Ensuring the reliability and availability of cloud services necessitates efficient root cause analysis (RCA) for cloud incidents. Traditional RCA methods, which rely on manual investigations of data sources such as logs and traces, are often laborious, error-prone, and challenging for on-call engineers. In this paper, we introduce RCACopilot, an innovative on-call system empowered by the large language model for automating RCA of cloud incidents. RCACopilot matches incoming incidents to corresponding incident handlers based on their alert types, aggregates the critical runtime diagnostic information, predicts the incident's root cause category, and provides an explanatory narrative. We evaluate RCACopilot using a real-world dataset consisting of a year's worth of incidents from Microsoft. Our evaluation demonstrates that RCACopilot achieves RCA accuracy up to 0.766. Furthermore, the diagnostic information collection component of RCACopilot has been successfully in use at Microsoft for over four years.

Incident management for cloud services is a complex process involving several steps and has a huge impact on both service health and developer productivity. On-call engineers require significant amount of domain knowledge and manual effort for root causing and mitigation of production incidents. Recent advances in artificial intelligence has resulted in state-of-the-art large language models like GPT-3.x (both GPT-3.0 and GPT-3.5), which have been used to solve a variety of problems ranging from question answering to text summarization. In this work, we do the first large-scale study to evaluate the effectiveness of these models for helping engineers root cause and mitigate production incidents. We do a rigorous study at Microsoft, on more than 40,000 incidents and compare several large language models in zero-shot, fine-tuned and multi-task setting using semantic and lexical metrics. Lastly, our human evaluation with actual incident owners show the efficacy and future potential of using artificial intelligence for resolving cloud incidents.

There is increasing interest in data-driven approaches for recommending optimal treatment strategies in many chronic disease management and critical care applications. Reinforcement learning methods are well-suited to this sequential decision-making problem, but must be trained and evaluated exclusively on retrospective medical record datasets as direct online exploration is unsafe and infeasible. Despite this requirement, the vast majority of treatment optimization studies use off-policy RL methods (e.g., Double Deep Q Networks (DDQN) or its variants) that are known to perform poorly in purely offline settings. Recent advances in offline RL, such as Conservative Q-Learning (CQL), offer a suitable alternative. But there remain challenges in adapting these approaches to real-world applications where suboptimal examples dominate the retrospective dataset and strict safety constraints need to be satisfied. In this work, we introduce a practical and theoretically grounded transition sampling approach to address action imbalance during offline RL training. We perform extensive experiments on two real-world tasks for diabetes and sepsis treatment optimization to compare performance of the proposed approach against prominent off-policy and offline RL baselines (DDQN and CQL). Across a range of principled and clinically relevant metrics, we show that our proposed approach enables substantial improvements in expected health outcomes and in consistency with relevant practice and safety guidelines.

Cloud providers use automated watchdogs or monitors to continuously observe service availability and to proactively report incidents when system performance degrades. Improper monitoring can lead to delays in the detection and mitigation of production incidents, which can be extremely expensive in terms of customer impacts and manual toil from engineering resources. Therefore, a systematic understanding of the pitfalls in current monitoring practices and how they can lead to production incidents is crucial for ensuring continuous reliability of cloud services.

Site Reliability Engineers (SREs) play a key role in identifying the cause of an issue and preforming remediation steps to resolve it. After an issue is reported, SREs come together in a virtual room (collaboration platform) to triage the issue. While doing so, they leave behind a wealth of information, in the form of conversations, which can be used later for triaging similar issues. However, usability of these conversations offer challenges due to them being and scarcity of conversation utterance label. This paper presents a novel approach for issue artefact extraction from noisy conversations with minimal labelled data. We propose a combination of unsupervised and supervised models with minimal human intervention that leverages domain knowledge to predict artefacts for a small amount of conversation data and use that for fine-tuning an already pre-trained language model for artefact prediction on a large amount of conversation data. Experimental results on our dataset show that the proposed ensemble of the unsupervised and supervised models is better than using either one of them individually. We also present a deployment case study of the proposed artefact prediction.

Production incidents in today's large-scale cloud services can be extremely expensive in terms of customer impacts and engineering resources required to mitigate them. Despite continuous reliability efforts, cloud services still experience severe incidents due to various root-causes. Worse, many of these incidents last for a long period as existing techniques and practices fail to quickly detect and mitigate them. To better understand the problems, we carefully study hundreds of recent high severity incidents and their postmortems in Microsoft-Teams, a large-scale distributed cloud based service used by hundreds of millions of users. We answer: (a) why the incidents occurred and how they were resolved, (b) what the gaps were in current processes which caused delayed response, and (c) what automation could help make the services resilient. Finally, we uncover interesting insights by a novel multi-dimensional analysis that correlates different troubleshooting stages (detection, root-causing and mitigation), and provide guidance on how to tackle complex incidents through automation or testing at different granularity.

