problem of multistakeholder system portfolio decision analysis encountered in architecting a system of systems (SoS) with desired capabilities. More specifically, a flexible four-process framework for capability-based SoS architecting containing interactive portfolio decision analysis to promote multistakeholder design negotiations on system portfolio selections is presented. By taking full advantage of the inherent realistic and flexible design of the GMCR paradigm, an interactive portfolio decision analysis approach is designed to facilitate the systematic modeling and analysis of system portfolio decisions at the SoS level in order to achieve potential compromises among all key stakeholders having disparate preferences and interacting according to different conflict behavior patterns. This approach permits the prediction of possible mutually agreeable system portfolios for SoS architecture development. Last, the feasibility of the proposed approach is demonstrated using an illustrative example.

The negotiations over reducing the amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions among major emitters are studied using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to gain better insight and understanding into the current situation. After the Durban and Doha climate change conferences were signed, major emitters took different mitigation actions to lower the amount of GHG in the atmosphere. The possible equilibrium states were determined to ascertain if major GHG emitters would lower their emissions according to the agreements or not. The analytical results reveal a strong motivation from the European Union nations (EU 27) and other developed countries to lower the amount of GHG with high ambition levels, while both the United States (US) and emerging countries namely, China, India, Brazil and South Africa, are acting with low ambition levels to lower the amount of GHG. The analysis also indicates that both the EU 27 and other developed countries will lower their ambition levels if the US and emerging countries retain low ambition levels. Finally, the analysis also demonstrates that both the US and China are still not willing to cooperate with each other to mitigate negative impacts of climate change.

Water diversion conflicts in China are studied using a hierarchical approach to obtain the strategic resolutions. To address the large population and uneven water distribution in China, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is being constructed to transfer water from the Yangtze River Basin to the North China Plain where there is a severe water shortage. As the eastern route of the project nears completion, conflicts have arisen along the central and western routes where the Chinese Central Government has to decide how to proceed. To obtain possible resolutions to these conflicts, a hierarchical approach is adopted by which conflicts along the two routes are analyzed separately using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The possible outcomes determined indicate that the central project can be fully initiated in spite of opposition, while the western route cannot be resumed without the agreement of the neighboring countries. These findings from the two separate conflicts are compared to those obtained when the two disputes are investigated as one larger conflict.

A historical water conflict along the Euphrates River in the Middle East is investigated and analyzed using the inverse approach to the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The essence of this methodology is to inform the mediators of the possible approaches to reach a more desired resolution. The goal is to allow mediators to focus their efforts on influencing the involved parties efficiently in order to achieve an improved resolution.

A generic sustainable development conflict having uncertain preferences is investigated using a new methodology. In particular, definitions of grey numbers are introduced for incorporation into the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) in order to capture uncertainty in preferences. The GMCR constitutes a simple and flexible methodology model and analyze strategic conflicts. The goal of the study is to analyze the influence of uncertainty on the outcome of the conflict and to provide suggestion on guiding the conflict to move in a desired direction. General grey numbers are used to represent the uncertain preferences of decision makers. Following the explanation of four solution concepts based on grey preferences, a stability analysis is conducted and some new insights are provided in this research.

In order to establish a forecasting model of grey numbers having a triangular whitenization weight function, a formula for degree of greyness of grey numbers with triangular whitenization weight function is proposed and its properties are studied. A new method which can forecast a grey number's degree of greyness is also put forward. The kernel of grey numbers, degree of greyness of grey numbers and length of grey numbers are used to establish the forecasting model of grey numbers. The new method can reduce the new grey numbers' degrees of greyness. Lastly, an application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model.

The fact that a conflict takes place in many rounds can obscure its nature. This research aims to answer the question of how to determine whether several rounds of a conflict happening at different points in time are connected. A conflict starts when a decision maker challenges a status quo. A decision maker can be involved in more than one conflict at a time, the features that differentiate conflicts are the objectives of the decision makers. The objectives are reflected in the decision makers' preferences over outcomes. The ultimate goal for a decision maker in a conflict is to obtain the most preferred achievable state.

Syria's Strategic location and presence of several parties with quite opposite interests have made the ongoing conflict over Syria a potential risk for sparking another World War. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is used to model and analyze the current conflict in Syria. This analysis considers five DMs containing Western Powers, Russia-China, Iran, Syrian regime, and internal oppositions with totally fourteen options. The decision support system GMCR II employs various solution concepts for stability definition to determine the most likely outcomes among all feasible states. It is concluded that the status quo is not stable and will not last for long run. To deter escalation of this conflict and reaching to more peaceful conditions, it is recommended that Russia-China and Iran cooperate with Western Powers. Coalition analysis also indicates that as long as Iran and Russia supports Syrian regime with armory, Syria escalates the war against internal oppositions.

A formal matrix representation for analyzing a decision maker's (DM's) attitudes in a conflict is defined and applied to the problem of negotiating the acquisition of a brownfield property by a developer from a property owner. A DM's attitudes are expressed in her or his consideration of her own preferences, as well as those of her opponents. Understanding these attitudes is essential to having a grasp on the possible outcomes of a given conflict. However, these attitudes are often difficult to represent and even more difficult to encode effectively within a decision support system. Therefore, a matrix representation, which constitutes a more efficient way of expressing attitudes in a programming environment, is developed in this research.

A methodology is developed to use the fuzzy truth values of preference statements for feasible states in an option prioritization technique in order to rank states within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Option prioritization ranks states based on the truth values of preference statements, which are compositions of the decision makers' courses of actions joined by logical connectives, ordered lexicographically. Fuzzy truth values are represented as truth degrees; so they include binary truth values, “true” and “false”, as well as other possible truth intensities that are reasonable according to the specific circumstances. Consequently, the assumption of fuzzy truth values of preference statements provides more realistic preference ordering of feasible states. The methodology is applied to the Elmira groundwater contamination dispute, which took place in Elmira, Ontario, Canada, for eliciting the preferences of decision makers, to demonstrate the applicability of this technique.

A methodology to construct ordinal preferences from multiple objectives for multiple participants in a conflict is proposed. The methodology combines value focused thinking, the analytic hierarchy process, criteria satisficing, and relative weighting and prioritization schemes to order states of a conflict. Compared to conventional methods of utility and optimization, application of the proposed methodology is less expensive, both cognitively and computationally. Still, hard thinking and value judgments would nonetheless be required to define meaningful and appropriate objectives, attributes and criteria, as would any decision making task. Preference construction for an 8-participant conflict is demonstrated. The resulting preferences can be directly inputted into a graph model for conflict resolution to determine stable outcomes of the conflict.

A water diversion conflict in the Danjiangkou area, China, is systematically studied in order to obtain an understanding of its strategic impacts. To address the large population and uneven distribution of water storage in China, the South-North Water Distribution Project (SNWDP) is being constructed to transfer water from the Yangtze River Basin to the North China Plain where there is a severe water shortage. The implementation of this project may not only affect water usage in the Danjiangkou area, which is the largest headwater region in the central route of SNWDP, but also have environmental impacts, resulting in conflict between local communities and the government which initiated this project. To formally investigate this conflict, the methodology of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is utilized. The equilibrium determined from a stability analysis indicates that the strategy used by the government benefits the residents, but neglects the environmental impacts. To understand these discrepancies, changes are made in the government's preferences to obtain an equilibrium which reflects the government's desire to achieve both economic equality and environmental sustainability.

