Murat A. Erdogdu

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53ranked-venue papers
10as first author
37since 2021 · last 2025
0000-0002-4271-8921ORCID · corroborated

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Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 51 · 9 first-author · 36 since 2021Databases, data management, data science and information retrieval · 1Graphics, computer vision, multimedia, augmented reality and games · 1 · 1 since 2021Theory of computation · 1 · 1 since 2021Applied, interdisciplinary, general and emerging computing · 1 · 1 first-author
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2025 Robust Feature Learning for Multi-Index Models in High Dimensions
abstract
Recently, there have been numerous studies on feature learning with neural networks, specifically on learning single- and multi-index models where the target is a function of a low-dimensional projection of the input. Prior works have shown that in high dimensions, the majority of the compute and data resources are spent on recovering the low-dimensional projection; once this subspace is recovered, the remainder of the target can be learned independently of the ambient dimension. However, implications of feature learning in adversarial settings remain unexplored. In this work, we take the first steps towards understanding adversarially robust feature learning with neural networks. Specifically, we prove that the hidden directions of a multi-index model offer a Bayes optimal low-dimensional projection for robustness against $\ell_2$-bounded adversarial perturbations under the squared loss, assuming that the multi-index coordinates are statistically independent from the rest of the coordinates. Therefore, robust learning can be achieved by first performing standard feature learning, then robustly tuning a linear readout layer on top of the standard representations. In particular, we show that adversarially robust learning is just as easy as standard learning. Specifically, the additional number of samples needed to robustly learn multi-index models when compared to standard learning, does not depend on dimensionality.
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Adel Javanmard, Murat A. Erdogdu
ICLR3
2025 Learning Multi-Index Models with Neural Networks via Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics
abstract
We study the problem of learning multi-index models in high-dimensions using a two-layer neural network trained with the mean-field Langevin algorithm. Under mild distributional assumptions on the data, we characterize the effective dimension $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$ that controls both sample and computational complexity by utilizing the adaptivity of neural networks to latent low-dimensional structures. When the data exhibit such a structure, $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$ can be significantly smaller than the ambient dimension. We prove that the sample complexity grows almost linearly with $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$, bypassing the limitations of the information and generative exponents that appeared in recent analyses of gradient-based feature learning. On the other hand, the computational complexity may inevitably grow exponentially with $d_{\mathrm{eff}}$ in the worst-case scenario. Motivated by improving computational complexity, we take the first steps towards polynomial time convergence of the mean-field Langevin algorithm by investigating a setting where the weights are constrained to be on a compact manifold with positive Ricci curvature, such as the hypersphere. There, we study assumptions under which polynomial time convergence is achievable, whereas similar assumptions in the Euclidean setting lead to exponential time complexity.
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Denny Wu, Murat A. Erdogdu
ICLR3
2025 Categorical Distributional Reinforcement Learning with Kullback-Leibler Divergence: Convergence and Asymptotics
abstract
We study the problem of distributional reinforcement learning using categorical parametrisations and a KL divergence loss. Previous work analyzing categorical distributional RL has done so using a Cramér distance-based loss, simplifying the analysis but creating a theory-practice gap. We introduce a preconditioned version of the algorithm, and prove that it is guaranteed to converge. We further derive the asymptotic variance of the categorical estimates under different learning rate regimes, and compare to that of classical reinforcement learning. We finally empirically validate our theoretical results and perform an empirical investigation into the relative strengths of using KL losses, and derive a number of actionable insights for practitioners.
Tyler Kastner, Mark Rowland 0001, Yunhao Tang, Murat A. Erdogdu, Amir-massoud Farahmand
ICML4
2025 Learning quadratic neural networks in high dimensions: SGD dynamics and scaling laws
abstract
We study the optimization and sample complexity of gradient-based training of a two-layer neural network with quadratic activation function in the high-dimensional regime, where the data is generated as $f_*(\boldsymbol{x}) \propto \sum_{j=1}^{r}\lambda_j \sigma\left(\langle \boldsymbol{\theta_j}, \boldsymbol{x}\rangle\right), \boldsymbol{x} \sim \mathcal{N}(0,\boldsymbol{I}_d)$, $\sigma$ is the 2nd Hermite polynomial, and $\lbrace \boldsymbol{\theta}_j \rbrace _{j=1}^{r} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ are orthonormal signal directions. We consider the extensive-width regime $r \asymp d^\beta$ for $\beta \in [0, 1)$, and assume a power-law decay on the (non-negative) second-layer coefficients $\lambda_j\asymp j^{-\alpha}$ for $\alpha \geq 0$. We present a sharp analysis of the SGD dynamics in the feature learning regime, for both the population limit and the finite-sample (online) discretization, and derive scaling laws for the prediction risk that highlight the power-law dependencies on the optimization time, sample size, and model width. Our analysis combines a precise characterization of the associated matrix Riccati differential equation with novel matrix monotonicity arguments to establish convergence guarantees for the infinite-dimensional effective dynamics.
