In this paper, we develop a novel logic-based approach to detecting high-level temporally extended events from time-stamped data and background knowledge. Our framework employs logical rules to capture existence and termination conditions for simple temporal events and to combine these into meta-events. In the medical domain, for example, disease episodes and therapies are inferred from timestamped clinical observations, such as diagnoses and drug administrations stored in patient records, and can be further combined into higher-level disease events. As some incorrect events might be inferred, we use constraints to identify incompatible combinations of events and propose a repair mechanism to select preferred consistent sets of events. While reasoning in the full framework is intractable, we identify relevant restrictions that ensure polynomial-time data complexity. Our prototype system implements core components of the approach using answer set programming. An evaluation on a lung cancer use case supports the interest of the approach, both in terms of computational feasibility and positive alignment of our results with medical expert opinions. While strongly motivated by the needs of the healthcare domain, our framework is purposely generic, enabling its reuse in other areas.

In this work, we aimed at forecasting the number of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized patients at 14 days to help anticipate the bed requirements of a large scale hospital using public data and electronic health records data. Previous attempts led to mitigated performance in this high-dimension setting; we introduce a novel approach to time series forecasting by providing an alternative to conventional methods to deal with high number of potential features of interest (409 predictors). We integrate Reservoir Computing (RC) with feature selection using a genetic algorithm (GA) to gather optimal non-linear combinations of inputs to improve prediction in sample-efficient context. We illustrate that the RC-GA combination exhibits excellent performance in forecasting SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations. This approach outperformed the use of RC alone and other conventional methods: LSTM, Transformers, Elastic-Net, XGBoost. Notably, this work marks the pioneering use of RC (along with GA) in the realm of short and high-dimensional time series, positioning it as a competitive and innovative approach in comparison to standard methods.

OBJECTIVE: The Consortium for Clinical Characterization of COVID-19 by EHR (4CE) is an international collaboration addressing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with federated analyses of electronic health record (EHR) data. We sought to develop and validate a computable phenotype for COVID-19 severity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twelve 4CE sites participated. First, we developed an EHR-based severity phenotype consisting of 6 code classes, and we validated it on patient hospitalization data from the 12 4CE clinical sites against the outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death. We also piloted an alternative machine learning approach and compared selected predictors of severity with the 4CE phenotype at 1 site. RESULTS: The full 4CE severity phenotype had pooled sensitivity of 0.73 and specificity 0.83 for the combined outcome of ICU admission and/or death. The sensitivity of individual code categories for acuity had high variability-up to 0.65 across sites. At one pilot site, the expert-derived phenotype had mean area under the curve of 0.903 (95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.921), compared with an area under the curve of 0.956 (95% confidence interval, 0.952-0.959) for the machine learning approach. Billing codes were poor proxies of ICU admission, with as low as 49% precision and recall compared with chart review. DISCUSSION: We developed a severity phenotype using 6 code classes that proved resilient to coding variability across international institutions. In contrast, machine learning approaches may overfit hospital-specific orders. Manual chart review revealed discrepancies even in the gold-standard outcomes, possibly owing to heterogeneous pandemic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an EHR-based severity phenotype for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and validated it at 12 international sites.

OBJECTIVE: When studying any specific rare disease, heterogeneity and scarcity of affected individuals has historically hindered investigators from discerning on what to focus to understand and diagnose a disease. New nongenomic methodologies must be developed that identify similarities in seemingly dissimilar conditions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This observational study analyzes 1042 patients from the Undiagnosed Diseases Network (2015-2019), a multicenter, nationwide research study using phenotypic data annotated by specialized staff using Human Phenotype Ontology terms. We used Louvain community detection to cluster patients linked by Jaccard pairwise similarity and 2 support vector classifier to assign new cases. We further validated the clusters' most representative comorbidities using a national claims database (67 million patients). RESULTS: Patients were divided into 2 groups: those with symptom onset before 18 years of age (n = 810) and at 18 years of age or older (n = 232) (average symptom onset age: 10 [interquartile range, 0-14] years). For 810 pediatric patients, we identified 4 statistically significant clusters. Two clusters were characterized by growth disorders, and developmental delay enriched for hypotonia presented a higher likelihood of diagnosis. Support vector classifier showed 0.89 balanced accuracy (0.83 for Human Phenotype Ontology terms only) on test data. DISCUSSIONS: To set the framework for future discovery, we chose as our endpoint the successful grouping of patients by phenotypic similarity and provide a classification tool to assign new patients to those clusters. CONCLUSION: This study shows that despite the scarcity and heterogeneity of patients, we can still find commonalities that can potentially be harnessed to uncover new insights and targets for therapy.