Two approaches are introduced to model and analyze third party intervention, an important element in conflict resolution. These approaches are based on the GMCR framework. Although many studies discuss conflict resolution and conflict modeling, little work has been done on modeling third party interventions. The inverse approach to GMCR is introduced and investigated to find an optimal way to resolve a conflict. An historical conflict is analyzed using the introduced approach. Stability predictions based on different solution concepts are calculated, and the factors influencing third party intervention in a conflict are identified.

A new ranking approach based on Grey Systems Theory using PROMETHEE II (Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation II) is applied to a Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. The objective is to rank alternative suggestions to decision makers for maintaining source water quantity and quality . The method uses grey sets to represent uncertain information in the PROMETHEE II method. An inherent advantage of this approach is its ability to comprehensively consider quantitative and qualitative factors, making reliable decisions in an environment of uncertainty and subjective information. In this case study, involving the evaluation of source water strategies in the Waterloo Region, located in Ontario, Canada, the linguistic values of alternatives are expressed as grey sets, which are used to aggregate the opinions of experts and stakeholders on the impacts of the strategies according to selected criteria.

The negotiations between Brinco and Hydro-Québec, which led to the exploitation of the hydropower potential of the Upper Churchill Falls, is analyzed within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution framework. Immediately after the agreement was signed, several rounds of conflicts arose between the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador and the Province of Québec. The equilibrium states of the negotiations are analyzed to understand the motivation and possible distinction for the evolved conflicts. The analysis shows strong motivation for the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador to renegotiate the terms of the contract to reach a better deal which may cause further conflicts. Analysis also suggests strategies and feasible circumstances in which the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador may be able to improve its situation.

The Qezelozan-Sefidrood Watershed is a transboundary watershed in Iran, shared by eight provinces. Recent development plans in the upstream provinces include several dams that are either under construction or at the study stage. Implementation of these plans will negatively impact the downstream provinces, which historically have had access to the river. The situation can be exacerbated by the expected climate change impacts on the basin. This study evaluates the possible impacts of upstream development plans and climate change on the natural flow of the Qezelozan-Sefidrood River and designs a reasonable mechanism for fair allocation of streamflow to the riparian parties. First, a watershed model is developed using the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP) software. This model is run for current water allocation and various development and climate change scenarios. The results indicate that the downstream provinces have a high vulnerability to the expected climate and development changes in the basin. To reduce the potential tension, the study treats the problem as a “bankruptcy problem” and applies the Adjusted Proportional rule to fairly allocate the available resource (water) to the creditors (conflict parties).

A framework for Identification of Risk Factors in Brownfield Redevelopment is proposed from the perspective of an empirical study. Firstly, the selection of the primary set of risk factors of brownfield redevelopment is put forth by the literature research and group decision methods. Then reliability and validity of the primary set of risk factors of brownfield redevelopment is approved by calculating the value of Cronbach's alpha and conducting the KMO (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin) and Bartlett ball test. Finally, the main risk factors of brownfield redevelopment are identified by carrying out factor analysis. The identified risk factors facilitate risk assessment and control.

A new framework for the graph model for conflict resolution is developed so that decision makers (DMs) with fuzzy preferences can be included in conflict models. A graph model is both a formal representation for multiple participant-multiple objective decision problems and a set of analysis procedures that add insights into them. Within the new framework, graph models can include-and integrate into the analysis-both certain and uncertain information about DMs' preferences. One key contribution of this study is to extend the four basic stability definitions for two or more DMs to models with fuzzy preferences. Together, fuzzy Nash stability, fuzzy general metarationality, fuzzy symmetric metarationality, and fuzzy sequential stability provide anuanced description of human behavior. A state is fuzzy stable for a DM if a move to any other state is not sufficiently likely to yield an outcome which the DM prefers, where sufficiency is measured according to a fuzzy satisficing threshold that is the characteristic of the DM. A fuzzy equilibrium, which is an outcome that is fuzzy stable for all DMs, therefore represents a possible resolution of the strategic conflict. The practical application and interpretation of these new stability definitions are illustrated with an example.

A hierarchical decision model is proposed to select the optimal quality control strategies among various alternatives to pursue the most satisfying quality improvement for the supply chain in producing a complex product, such as an aircraft, warship, or satellite. More specifically, a novel framework, referred to as house of supply chain quality (HSCQ), is designed to provide necessary information for managing the supply chain quality, which can be transformed to a multi-objective program to determine the optimal quality control strategies and allocate proper quality control resources. Based on the relationships of the suppliers in the supply chain, an HSCQ network can be constructed and an associated multilevel multi-objective program can be established as the hierarchical decision model, which assists the enterprises in different tiers to choose the optimal quality control strategies for managing the quality of their outsourcing products. The result can significantly improve the overall quality performance of the supply chain. A case study on an aircraft production system is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the new model, which furnishes a fresh perspective on the supply chain quality management of a complex product.

A Fuzzy Preference Framework for the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is employed to analyze the sustainable development conflict in order to gain strategic insights. This framework is a novel methodology to identify outcomes favorable for all parties in a multiple-participant multiple-objective decision making setting with both certain and uncertain preference information. When applied to the sustainable development conflict, in which a developer plans to build or operate a project inspected by an environmental agency, the methodology identifies stable outcomes and thus clarifies the necessary conditions for sustainability.

Motivated by example problems arising in energy, environment and service systems, the panelists will review those systems, man and cybernetics methods that are essential in dealing with these problems. The focus will be on new model-based and computational techniques, including approaches concerned with systems of systems, conflict resolution and adaptive real-time decision making. Although the organizers will initially serve as panel presenters, it is expected that they will also act as facilitators in an ensuing discussion among conference attendees who are cordially invited to participate in this specially organized panel.

The ongoing conflict among Shiites, Sunnis, and the Government of Bahrain is formally investigated using the graph model for conflict resolution in order to gain strategic insights into how this festering dispute can be better understood and resolved. At the modeling stage, the Bahrain conflict is meaningfully described in terms of the three main decision makers (DMs), as well as each DM's options or courses of action it controls and relative preferences among the possible states or scenarios that could arise. Subsequently, at the analysis stage, a stability analysis is carried out to determine the stability of a state from each DM's viewpoint, according to different descriptions of behavior under conflict, as well as the equilibria or compromise resolutions. The findings indicate that although the present strife could continue unless the Government steps down, a compromise solution in which the Government institutes reform is possible.

This paper presents an approach to time series prediction based on Asymmetric Subsethood-Product Fuzzy Neural Inference System (ASuPFuNIS). The standard time series techniques have standard averaging where a fixed weight is added to the past values. In this paper we present a novel neuro-fuzzy inference system based on asymmetric subsethood with intervention based transfer function based time series model for accurate prediction of time series. The design of the model is described, and the scheme is evaluated by application to real-world problem of cost of electricity prices over a period of seven year in Ontario, Canada. We also study the various statistical properties of the data.

