Accurate health risk prediction is crucial for making informed clinical decisions and assessing the appropriate allocation of medical resources. While recent deep learning based approaches have shown great promise in risk prediction, they primarily focus on modeling the sequential information in Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and fail to leverage the rich mobility interactions among health entities. As a result, the existing approaches yield unsatisfactory performance in downstream risk prediction tasks, especially tasks such as Clostridioides difficile Infection (CDI) incidence prediction that are primarily spread through mobility interactions. To address this issue, we propose a new approach that leverages Hypergraphs to explicitly model mobility interactions to improve predictive performance in health risk prediction tasks. Unlike regular graphs that are limited to modeling pairwise relationships, hypergraphs can effectively characterize the complex high-order semantic relationships between patients. Moreover, we introduce a new contrastive learning strategy that exploits the domain knowledge to generate semantically meaningful positive (homologous) and negative (heterologous) pairs needed for contrastive learning. This unique contrastive pair augmentation strategy boosts the power of contrastive learning by generating feature representations that are both robust and well-aligned with the domain knowledge. Experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the advantage of our approach in both short-term and long-term risk prediction tasks, such as CDI incidence prediction and MICU transfer prediction. Our framework obtains gains in performance up to 29.49 % for PHOP, 30.64 % for MIMIC-IV for MICU transfer prediction, 13.17 % for PHOP, and 4.45 % for MIMIC-IV for CDI Incidence Prediction.

Predicting the edge weights of a graph is a critical task across many domains. Some examples include predicting traffic flow in transportation networks, strength of interactions in protein-protein networks, and collaboration frequency in co-authorship networks. Graph Neural Networks have been very successful in edge-weight prediction tasks. However, these predictions lack rigorous statistical uncertainty quantification. Recent work has demonstrated the efficacy of conformal inference in quantifying the uncertainties of the predictions made by graph neural networks. However, there has been limited research in conformal inference for edge-weight prediction.

One of the most significant challenges in combating against the spread of infectious diseases was the difficulty in estimating the true magnitude of infections. Unreported infections could drive up disease spread, making it very hard to accurately estimate the infectivity of the pathogen, therewith hampering our ability to react effectively. Despite the use of surveillance-based methods such as serological studies, identifying the true magnitude is still challenging. This paper proposes an information theoretic approach for accurately estimating the number of total infections. Our approach is built on top of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) based models, which are commonly used in epidemiology and for estimating such infections. We show how we can help such models to better compute the number of total infections and identify the parametrization by which we need the fewest bits to describe the observed dynamics of reported infections. Our experiments on COVID-19 spread show that our approach leads to not only substantially better estimates of the number of total infections but also better forecasts of infections than standard model calibration based methods. We additionally show how our learned parametrization helps in modeling more accurate what-if scenarios with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our approach provides a general method for improving epidemic modeling which is applicable broadly.

While the worst of COVID-19 pandemic has most likely passed us, an occurrence of equally devastating global pandemic or regional epidemic cannot be ruled out in future. H1N1, Zika, SARS, MERS, and Ebola outbreaks over the past few decades have sharply illustrated our enormous vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases. While the data mining research community has demonstrated increased interest in epidemiological applications, much is still left to be desired. For example, there is an urgent need to develop sound theoretical principles and transformative computational approaches that will allow us to address the escalating threat of current and future pandemics. Data mining and knowledge discovery have an important role to play in this regard. Different aspects of infectious disease modeling, analysis, and control have traditionally been studied within the confines of individual disciplines, such as mathematical epidemiology and public health, and data mining and machine learning. Coupled with increasing data generation across multiple domains/sources (e.g., wastewater surveillance, electronic medical records, and social media), there is a clear need for analyzing them to inform public health policies and outcomes timely. Recent advances in disease surveillance and forecasting, and initiatives such as the CDC Flu Challenge, CDC COVID-19 Forecasting Hub etc., have brought these disciplines closer together. On the one hand, public health practitioners seek to use novel datasets, such as Safegraph, Unacast, and Google mobility data, and techniques like Graph Neural Networks. On the other hand, researchers from data mining and machine learning develop novel tools for solving many fundamental problems in the public health policy planning and decision-making process, leveraging novel datasets (e.g., COVID-19 behavioral health surveys, contact tracing trees, and satellite images of urban streets) and combining them with more traditional time series information (e.g., surveillance, hospitalization, and death records). We believe the next stage of advances will result from closer collaborations between these two groups, which is the main objective of epiDAMIK.