We propose a framework, called neural-progressive hedging (NP), that leverages stochastic programming during the online phase of executing a reinforcement learning (RL) policy. The goal is to ensure feasibility with respect to constraints and risk-based objectives such as conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) during the execution of the policy, using probabilistic models of the state transitions to guide policy adjustments. The framework is particularly amenable to the class of sequential resource allocation problems since feasibility with respect to typical resource constraints cannot be enforced in a scalable manner. The NP framework provides an alternative that adds modest overhead during the online phase. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the NP framework on two continuous real-world tasks: (i) the portfolio optimization problem with liquidity constraints for financial planning, characterized by non-stationary state distributions; and (ii) the dynamic repositioning problem in bike sharing systems, that embodies the class of supply-demand matching problems. We show that the NP framework produces policies that are better than deep RL and other baseline approaches, adapting to non-stationarity, whilst satisfying structural constraints and accommodating risk measures in the resulting policies. Additional benefits of the NP framework are ease of implementation and better explainability of the policies.

In bike sharing systems (BSSs), the uncoordinated movements of customers using bikes lead to empty or congested stations, which causes a significant loss in customer demand. In order to reduce the lost demand, a wide variety of existing research has employed a fixed set of historical demand patterns to design efficient bike repositioning solutions. However, the progress remains slow in understanding the underlying uncertainties in demand and designing proactive robust bike repositioning solutions. To bridge this gap, we propose a dynamic bike repositioning approach based on a probabilistic satisficing method which uses the uncertain demand parameters that are learnt from historical data. We develop a novel and computationally efficient mixed integer linear program for maximizing the probability of satisfying the uncertain demand so as to improve the overall customer satisfaction and efficiency of the system. Extensive experimental results from a simulation model built on a real-world bike sharing data set demonstrate that our approach is not only robust to uncertainties in customer demand, but also outperforms the existing state-of-the-art repositioning approaches in terms of reducing the expected lost demand.

Plant-pollinator interaction networks are bipartite networks representing the mutualistic interactions between a set of plant species and a set of pollinator species. Data on these networks are collected by field biologists, who count visits from pollinators to flowers. Ecologists study the structure and function of these networks for scientific, conservation, and agricultural purposes. However, little research has been done to understand the underlying mechanisms that determine pairwise interactions or to predict new links from networks describing the species community. This paper explores the use of latent factor models to predict interactions that will occur in new contexts (e.g. a different distribution of the set of plant species) based on an observed network. The analysis draws on algorithms and evaluation strategies developed for recommendation systems and introduces them to this new domain. The matrix factorization methods compare favorably against several baselines on a pollination dataset collected in montane meadows over several years. Incorporating both positive and negative implicit feedback into the matrix factorization methods is particularly promising.

Bike Sharing Systems (BSSs) are widely adopted in major cities of the world due to concerns associated with extensive private vehicle usage, namely, increased carbon emissions, traffic congestion and usage of nonrenewable resources. In a BSS, base stations are strategically placed throughout a city and each station is stocked with a pre-determined number of bikes at the beginning of the day. Customers hire the bikes from one station and return them at another station. Due to unpredictable movements of customers hiring bikes, there is either congestion (more than required) or starvation (fewer than required) of bikes at base stations. Existing data has shown that congestion/starvation is a common phenomenon that leads to a large number of unsatisfied customers resulting in a significant loss in customer demand. In order to tackle this problem, we propose an optimisation formulation to reposition bikes using vehicles while also considering the routes for vehicles and future expected demand. Furthermore, we contribute two approaches that rely on decomposability in the problem (bike repositioning and vehicle routing) and aggregation of base stations to reduce the computation time significantly. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our approach by comparing against two benchmark approaches on two real-world data sets of bike sharing systems. These approaches are evaluated using a simulation where the movements of customers are generated from real-world data sets.

Vehicle sharing (ex: bike sharing, car sharing) systems, an attractive alternative of private transportation, are widely adopted in major cities around the world. In vehicle-sharing systems, base stations (ex: docking stations for bikes) are strategically placed throughout a city and each of the base stations contain a pre-determined number of vehicles at the beginning of each day. Due to the stochastic and individualistic movement of customers, there is typically either congestion (more than required) or starvation (fewer than required) of vehicles at certain base stations, which causes a significant loss in demand. We propose to dynamically redeploy idle vehicles using carriers so as to minimize lost demand or alternatively maximize revenue for the vehicle sharing company. To that end, we contribute an optimization formulation to jointly address the redeployment (of vehicles) and routing (of carriers) problems and provide two approaches that rely on decomposability and abstraction of problem domains to reduce the computation time significantly.