A Negotiation Support System (NSS) is developed based on the conceptual framework of the Evolutionary Model for Multilateral Negotiations (EMMN). The EMMN methodology is utilized to identify the most likely outcomes of asymmetric multilateral negotiations, in which each negotiator seeks to reach the most preferable outcome for which he or she can gain enough support from other negotiators. This NSS increases the speed of calculations, as well as avoids the errors typical of manual stability calculations and sensitivity analyses. All stable and feasible negotiation states are identified and illustrated in the output of this NSS, which is, therefore, a valuable aid in practical negotiations.

The hostilities brought about in 2010 due to the exchange of fire between The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) are evaluated using a systems analysis technique for analyzing the impact of attitudes upon conflict resolution.

A fuzzy preference framework is developed within the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution. This framework takes into account both certain and uncertain information about the preferences of decision makers (DMs) involved in a strategic conflict. The graph model is a solution methodology for conflict decision making that begins with a model of the problem and suggests possible resolutions through a number of stability definitions. Four basic fuzzy stability definitions are introduced for a two-DM graph model to analyze conflict behavior and identify possible resolutions even when preferences are fuzzy. Fuzzy stability definitions describe varied human behavior in a conflict model; a state is fuzzy stable for a DM according to a specific fuzzy stability definition if a move to any other state, evaluated according to that definition, does not meet the DM's fuzzy satisficing threshold. A state that is fuzzy stable for all DMs under a specific fuzzy stability definition constitutes a fuzzy equilibrium under that definition, and is interpreted as a possible resolution of the conflict. Fuzzy stability definitions include fuzzy Nash stability, fuzzy general metarationality, fuzzy symmetric metarationality, and fuzzy sequential stability.

A formal conflict methodology is applied to the practical negotiation of a petroleum brownfield transaction to illustrate the usefulness of this novel theoretical development and the inherent need for cooperation and coalition movements in brownfield negotiations. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a flexible formal conflict model, and associated frameworks used for analyzing coalitions, attitudes and coalitions and attitudes (COAT) are employed and defined formally herein. Using these important approaches, decision analysts can gain insight into what type of strategic decision making will help bring problems, such as the negotiation of liability around a petroleum brownfield, to a win-win resolution.

A numerical technique for evaluating brownfields is proposed. The method is based on the representation of redevelopment strategies using fuzzy real options, which can be evaluated using an extended Least Squares Monte-Carlo (LSM) simulation. By employing a fuzzy boundary to represent the contaminated region of a brownfield, the parameters of various options for redevelopment can be estimated. Beginning with expert judgments on multiple factors at different locations, a decision support system can map a possibly polluted area using fuzzy real option parameters determined according to an ordered weighted averaging (OWA) technique. The results can be input directly into a decision process. A particular advantage of extended LSM lies in its ability to produce results whether or not an analytic solution exists, making fuzzy real options very widely applicable to brownfield development pricing.

The preferences of different stakeholders of brownfield redevelopment project in China are analyzed by means of ANOVA. The results of ANOVA indicate that the different stakeholders have the same opinion on the importance of the four dimensions of Social and Economic, Financial and Accounting, Environmental and Health and Prospective Value, even though there are some different opinions on the importance of certain dimensions within certain groups of stakeholders. All these results have important value for policy-making.

A systematic study of recent developments in preferences based on fuzzy logic is carried out in order to identify an effective design for fuzzy preference models in conflict resolution. Fuzzy preference, defined via a fuzzy relation over the alternatives or states, attempts to represent a decision maker's preferences more realistically. It generalizes the usual preference structures in the sense that it provides a uniform description of both certain (crisp) and uncertain preferences. The potential applicability of fuzzy preferences to the modeling, analysis, and understanding of strategic conflicts is investigated and connected to a literature survey.

A framework of strategic performance comparison is designed based upon the well-known theory of generic strategic analysis in business and is used to carry out a competence analysis of provinces in China. An introduction of Porter's generic strategic analysis is introduced first to provide background information. Then, a summary of multiple criteria decision analysis and a few decision analysis tools are sequently presented. Next, a two-dimension framework is proposed for the strategic performance comparison and its application to the competence analysis of provinces in China is discussed in detail, including the analysis procedures and findings.

A systems approach to integrative adaptive management of brownfields on Alberta's oil sands development sites is presented. In particular, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is utilized to understand underlying development conflicts among stakeholders, which arise due to competing economic, environmental and societal objectives. The conflict model provides a formalized hypothesis-testing platform for determining responsible policies, which are those that enhance integrative adaptive management in order to utilize this resource responsibly.

Propositions are presented on interrelationships among attitude-based and conventional stability concepts within the paradigm of Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. In fact, the authors verify the following properties: if decision makers' attitudes are discrete and decision makers' preferences are complete and anti-symmetric, then i) relational Nash stability is equivalent to Nash stability, ii) relational general metarationality is equivalent to general metarationality, iii) relational symmetric metarationality is equivalent to symmetric metarationality, and iv) relational sequential stability is equivalent to sequential stability; under totally neutral attitudes of decision makers, i) relational Nash stability is equivalent to relational symmetric metarationality, and ii) relational general metarationality is equivalent to relational sequential stability.

Formal analytical techniques are employed for better understanding the continuing conflict over Iran's nuclear program, including predicting various outcomes and recommending how to reduce the intensity of the conflict, or at least prevent its escalation. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is used to investigate the strategic interaction of Iran and its opponents. The analysis of our model shows that a military conflict is certainly possible but not the most likely outcome. We conclude with suggestions about how the decision makers could reach a peaceful resolution, demonstrating that the International Atomic Energy Agency should be as actively involved as possible.

Systems tools for analyzing the impact of stakeholder attitudes under conflict are utilized to examine the decision of the University of Waterloo to build its new School of Pharmacy on a brownfield property in downtown Kitchener, Ontario, Canada. The redevelopment of brownfield properties often has tremendous environmental impacts due to the remediation of the contaminated subsurface. However, there is also a significant increase in the social and financial well-being of the community when a property is redeveloped. Often brownfield redevelopment projects are not undertaken due to the risk of liability that the developer may face. The analysis of this redevelopment project demonstrates the importance of institutional attitudes in the negotiations surrounding brownfield redevelopment projects.

The uncertainties associated with liability in brownfield redevelopment and relevant risk management tools are discussed based on a comparative review of the situation in Canada and the United States. The changes of regulations and policies, inherent uncertainties of site assessment and remediation techniques, incidents of contaminant transport and exposure, and variations of economic and financial conditions all lead to the uncertainties of environmental liability. The fear of liability especially the associated uncertainties is the key obstacle for owners or developers to undertake cleanup and redevelopment due to the subsequent unpredictability of economic profitability. Various risk management tools have been gradually developed in the last three decades to address liability uncertainties, both within Canada and the US, among which environmental insurance and innocent owner's shelter from liability are the two most viable instruments to reduce the fear of liability. Policy making and risk management have evolved more slowly in Canada than in the US and there is a trend for Canadian provinces to adopt the successful policies and tools used in the US rather than formulate their own.