Implicit graph neural networks have gained popularity in recent years as they capture long-range dependencies while improving predictive performance in static graphs. Despite the tussle between performance degradation due to the oversmoothing of learned embeddings and long-range dependency being more pronounced in dynamic graphs, as features are aggregated both across neighborhood and time, no prior work has proposed an implicit graph neural model in a dynamic setting.

Continual learning has emerged as a powerful approach to address the challenges of non-stationary environments, allowing machine learning models to adapt to new data while retaining the previously acquired knowledge. In time-sensitive healthcare applications, where entities such as physicians, hospital rooms, and medications exhibit continuous changes over time, continual learning holds great promise, yet its application remains relatively unexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap by proposing a novel framework, i.e., Continually-Adaptive Representation Learning, designed to adapt representations in response to changing data distributions in evolving healthcare applications. Specifically, the proposed approach develops a continual learning strategy wherein the context information (e.g., interactions) of healthcare entities is exploited to continually identify and retrain the representations of those entities whose context evolved over time. Moreover, different from existing approaches, the proposed approach leverages the valuable patient information present in clinical notes to generate accurate and robust healthcare embeddings. Notably, the proposed continually-adaptive representations are have practical benefits in low-resource clinical settings where it is difficult to training machine learning models from scratch to accommodate the newly available data streams. Experimental evaluations on real-world healthcare datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in time-sensitive healthcare applications such as Clostridioides difficile (C.diff) Infection (CDI) incidence prediction task and medical intensive care unit transfer prediction task.

The epiDAMIK workshop serves as a platform for advancing the utilization of data-driven methods in the fields of epidemiology and public health research. These fields have seen relatively limited exploration of data-driven approaches compared to other disciplines. Therefore, our primary objective is to foster the growth and recognition of the emerging discipline of data-driven and computational epidemiology, providing a valuable avenue for sharing state-of-the-art research and ongoing projects. The workshop also seeks to showcase results that are not typically presented at major computing conferences, including valuable insights gained from practical experiences. Our target audience encompasses researchers in AI, machine learning, and data science from both academia and industry, who have a keen interest in applying their work to epidemiological and public health contexts. Additionally, we welcome practitioners from mathematical epidemiology and public health, as their expertise and contributions greatly enrich the discussions. Homepage: https://epidamik.github.io/

As hospitals move towards automating and integrating their computing systems, more fine-grained hospital operations data are becoming available. These data include hospital architectural drawings, logs of interactions between patients and healthcare professionals, prescription data, procedures data, and data on patient admission, discharge, and transfers. This has opened up many fascinating avenues for healthcare-related prediction tasks for improving patient care. However, in order to leverage off-the-shelf machine learning software for these tasks, one needs to learn structured representations of entities involved from heterogeneous, dynamic data streams. Here, we propose DECENT, an auto-encoding heterogeneous co-evolving dynamic neural network, for learning heterogeneous dynamic embeddings of patients, doctors, rooms, and medications from diverse data streams. These embeddings capture similarities among doctors, rooms, patients, and medications based on static attributes and dynamic interactions. DECENT enables several applications in healthcare prediction, such as predicting mortality risk and case severity of patients, adverse events (e.g., transfer back into an intensive care unit), and future healthcare-associated infections. The results of using the learned patient embeddings in predictive modeling show that DECENT has a gain of up to 48.1% on the mortality risk prediction task, 12.6% on the case severity prediction task, 6.4% on the medical intensive care unit transfer task, and 3.8% on the Clostridioides difficile (C.diff) Infection (CDI) prediction task over the state-of-the-art baselines. In addition, case studies on the learned doctor, medication, and room embeddings show that our approach learns meaningful and interpretable embeddings.

