Social media popularity prediction of multimodal user-generated content (UGC) is a crucial task for many real-world applications. However, existing efforts are often limited by missing inter-instance correlations and UGC temporal patterns. To address these issues, we propose a novel time-aware hypergraph Transformer framework, THGFormer. It fully represents inter-instance and intra-instance relations by hypergraphs, captures the temporal dependencies with a time encoder, and enhances UGC's representations via a neighborhood knowledge aggregation. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world datasets demonstrate that THGFormer outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction models across several settings.

Accurately predicting the popularity of multimodal user-generated content (UGC) is fundamental for many real-world applications such as online advertising and recommendation. Existing approaches generally focus on limited contextual information within individual UGCs, yet overlook the potential benefit of exploiting meaningful knowledge in relevant UGCs. In this work, we propose RAGTrans, an aspect-aware retrieval-augmented multi-modal hypergraph transformer that retrieves pertinent knowledge from a multi-modal memory bank and enhances UGC representations via neighborhood knowledge aggregation on multi-model hypergraphs. In particular, we initially retrieve relevant multimedia instances from a large corpus of UGCs via the aspect information and construct a knowledge-enhanced hypergraph based on retrieved relevant instances. This allows capturing meaningful contextual information across the data. We then design a novel bootstrapping hypergraph transformer on multimodal hypergraphs to strengthen UGC representations across modalities via customizing a propagation algorithm to effectively diffuse information across nodes and edges. Additionally, we propose a user-aware attention-based fusion module to comprise the enriched UGC representations for popularity prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world social media datasets demonstrate that RAGTrans outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction models across settings.

Information diffusion prediction, which aims to infer the infected behavior of individual users during information spread, is critical for understanding the dynamics of information propagation and users' influence on online social media. To date, existing methods either focus on capturing limited contextual information from a single cascade, overlooking the potentially complex dependencies across different cascades, or they are committed to improving model performance by using intricate technologies to extract additional features as supplements to user representations, neglecting the drift of model performance across different platforms. To address these limitations, we propose a novel framework called CARE (CAscade-REtrieved In-Context Learning) inspired by the concept of in-context learning in LLMs. Specifically, CARE first constructs a prompts pool derived from historical cascades, then utilizes ranking-based search engine techniques to retrieve prompts with similar patterns based on the query. Moreover, CARE also introduces two augmentation strategies alongside social relationship enhancement to enrich the input context. Finally, the transformed query-cascade representation from a GPT-type architecture is projected to obtain the prediction. Experiments on real-world datasets from various platforms show that CARE outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in terms of effectiveness and robustness in information diffusion prediction.