A prototype decision support system is developed for private developers to evaluate brownfield redevelopment projects based on fuzzy real options. Redevelopment investments under high uncertainty can be better assessed using fuzzy real options than when employing the traditional Net Present Value (NPV) method. When using NPV, private developers tend to require high risk premiums and regard these projects as unprofitable. Hence, a better valuation method is needed to reveal the real value of a brownfield. The fuzzy real option model seems to be appropriate for this purpose. A Decision Support System (DSS) is proposed based on this model in order to evaluate a brownfield site and provide private developers with better investment advice. This DSS's architecture and user interface are introduced and discussed. Implementation techniques are compared and selected according to their advantages and disadvantages. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate this system's processing capability. It is found that the proposed DSS is flexible and user-friendly. It can generate not only a price, but also an optimized strategy for dealing with uncertainties, which has great potential in applications.

An algebraic approach is developed to calculate stabilities in two decision maker graph models with strength of preference. The original graph model uses ¿simple preference¿ to represent a decision maker's relative preference between two states. This preference structure includes only a relative preference relation and an indifference relation. Basic stability definitions, and algorithms to calculate them, assume simple preference. But difficulties in coding the algorithms, mainly because of their logical formulation, led to the development of matrix representations of preference and explicit matrix algorithms to calculate stability. Here, the algebraic approach is extended to representation of strength-of-preference graph models, which feature multiple levels of preference, and stability analysis for such models. Matrix representation of stability definitions facilitates the development of new stability concepts and algorithms to calculate them. The method is illustrated using a simple model of a conflict over sustainable development.

An index system for the evaluation of the Brownfield redevelopment projects in China is proposed. This index system involves the four dimensions consisting of social and economic, financial and accounting, environmental and health, and prospective value. Each dimension includes some criteria. With the help of software SPSS, the reliability and satisfaction of the proposed index system are proven by calculating the value of Cronbach's alpha and doing a one sample t-test. Additionally, the driving forces of each dimension are identified by using multiple regression analysis.

A benchmark-based method is proposed for multiple-criteria ranking, and a case study is presented to demonstrate that the procedure can be efficient and effective in practice. Multiple-criteria ranking aims to help a decision maker (DM) assess a finite set of alternatives according to several criteria, usually conflicting, in order to rank the full set. The relation of benchmarks to multiple-criteria decision analysis is investigated systematically, and then, an approach based on distance from a benchmark is designed to incorporate information about a DM's judgements so as to produce a full ranking. The procedure is applied to rank 81 U.S. brownfield redevelopment projects based on available data and an accepted benchmark.

Perceptual graph model systems are designed to be employed when there are discrepancies in decision makers' (DMs) perceptions of a conflict, which may be caused, for instance, by the presence of negative emotion or asymmetric information among DMs. In this case, conventional stability analysis cannot be used; perceptual stability analysis is proposed as a new theoretical procedure that extends existing stability algorithms to situations when DMs have independent perceptions or awarenesses of a conflict. The overriding objective of perceptual stability analysis is to predict possible resolutions, and unveil the dependence of these predictions on variability in a DM's awareness. Perceptual stability analysis takes a two-phase approach. In Phase 1, individual stability analysis is applied to each DM's graph model (a perceptual graph model) from the point of view of the owner of the model, for each DM in the model, using standard or perceptual solution concepts, depending on the owner's awareness of others' perceptions. Then, in Phase 2, metastability analysis is employed to consolidate the stability assessments of a state in all perceptual graph models and across all variants of awareness-i.e., in all possible graph model systems. The distinctive modes of equilibria thus defined reflect the incompatibilities in DMs' perceptions and viewpoints, but nonetheless provide important insights into possible resolutions of the conflict. To demonstrate the practical application of these new developments, a model of the conflict in Chechnya is presented and analyzed.

A matrix method is developed to apply four solution concepts to a graph model for conflict resolution in order to model human behavior in a multiple-decision-maker (DM) strategic conflict. A graph model represents the interaction of two or more DMs and can be analyzed to identify possible equilibrium states according to each solution concept. Previously, solution concepts were defined logically, in terms of the underlying graphs. However, procedures to identify stable states based on these definitions are difficult to code because of the nature of the logical representations. In this paper, a graph model and four graph model solution concepts are formulated explicitly using matrices. More specifically, matrix expressions are given for relative preferences, joint unilateral movements, and joint unilateral improvements in a multiple-DM model. Then, it is shown how to calculate stability under each of the four solution concepts using the matrix representation. Compared with the existing approach, matrix representation is more effective and convenient for calculating stabilities and predicting equilibria of a graph model. In particular, the proposed method is easy to code and extend to other contexts.

A system that aggregates case-based linguistic decision rules using a hybrid of the dominance-based rough set approach (DRSA) and the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence is proposed for multiple criterion-multiple participant sorting. First, DRSA is employed to estimate decision makers' (DMs) preferences by deducing linguistic decision rules from representative case sets evaluated by different DMs. Next, DS theory is used to evaluate each alternative by aggregating the decision rules triggered by the DMs, thereby generating an overall decision recommendation for the alternative. The proposed method is demonstrated using a numerical example.

This paper provides some propositions on interrelationships among attitude-based stability concepts within the graph model for conflict resolution. Concentrating on the cases in which just two decision makers having specific types of attitudes are involved, the authors investigate various interrelationships among such attitude-based stability concepts as relational Nash stability, relational general metarationality, relational symmetric metarationality, and relational sequential stability. In particular, it is verified that under the condition that all of the attitudes of the decision makers are the same, relational Nash stability and relational sequential stability are equivalent to each other.

Two multiple criteria decision making approaches, an adapted Analytical Hierarchy Process approach and a three-layer hierarchical analysis model based on ELECTRE III, are integrated with the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to elicit decision makers' preference information. To compare their characteristics and capabilities for preference elicitation, both methods are applied to a hypothetical transportation negotiation conflict between two key participants, consisting of shippers and carriers. Some concluding remarks are then made on the commonalities and differences between these two techniques.

The search for the equilibrium states of a given conflict is a major issue in conflict analyses. There are several traditional methodologies to determine the equilibrium states of a strategic conflict, such as logical definitions within the graph model for conflict resolution and the matrix representation for conflict resolution. However, these methods depend on a graphical or mathematical representation and need analytical expressions to calculate the equilibrium states. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a type of machine learning method that can search for the equilibrium states by trial-and-error without the need for a precise mathematical model of the conflict problem. This paper proposes a novel multiple RL technique that deals with conflict resolution problems for the case of two decision makers. Moreover, the proposed method cannot only find equilibria, but also track all paths from any status quo to the equilibria in conflicts when these paths exist. This method is evaluated using two well-known conflict analysis examples. The experimental results show that the proposed method can quickly, correctly, and efficiently find the equilibria and track the evolution paths.