Healthcare associated infections (HAIs) impose a substantial burden, both on patients and on the healthcare system. Designing effective strategies by using interventions such as vaccination, isolation, cleaning, mobility modification, etc., to reduce HAI spread is an important computational challenge. Spectral approaches are quite useful for modeling and solving problems of reducing disease spread over contact networks, but they have not been used for disease-spread models and contact networks that are specific for HAIs. Our main contribution in this paper is to close this gap. We make 3 specific contributions. (i) We present the first epidemic threshold results on temporal bipartite networks, i.e., a time-varying sequence of bipartite people-location network, for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. (ii) We leverage our epidemic threshold result to pose the HAI mitigation problem as minimizing the spectral radius of the system matrix, while removing few nodes or edges. We present a scalable combinatorial algorithm that provides approximation guarantees. (iii) Through extensive experiments on actual healthcare contact networks derived from operations data from the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, Carilion Clinic, and several other healthcare facilities, we show that our algorithm consistently outperforms a number of baselines (random, degree, top-k, eigen centrality) both in terms of reducing the spectral radius of the system matrix and in terms of reducing infections.

Similar to previous iterations, the epiDAMIK @ KDD workshop is a forum to promote data driven approaches in epidemiology and public health research. Even after the devastating impact of COVID-19 pandemic, data driven approaches are not as widely studied in epidemiology, as they are in other spaces. We aim to promote and raise the profile of the emerging research area of data-driven and computational epidemiology, and create a venue for presenting state-of-the-art and in-progress results-in particular, results that would otherwise be difficult to present at a major data mining conference, including lessons learnt in the 'trenches'. The current COVID-19 pandemic has only showcased the urgency and importance of this area. Our target audience consists of data mining and machine learning researchers from both academia and industry who are interested in epidemiological and public-health applications of their work, and practitioners from the areas of mathematical epidemiology and public health. Homepage: https://epidamik.github.io/.

This paper studies the problem of detecting asymptomatic cases in a temporal contact network in which multiple outbreaks have occurred. For many infections, asymptomatic cases present a major obstacle to obtaining a precise understanding of infection-spread. We show that the key to detecting asymptomatic cases well, is taking into account both individual risk as well as the likelihood of disease-flow along edges. Most related research has ignored the interplay between these dual aspects influencing disease-spread. We take both aspects into account by formulating the asymptomatic case detection problem as a Directed Prize-Collecting Steiner Tree (DIRECTED PCST) problem. We present an approximation-preserving reduction from this problem to the Directed Steiner Tree problem and use this reduction to obtain scalable algorithms for the DIRECTED PCST problem. Using these algorithms, we solve instances with more than 1.5M edges obtained from both synthetic and actual fine-grained hospital data. On synthetic data, we demonstrate that our detection methods significantly outperform various baselines (with a gain of $3.6 \times$). As an application of our methods, we use a measure of exposure to detected asymptomatic Clostridioides difficile (C. diff) infection (CDI) cases as an additional feature for the important task of predicting symptomatic CDI cases. In this application, our method outperforms all baselines, including those that don’t use asymptomatic CDI cases as a feature and those that use other methods for detecting asymptomatic CDI cases. We also demonstrate that the solutions returned by our approach are clinically meaningful by presenting a case study.