New definitions and methodology are proposed in this paper to predict the most likely outcomes of multilateral negotiations. The negotiation problems modeled and analyzed here are distinctive because the set of possible agreements is discrete and specified in advance. Each decision maker has two concerns: first, achieving an alternative that is as preferable as possible; second, building support among the other decision makers for this alternative. The general objective of this research is to study movements from one state to another in multilateral negotiations, to predict stable agreements, and to study their properties. In addition, we propose some procedures that measure the relative likelihood of moves from an unstable state to stable agreements. An example is used to clarify how this methodology can be applied to predict outcomes of negotiations.

Within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, a formal model for attitudes of decision makers is applied to the study of brownfield redevelopment projects. The formation of coalitions is examined in conjunction with attitudes, to illustrate what opportunities for cooperation exist within brownfield redevelopment. Combining attitudes and coalition formation within the graph model allows for a more complete understanding of how cities, developers and the general public affect the success of brownfield renovation projects through their positive and negative interactions.

This paper uses the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) to model and analyze strategic conflict in Brownfield redevelopment, which is a major issue in Canada and around the world. As a case study, a graph model of the conflict surrounding the ERASE program, implemented in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, in 2001, is analyzed using the recently-developed matrix representation. Final equilibria (stable states) include no redevelopment, redevelopment by the private sector, and redevelopment by the public sector. These three equilibria seem to correspond to the outcome of brownfields conflicts in various cities in Ontario, including the ERASE program in Hamilton, showing the potential of GMCR to predict impacts of policy modification and to improve policy-making in Brownfield redevelopment.

A new preference structure that includes preference strength and preference uncertainty is developed within the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution with two decision makers. This structure allows a decision maker to strongly or mildly prefer one state or scenario over another, to have equal preference for the two states, or to be uncertain about the preference between them, thereby creating a more general preference structure. Four solution concepts, Nash Stability, General Metarationality, Symmetric Metarationality, and Sequential Stability, are defined for the graph model with this extended preference structure, and relationships among stability types are determined. A specific graph model with two decision makers is used to illustrate how the new solution concepts can be applied in practice.

A research framework based on project evaluation theories and methods is designed for tackling brownfield problems in China. The proposed framework illustrates the steps for investigation of various issues of brownfields in China including the analysis and summary of the current research situation and achievements of brownfield redevelopment activities in China; the construction of an ecosystem-oriented, stakeholder-based full life span integrated evaluation criterion system; and the establishment of a soft evaluation and decision system for brownfield redevelopment project. A Grey Theory-based Grey AHP evaluation model is also proposed to show how a soft evaluation and decision model works in a brownfield redevelopment project evaluation. The proposed framework can give guidance to systematically solving brownfield problems in China.

A strategic decision support procedure is developed for brownfield redevelopment planning and demonstrated with a practical case study. The procedure contains both higher and lower levels of strategic decisions. The higher-level strategic decision is designed to assess the feasibility of a specific brownfield redevelopment. A well-known business strategic planning tool, SWOT analysis, is adapted to help decision makers (DMs) to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats involved in implementation of a brownfield redevelopment. The lower-level strategic decision is meant to find the best brownfleld redevelopment solution. Several multiple criteria decision analysis tools are employed to assist DMs to evaluate brownfield redevelopment designs using economic, social and environmental criteria. Finally, a practical case study is carried out to demonstrate the proposed procedure.

Two different approaches to conflict analysis are applied to the serious conflict arising over the illegal dumping of toxic waste in the former capital of Ivory Coast in August 2006, in order to compare their capabilities for gaining strategic insights into this dispute. More specifically, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and Drama Theory are employed to systematically study the toxic waste controversy. Subsequently, these two techniques are compared using this conflict with respect to their intrinsic and actual capabilities for modeling, better understanding and forecasting the equilibria or potential resolutions.

Conflicts are common in almost all construction projects, and improper handling of such conflicts can result in cost overruns and delays. To reach a satisfactory resolution to a conflict, it is necessary to carefully negotiate a resolution that considers the adverse and often uncertain preferences of the various parties involved. To support this difficult process, this paper introduces a practical framework for resolving construction conflicts using the graph model for conflict resolution. The framework uses information-gap theory to identify the most robust resolution in the presence of the uncertainty associated with decision makers' preferences. An example application of a construction conflict is presented to illustrate the details of the uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the framework's usefulness and practicality for construction conflict resolution.

A modified analytic hierarchy process (AHP) preference ranking approach is integrated into the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to analyze the Canadian west coast port congestion problem from a conflict analysis perspective. More specifically, the AHP approach is employed to elicit relative preferences for decision makers and this preference information is then fed into a graph model for further stability analyses. The case study of the Canadian west coast port congestion problem demonstrates how to apply the integrated model in practice.

The general objective of this research is developing methodologies to predict stable agreements in multilateral negotiations and study their properties. To model and analyze negotiations, a wide range of integrative or cooperative approaches can be used to identify appropriate tradeoffs for the negotiators. The negotiation problems considered here are distinctive, however, because the set of possible agreements is discrete, and specified in advance. Each decision maker has two concerns: first, achieving an alternative that is as preferable as possible; second, building support for this alternative among the other decision makers. New definitions and methodologies are proposed in this paper to model and analyze multilateral negotiations within a context of discrete choices.

Systems methodologies for analyzing independent behavior and coalition formation under conflict are employed to examine the strategic impact of the decision of the United States not to sign the Kyoto Protocol upon the preferences and attitudes of Russia. The reduction of greenhouse gases to control climate change is a complex system of systems problem involving not only environmental factors but also social, economic and political issues among industrial and developing nations. The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 was an attempt to provide economic and political incentives for nations to join a coalition for the reduction of emission levels. The analysis of this conflict demonstrates the influence that the United States had on the Kyoto Protocol and the effects of international relationships in forming a working coalition to combat climate change.

A game-theoretic approach to brownfield redevelopment is presented to support negotiations on related cost and benefit allocation. The process of brownfield redevelopment is discussed and three types of key decision makers (DMs) are identified, namely the landowner, the developer and the government. Based on a qualitative analysis of coalitions among the key DMs, a cooperative game model is formulated for the brownfield redevelopment cost and benefit allocation problem. To initiate the negotiation on the cost and benefit allocation, a common understanding of the estimates of relevant costs and benefits in a brownfield redevelopment project is required. The proposed modeling framework utilizes various nucleolus concepts and the Shapley value to find alternative fair cost and benefit allocations from which the DMs can make the final selection. An illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.

New matrix representations are developed for characterizing potential human interactions under conflict within the structure of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution for the case of a dispute having two decision makers. The matrix representations are devised for calculating individual stability and equilibria for strategic interactions defined according to the solution concepts consisting of Nash stability, general metarationality, symmetric metarationality, and sequential stability. A potential military confrontation is utilized to illustrate the procedures for applying the matrix representation of solution concepts to a practical problem. Compared with the existing systems, matrix representation of solution concepts for graph models is more effective and convenient for calculating stabilities and predicting equilibria, especially in complex conflict models with many feasible states. Moreover, the method is easy to code and can be extended to other contexts such as those that allow preference uncertainty.

Brownfield areas are contaminated lands that lie unused and unproductive. Because of the serious economic, social, political, and environmental damages that brownfield problems can cause to society, governments are focusing their attentions on the redevelopment of these contaminated sites. However, the excess costs of reconstruction projects over their benefits often stall the initiation of projects. Moreover, brownfield projects involve several uncertainties that seriously contribute to the challenges of brownfield redevelopment, such as uncertainty about the extent of contamination and the uncertainty in cleanup costs. To overcome these challenges, negotiation among the involved parties (government, owner, purchaser, and their stakeholders) is one of the most efficient tactics to arrive at a mutually acceptable solution and, as such, saves an enormous amount of time, cost, and resources. This paper aims at discussing the negotiation process associated with remediation and redevelopment of brownfield projects. Timing, type of contaminate, extent of contaminate, zoning, offsite impact, and the number of players are some of the most important factors affecting the study of brownfield negotiation and their ultimate redevelopment. The needs and interests of the various parties involved in a brownfield negotiation process are discussed. Initial steps towards the development of a decision support system for resolving brownfield conflicts through negotiation are then highlighted.

A framework for project risk management is proposed for employment with brownfield redevelopment projects (BRPs). This structure involves the three dimensions consisting of time, logic and knowledge. The time dimension is concerned with the initiation, planning, implementation and closure phases of the life span of a BRP. The logic dimension considers the processes of risk management comprised of risk identification, assessment and treatment, while the knowledge dimension furnishes tools and techniques which can be used in risk management of a BRP. By using this framework, risk management is integrated into the overall BRP management structure.

A case-based distance model to solve sorting problems in multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is developed, and its application in water resources management is presented. The sorting problem in MCDA is to arrange a set of alternatives into ordered groups. MCDA is introduced as consequence-based preference aggregation, whereby consequence and preference expressions (values and weights) are defined and combined in a sequence of steps. Then, sorting problems are defined, and some properties are explained. Based on weighted Euclidean distance, two case-based distance models are developed for sorting using weights and group thresholds obtained by assessment of a case set provided by a decision maker (DM). This case-based method can elicit the DM's preferences more expeditiously and accurately than direct inquiry. Case-based sorting model I is designed for cardinal criteria, while its extension, i.e., case-based sorting model II, can handle both cardinal and ordinal criteria. Optimization programs are employed to find the most descriptive weights and group thresholds. A case study in which Canadian municipalities are sorted according to water usage is presented.

Several important application areas that will dominate systems, man, and cybernetic (SMC) efforts for at least the next decade, together with the methods that will require further research and development in order to appropriately address these application domains, are considered herein. More specifically, four broad and pervasive system domains are examined: service systems, infrastructure and transportation systems, environmental and energy systems, and defense and space systems. Given the nature of these four application domains, a number of new systems [i.e., holistic-oriented, including system-of-systems (SoS)], man (i.e., decision-oriented, including decision informatics), and cybernetic (i.e., adaptive-oriented, including real-time control) methods are identified and their further development are discussed. Clearly, the IEEE Society on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics has a great future; its systems, man, and cybernetic methods are relevant for addressing challenging problems arising in system domains that are becoming dominant in this 21st century. However, the methods must be refined and expanded to meet the changing needs of the 21st century; from a system to a system-of-systems vision, from a disciplinary to a multidisciplinary outlook, from a mass production to a mass customization focus, from a steady state to a real-time perspective, and from an optimal to an adaptive approach.

A policy equilibrium is defined, and its properties investigated, for conflicts with more than two decision makers (DMs). A fundamental construction is the metarational tree, which expresses DMs' interactions as sequences of rounds, each consisting of an initial move by the focal DM followed by countermoves by the opponents. Using the metarational tree, the stability definitions of the graph model for conflict resolution can be adapted to apply to policies. These generalized metarational stabilities are shown to generalize Nash, general metarational, and symmetric metarational stabilities. Relationships among generalized metarationalities are derived, as are their connections with policy equilibria. Finally, the refinement that allows only credible moves (moves that are in the immediate interest of the mover) produces a new family of credible generalized metarational stabilities that generalizes the concept of sequential stability in the graph model.

Over the past twenty years, many decision analysis tools have been developed to apply multiple-criteria techniques to sorting. In both of the main approaches, direct judgment and case-based reasoning, alternatives are arranged into a predefined number of groups. In practical applications, however, a decision maker may prefer a sorting method that facilitates effective organization of the alternatives based on interactive adjustment of the group count. This paper proposes an efficient sorting method with this flexibility. A case study in inventory management is carried out to demonstrate the approach.

Two multiple objective optimization methods for water rights allocation, the priority-based maximal multiperiod network flow programming (PMMNF) method and lexicographic minimax water shortage ratios (LMWSR) method are applied to the South Saskatchewan river basin in southern Alberta, Canada. Population growth and economic expansion are straining water resources in this basin. Irrigation, municipal and industrial uses, and hydropower generation are the major water demands competing for limited water resources. The case study shows that the PMMNF method usually produces large differences in the satisfaction ratios among uses in times of water shortages since it is based on the priority concept. On the other hand, the allocations by LMWSR lead to fairer distributed satisfaction ratios because it adopts the lexicographic minimax equity concept and thus has water shortages shared among all the water demands of various types of uses.

Sorting is a process for multiple criteria decision analysis that arranges a set of alternatives into ordinally defined groups. Based on weighted Euclidean distance, a case-based distance model is proposed for sorting using weights and group thresholds obtained by assessment of a case set. A quadratic optimization program is employed to find optimal weights and group thresholds. Instead of direct inquiry, this case-based method can elicit the decision maker's preferences more expeditiously and accurately. A case study on Canadian municipal water usage analysis is presented.

A procedure is put forward for using the graph model for conflict resolution to account for the role of emotion in strategic conflict. The concept of possibility provides a framework for modeling decision makers' subjective perceptions of outcomes in a conflict, which can conceal logically valid states or expose states that are otherwise invisible. The implicit assumption of the graph model, that all decision makers' directed graphs have the same set of states, and hence that all decision makers share the same conceptualization of the conflict, is no longer appropriate. The proposed analysis technique for asymmetric state sets is suitable for use when emotions have caused discrepancies in the apprehension of a situation, and it permits exploration of the behavioral consequences of these perceptual differences. The 1990s confrontation in Chechnya between Russia and Chechen Rebels, an emotionally-leaden struggle with inconsistent perceptions, is used to illustrate the new procedure

The graph model for conflict resolution is used to formally analyze an ongoing conflict between India and Bangladesh over the regulation of the Ganges River in order to illustrate the crucial role a Third Party can play in resolving the dispute. Because a Third Party can assist in resolving a dispute in a variety of ways, a general systems approach to conflict management with a Third Party is devised. The strategic analysis of the India/Bangladesh conflict using the graph model clearly shows that one can determine, in advance, exactly how a Third Party can influence potential resolutions to the dispute.