The 4th [email protected] workshop is a forum to discuss new insights into how data mining can play a bigger role in epidemiology and public health research. While the integration of data science methods into epidemiology has significant potential, it remains under studied. We aim to raise the profile of this emerging research area of data-driven and computational epidemiology, and create a venue for presenting state-of-the-art and in-progress results-in particular, results that would otherwise be difficult to present at a major data mining conference, including lessons learnt in the 'trenches'. The current COVID-19 pandemic has only showcased the urgency and importance of this area. Our target audience consists of data mining and machine learning researchers from both academia and industry who are interested in epidemiological and public-health applications of their work, and practitioners from the areas of mathematical epidemiology and public health.

Can we infer all the failed components of an infrastructure network, given a sample of reachable nodes from supply nodes? One of the most critical post-disruption processes after a natural disaster is to quickly determine the damage or failure states of critical infrastructure components. However, this is nontrivial, considering that often only a fraction of components may be accessible or observable after a disruptive event. Past work has looked into inferring failed components given point probes, i.e. with a direct sample of failed components. In contrast, we study the harder problem of inferring failed components given partial information of some `serviceable' reachable nodes and a small sample of point probes, being the first often more practical to obtain. We formulate this novel problem using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, and then present a greedy algorithm that minimizes MDL cost effectively. We evaluate our algorithm on domain-expert simulations of real networks in the aftermath of an earthquake. Our algorithm successfully identifies failed components, especially the critical ones affecting the overall system performance.

Influenza leads to regular losses of lives annually and requires careful monitoring and control by health organizations. Annual influenza forecasts help policymakers implement effective countermeasures to control both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. Existing forecasting techniques suffer from problems such as poor forecasting performance, lack of modeling flexibility, data sparsity, and/or lack of intepretability. We propose EpiDeep, a novel deep neural network approach for epidemic forecasting which tackles all of these issues by learning meaningful representations of incidence curves in a continuous feature space and accurately predicting future incidences, peak intensity, peak time, and onset of the upcoming season. We present extensive experiments on forecasting ILI (influenza-like illnesses) in the United States, leveraging multiple metrics to quantify success. Our results demonstrate that EpiDeep is successful at learning meaningful embeddings and, more importantly, that these embeddings evolve as the season progresses. Furthermore, our approach outperforms non-trivial baselines by up to 40%.

Given a network, can we visualize it for any given task, highlighting the important characteristics? Networks are widespread, and hence summarizing and visualizing them is of primary interest for many applications such as viral marketing, extracting communities and immunization. Summaries can help in solving new problems in visualization, sense-making, and in many other goals. However, most prior work focuses on generic structural summarization techniques or on developing specific algorithms for specific tasks. This is both tedious and challenging. As a result, for several popular tasks, there do not exist readymade summarization methods. In this paper, we explore a promising alternative approach instead. We propose NetGist, a framework which automatically learns how to generate a summary for a given task on a given network. In addition to generating the required summary, this also allows us to reuse the learned process on other similar networks. We formulate a novel task-based graph summarization problem and leverage reinforcement learning to design a flexible framework for our solution. Via extensive experiments, we show that NetGist robustly and effectively learns meaningful summaries, and helps solve challenging problems, and aids in complex task-based sense-making of networks.

Cascades are an accepted model to capturing how information diffuses across social network platforms. A large body of research has been focused on dissecting the anatomy of such cascades and forecasting their progression. One recurring theme involves predicting the next stage(s) of cascades utilizing pertinent information such as the underlying social network, structural properties of nodes (e.g., degree) and (partial) histories of cascade propagation. However, such type of granular information is rarely available in practice. We study in this paper the problem of cascade prediction utilizing only two types of (coarse) information, viz. which node is infected and its corresponding infection time. We first construct several simple baselines to solve this cascade prediction problem. Then we describe the shortcomings of these methods and propose a new solution leveraging recent progress in embeddings and attention models from representation learning. We also perform an exhaustive analysis of our methods on several real world datasets. Our proposed model outperforms the baselines and several other state-of-the-art methods.