A new preference structure is introduced into the graph model for conflict resolution. This structure can handle a decision-maker's (DM) strict preference for one state or scenario over another, equal preference for states, and uncertain or unknown preference in the comparison of two states. Built upon this preference structure, four types of solution definitions modeling human behavior under conflict are extended to accommodate uncertainty in preferences. Four distinct ways to consider uncertain preference information are identified, producing sixteen extended stability definitions. Interrelationships of these definitions within and across the four definition sets are investigated. Illustrative examples of two-DM and multi-DM conflict models are presented to show how the new solution concepts can be applied in practice.

A new approach is developed to conduct status quo analysis within the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution. An algorithm is formulated to generate a diagram starting from the status quo state to characterize possible moves and countermoves by the decision-makers as they move the conflict towards a desirable state. To present the result to users more clearly, another algorithm is developed to generate a table based on the diagram. An illustrative environmental conflict model is employed to demonstrate how these algorithms can be applied in practice and what significant insights can be garnered from the status quo analysis.

A designer often over-designs in solving a problem. This is necessary to minimize risk and to ensure safety during the lifetime of the product. This conservative design approach might not be too farfetched if robustness of the design is evaluated. One way to combat this approach is to set up a controller to identify the system correctly. A solution to such a problem relies on hypothesis of performances considering probabilities for both good and bad systems. Investigations have shown number of failures sufficiently lower than expected, while on some occasions a contrary situation is possible, which may lead to catastrophic events. This paper examines the robustness of low flow designs for the purpose of guaranteeing sufficient quantities of flow for wastewater assimilation. We evaluated the behavior of stream flow system about probability loss functions for acceptable failures. The analysis established ways to develop robustness criteria as measures towards a more reasonable conservative design.

A conceptual framework is proposed to understand the role of emotions in conflict. Taking a multidisciplinary approach, we suggest why the evaluation of emotions is crucial to the improvement of current conflict analysis and resolution techniques. We begin by outlining the critical features of a conflict. The use of appraisal theory for emotion activation and differentiation shows why conflict is often laden with emotion, and why emotion is relevant to conflict analysis. The confrontation between the United States and North Korea over nuclear weapons proliferation illustrates the emotional states associated with decision makers' positions. Our goal is to draw attention to the centrality of emotion in conflict and to the need for research on the incorporation of emotions into conflict analysis and resolution methods.

A comprehensive methodology is developed to achieve equitable, efficient and sustainable water allocation in a river basin. Water allocation is carried out in two steps: (1) allocation of initial water rights to water stakeholders and users based on existing water rights systems or agreements; and (2) reallocation of water and net benefits through water transfers to promote equitable cooperation of all stakeholders in a river basin and to achieve efficient use of water. Three methods, prior water rights, modified riparian water rights and lexicographic minimax demand shortage ratios, are proposed for the equitable initial water rights allocation. Using cooperative game theory carries the associated water transfers and net benefit reallocation.

The concept of a policy is developed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. More specifically, a policy is defined as an action plan from every possible state in a conflict for each player. A state forms what is called a policy stable state (PSS) if every player in a game does not prefer to move to another state given the other players' policies. The policies that cause a PSS constitute a policy equilibrium. Moreover, a refinement to PSS is suggested in order to take into account credible responses by players. Relationships with existing stability concepts in the graph model for conflict resolution are explored.

A comprehensive decision support system, GMCR II, is developed for the systematic study of real-world interactive decision problems. Model formulation is presented in Part I, and analysis and output interpretation in Part II. GMCR II is based upon existing and new research developments of the graph model for conflict resolution. In Part I, specially designed data structures and corresponding algorithms are implemented for generating and representing possible states, removing infeasible states, coalescing indistinguishable states, and specifying and storing allowable state transitions. Algorithms implementing different approaches to the elicitation of preferences over states enable GMCR II to construct and manage an efficient, flexible, and complete graph model of a strategic conflict.

For pt.I see ibid., p.42-55 (2003). The development of a comprehensive decision support system, GMCR II, for the systematic study of real-world interactive decision problems is presented. The companion paper (Part I), discusses how GMCR II elicits, stores, and manages conflict models; here (Part II), the focus is on GMCR IIs analysis and output interpretation subsystems. Specifically, this paper describes the powerful and efficient analysis engine contained in GMCR II, its informative output presentation and interpretation facilities, and a number of follow-up analyses. Furthermore, an illustrative case study is used to demonstrate how GMCR II can be conveniently applied in practice.

Two international exchange programs in engineering between universities in Japan and Canada, are described in order to explain the significant benefits gained by the undergraduate and graduate students, as well as the academic staff who participate, and to highlight key principles generally followed in the design and execution of exchange programs. One notable and successful engineering exchange program is between the University of Waterloo, located in Southern Ontario, Canada, and Tottori University in Japan, while the other is between the University of Waterloo and Kyoto University in Japan. Both of these programs include foreign students taking courses for credit or audit at the host university, and, for the case of graduate students, also receiving guidance in their research. Moreover, upon completion of one academic semester in Japan, all of the undergraduate Waterloo students studying at Tottori University are employed in Japanese industry for three to four months before returning to Canada. Of paramount importance to the education of the participating undergraduate and graduate students is the opportunity to learn, by first-hand experience, the language and culture of a foreign country. In fact, one of the key findings of a survey completed by Canadian and Japanese students who took part in the exchange programs, is that living in a different culture greatly enhanced their own personal development. The addition of this international perspective to a solid education in engineering opens many doors of opportunity for exchange program alumni, who are well prepared to fully participate in the global marketplace of the 21st century, and to assist society in responsibly reaching an equitable and sustainable future.

A new approach to dynamic conflict analysis is presented that integrates value-focused thinking and the graph model for conflict resolution. This approach is based on the premise that values are the driving forces behind the evolution of a conflict from one frame to another. Value-focused thinking is employed to identify the decision makers' values and objectives, which facilitate the establishment of a conflict model consisting of decision makers as well as each decision maker's options and preference rankings of states for each frame. A decision support system called GMCR II is utilized to analyze the conflict model and predict possible resolutions for each frame, which are assessed against the measures established from value-focused thinking for evaluating the achievement of objectives. A case study is presented to illustrate how the approach can be applied to a real world conflict.

Four types of solution concepts for modeling human behavior under conflict are defined to accommodate uncertainty in preferences. For a given decision-maker participating in a conflict the preference structure includes components to handle strict preference of one state over another, equal preference between states, and uncertainty or unknown preference when comparing two states or scenarios. Four distinct ways to incorporate uncertain preference information into the four types of solution concepts are considered and the "sustainable development game" is used to illustrate how the new solution concepts can be applied in practice and strategic insights that can be garnered.