In many applications, such as the Internet and infrastructure networks, nodes fail or get congested dynamically. We study the problem of inferring all the failed nodes, when only a sample of the failures is known, and there exist correlations between node failures/congestion in networks. We formalize this as the GraphStateInf problem, using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. We propose the GraphMap algorithm for minimizing the MDL cost, and show that it gives an additive approximation, relative to the optimal. We evaluate our methods on synthetic and real datasets, which includes one from WAZE which gives traffic incident reports for the city of Boston. We find that our method gives promising results in recovering the missing failures.

Customer Interaction Networks (CINs) are a natural framework for representing and mining customer interactions with E-Commerce search engines. Customer interactions begin with the submission of a query formulated based on an initial product intent, followed by a sequence of product engagement and query reformulation actions. Engagement with a product (e.g. clicks) indicates its relevance to the customer»s product intent. Reformulation to a new query indicates either dissatisfaction with current results, or an evolution in the customer»s product intent. Analyzing such interactions within and across sessions, enables us to discover various query-query and query-product relationships. In this work, we begin by studying the properties of CINs developed using Walmart.com»s product search logs. We observe that the properties exhibited by CINs make it possible to mine intent relationships between queries based purely on their structural information. We show how these relations can be exploited for a) clustering queries based on intents, b) significantly improve search quality for poorly performing queries, and c) identify the most influential (aka. »critical») queries whose performance have the highest impact on performance of other queries.

Modern networks are very large in size and also evolve with time. As their sizes grow, the complexity of performing network analysis grows as well. Getting a smaller representation of a temporal network with similar properties will help in various data mining tasks. In this paper, we study the novel problem of getting a smaller diffusion-equivalent representation of a set of time-evolving networks. We first formulate a well-founded and general temporal-network condensation problem based on the so-called systemmatrix of the network. We then propose NETCONDENSE, a scalable and effective algorithm which solves this problem using careful transformations in sub-quadratic running time, and linear space complexities. Our extensive experiments show that we can reduce the size of large real temporal networks (from multiple domains such as social, co-authorship, and email) significantly without much loss of information. We also show the wide-applicability of NETCONDENSE by leveraging it for several tasks: for example, we use it to understand, explore, and visualize the original datasets and to also speed-up algorithms for the influence-maximization and event detection problems on temporal networks.

Modern networks are very large in size and also evolve with time. As their size grows, the complexity of performing network analysis grows as well. Getting a smaller representation of a temporal network with similar properties will help in various data mining tasks. In this paper, we study the novel problem of getting a smaller diffusion-equivalent representation of a set of time-evolving networks. We first formulate a well-founded and general temporal-network condensation problem based on the so-called system-matrix of the network. We then propose NetCon-dense, a scalable and effective algorithm which solves this problem using careful transformations in sub-quadratic running time, and linear space complexities. Our extensive experiments show that we can reduce the size of large real temporal networks (from multiple domains such as social, co-authorship and email) significantly without much loss of information. We also show the wide-applicability of Net-Condense by leveraging it for several tasks: for example, we use it to understand, explore and visualize the original datasets and to also speed-up algorithms for the influence-maximization problem on temporal networks.

Given a social network, how to find communities of nodes based on their diffusive characteristics? There exist two important types of nodes, for information propagation: nodes that are influential (“kernel nodes”), and nodes that serve as “bridges” to boost the diffusion (“media nodes”). How to find these nodes and uncover connections between them? In addition, it is also important to discover the hidden community structure of these nodes, which can help study their interactions, predict links and also understand the information flow in such networks. In this paper, we give an intuitive and novel optimization-based formulation for this task, which aims to discover media nodes as well as community structures of kernel nodes. We prove our task is computationally challenging, and develop an effective and practical algorithm MeiKe (pronounced as ‘Mike’). It first obtains media nodes via a new successive summarization based approach, and then finds kernel nodes including their community structures. Experimental results show that MeiKe finds high-quality media and kernel communities which match our expectations and ground-truth (outperforming non-trivial baselines by 40% in F1-score). Our case studies also demonstrate the applicability of MeiKe on a variety of datasets.