Conflicts associated with fisheries are common and frequently attract significant public attention given the economic and social importance of this sector to coastal communities. The introduction of species-at-risk legislation, clarification of First Nations (aboriginal) fishing rights, globalization, and changing public expectations with respect to conservation and sustainability have significantly complicated the problem of conflict resolution. A number of examples of fisheries conflicts are described, and approaches to resolving them are discussed. Then the recent salmon aquaculture conflict in British Columbia, Canada is examined within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. The graph model permits the consideration of how parties in the conflict may strategically interact with one another as a consequence of each party selecting from the options under its control. The participants adopt relative preferences among the possible states or scenarios a priori and in response to the actions taken by other players in the conflict. The relative stability of different solutions provides useful insights into the behavior of the participants and the likelihood of future conflicts.

A new perspective in infrastructure management is put forward whereby institutional arrangements and physical facilities, as well as parts of the natural environment, are systematically coordinated to serve the common needs of different stakeholders in society in a sustainable fashion. Moreover, it is explained how emerging issues in infrastructure management can be properly addressed within this novel framework. One pressing issue, for example, is how to encourage cooperation and perhaps consensus among divergent stakeholders who envision different alternatives to infrastructure development, management and renewal. To facilitate conflict resolution, a range of techniques designed for handling multiple participant-multiple criteria problems are suggested.

A novel graphical input system for conflict modeling is designed for use as an interface to the analysis engine of the decision support system GMCR II, which implements the graph model for conflict resolution. The main advantage of the new input system is that it enables the user to draw the conflict model as a graph on the screen, i.e., modeling while drawing. Not only is the graphical input simpler, but it also helps the user to envision the conflict in proper perspective, getting a "big picture" uncluttered by details. Visio 2000 is selected as the graph drawing tool and the modeling is implemented through a Visio 2000 application program. Graphical input should be particularly useful for modeling real-world disputes, especially in early stages when the analyst only has a general idea of the strategic issues. When completed, the full system, Graphical GMCR, is expected to facilitate brainstorming and other techniques to generate creative solutions.

Game theory deals with decision-making processes involving two or more parties, also known as players, with partly or completely conflicting interests. Decision-makers in a conflict must often make their decisions under risk and under unclear or fuzzy information. In this paper, two distinct fuzzy approaches are employed to investigate an extensively studied 2/spl times/2 game model-the game of Chicken. The first approach uses a fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis method to obtain optimal strategies for the players. It incorporates subjective factors into the decision-makers' objectives and aggregates objectives using a weight vector. The second approach applies the theory of fuzzy moves (TFM) to the game of Chicken. The theory of moves (TOM) is designed to bring a dynamic dimension to the classical theory of games by allowing decision-makers to look ahead for one or several steps so that they can make a better decision. TOM is the crisp counterpart of TFM, the approach we implement here to deal with games that include fuzzy and uncertain information. The application of fuzzy approaches to the game of Chicken demonstrates their effectiveness in manipulating subjective, uncertain, and fuzzy information and provides valuable insights into the strategic aspects of Chicken.

The implementation and testing of a case-based reasoning system for conflict resolution is presented. The issues of case representation, case storage, case retrieval and case reuse are considered. Information on 104 conflict cases that have been analyzed using a methodology called the graph model for conflict resolution is collected and stored. The system is first tested and verified using the case base and then the system's ability to retrieve similar cases is evaluated.

In conflicts over large-scale infrastructure projects, public opinion may influence the preference structure of the players as they communicate with the general public who are considered to be outside of the game. We deal with the particular kind of conflict which allows for players' communication with the outside public which we shall call the public-open conflict. The major objective is to illustrate an example of a public-open conflict in an infrastructure project, by systematically examining a Japanese case study called the conflict over the Daiju-zeki (Daiju-weir) renewal project on the Yoshino River, Japan.

Integrates the art and science of risk analysis. Clearly shows how to quantify risk and construct probability in conjunction with real-world decision-making problems, including a host of institutional, organizational, political, and cultural considerations. Presents basic concepts as well as advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever possible. Incorporates numerous examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods under discussion. An accompanying web site will offer 200 example problems and case studies.

Information-gap (info-gap) modeling is put forth as a basic approach for enhancing decision making under uncertainty, especially when there is a high level of uncertainty and little information is available. The great need for having realistic techniques for describing severe uncertainty can be illustrated in water resource management by pointing out the wide range of uncertainties present in sustainable development when taking into account hydrological, socioeconomic, political, and other considerations. Some illustrative systems problems in watershed management are utilized to explain how info-gap modeling can be employed in practice.

The graph model for conflict resolution is put forward as a valuable service tool for providing strategic advice in multiple participant-multiple objective decision making situations. An international trading conflict over the sale of Canadian softwood lumber to customers in the United States is employed for demonstrating how the decision support system GMCR II can be utilized by managers and consultants for better understanding a conflict and its strategic implications. The objective is to furnish clients with insightful advice on how to make sage decisions within a competitive economic environment.

More efficient enforcement of environmental regulations would enhance environmental conditions around the globe by improving compliance to existing regulations and by allowing regulatory agencies to broaden their scope without increasing their budgets. This research analyzes comply-evade decisions by regulated firms in the context of their relationships with environmental agencies, and determines which enforcement policies effectively encourage voluntary compliance. More specifically, the enforcement conflict is modeled as a 2/spl times/2 non-cooperative game called the Enforcement Dilemma. This game is examined as a simultaneous game, and also as a more realistic sequential game with asymmetric information. Then a supergame based on the Enforcement Dilemma is developed and analyzed. An effective long-term policy called the review strategy is proposed to overcome the dilemma in this context.>

Meaningful connections among different types of decision making Situations are established in order to improve the development of useful decision technologies for application to real world problems. More specifically, an assertion is put forward that suggests that single participant-multiple criteria (SPMC) and multiple participant-single criterion (MPSC) decision making problems may be treated in essentially the same way. In this way, decision technologies that are already available can be suitably refined for use in studying both SPMC and MPSC decision situations. Another assertion is made that a multiple participant-multiple criteria (MPMC) decision situation can be converted to a MPSC decision situation. In order to simplify the explanation, illustrative applications are utilized throughout the paper. Finally, worthwhile directions for future research are summarized.>

An algorithm is developed for considering coalitions when formally analyzing a given conflict. The new methodology is employed for studying the 1979 Lancaster Peace Talks concerning the civil war in Zimbabwe. Following an historical description of the Zimbabwe controversy, the conflict is analyzed using an improved metagame stability analysis algorithm. A comprehensive procedure is then presented for incorporating coalition considerations into the stability analysis of the conflict. Furthermore, a metric is introduced to determine when coalitions are most likely to form. The results of the study are in agreement with the actual historical events.

Many complex problems may be modeled as conflicts, but until now a comprehensive technique for analyzing real world conflicts has not been available. A method is presented which permits the rapid assessment of complex conflict situations for the purpose of finding resolutions to a conflict, determining correct strategies, and enhancing one's understanding of the problem. The new technique is presented through a step by step example, and following this the mathematical basis for the analysis algorithm is developed. Finally, extensions to the procedure are presented through the analysis of the fall of France in 1940, an international water allocation conflict, and the Garrison Diversion Unit (GDU) irrigation project in North Dakota, U.S.A.