Gérard Ben Arous, Murat A. Erdogdu, Nuri Mert Vural, Denny Wu
NeurIPS2
2025 A Geometric Analysis of PCA
abstract
What property of the data distribution determines the excess risk of principal component analysis? In this paper, we provide a precise answer to this question. We establish a central limit theorem for the error of the principal subspace estimated by PCA, and derive the asymptotic distribution of its excess risk under the reconstruction loss. We obtain a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess risk of PCA that recovers, in the large sample limit, our asymptotic characterization. Underlying our contributions is the following result: we prove that the negative block Rayleigh quotient, defined on the Grassmannian, is generalized self-concordant along geodesics emanating from its minimizer of maximum rotation less than $\pi/4$.
Ayoub El Hanchi, Murat A. Erdogdu, Chris J. Maddison
NeurIPS2
2025 Distributional Training Data Attribution: What do Influence Functions Sample?
abstract
Randomness is an unavoidable part of training deep learning models, yet something that traditional training data attribution algorithms fail to rigorously account for. They ignore the fact that, due to stochasticity in the initialisation and batching, training on the same dataset can yield different models. In this paper, we address this shortcoming through introducing _distributional_ training data attribution (d-TDA), the goal of which is to predict how the distribution of model outputs (over training runs) depends upon the dataset. Intriguingly, we find that _influence functions_ (IFs), a popular data attribution tool, are 'secretly distributional': they emerge from our framework as the limit to unrolled differentiation, without requiring restrictive convexity assumptions. This provides a new perspective on the effectiveness of IFs in deep learning. We demonstrate the practical utility of d-TDA in experiments, including improving data pruning for vision transformers and identifying influential examples with diffusion models.
Bruno Mlodozeniec, Isaac Reid, Sam Power, David Krueger 0001, Murat A. Erdogdu, Richard E. Turner, Roger B. Grosse
NeurIPS5
2025 When Do Transformers Outperform Feedforward and Recurrent Networks? A Statistical Perspective
abstract
Theoretical efforts to prove advantages of Transformers in comparison with classical architectures such as feedforward and recurrent neural networks have mostly focused on representational power. In this work, we take an alternative perspective and prove that even with infinite compute, feedforward and recurrent networks may suffer from larger sample complexity compared to Transformers, as the latter can adapt to a form of dynamic sparsity. Specifically, we consider a sequence-to-sequence data generating model on sequences of length $N$, where the output at each position only depends on $q \ll N$ relevant tokens, and the positions of these tokens are described in the input prompt. We prove that a single-layer Transformer can learn this model if and only if its number of attention heads is at least $q$, in which case it achieves a sample complexity almost independent of $N$, while recurrent networks require $N^{\Omega(1)}$ samples on the same problem. If we simplify this model, recurrent networks may achieve a complexity almost independent of $N$, while feedforward networks still require $N$ samples. Our proposed sparse retrieval model illustrates a natural hierarchy in sample complexity across these architectures.
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Clayton Sanford, Denny Wu, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS4
2025 From Information to Generative Exponent: Learning Rate Induces Phase Transitions in SGD
abstract
To understand feature learning dynamics in neural networks, recent theoretical works have focused on gradient-based learning of Gaussian single-index models, where the label is a nonlinear function of a latent one-dimensional projection of the input. While the sample complexity of online SGD is determined by the *information exponent* of the link function, recent works improved this by performing multiple gradient steps on the same sample with different learning rates — yielding a *non-correlational* update rule — and instead are limited by the (potentially much smaller) *generative exponent*. However, this picture is only valid when these learning rates are sufficiently large. In this paper, we characterize the relationship between learning rate(s) and sample complexity for a broad class of gradient-based algorithms that encapsulates both correlational and non-correlational updates. We demonstrate that, in certain cases, there is a phase transition from an "information exponent regime" with small learning rate to a "generative exponent regime" with large learning rate. Our framework covers prior analyses of one-pass SGD and SGD with batch reuse, while also introducing a new layer-wise training algorithm that leverages a two-timescales approach (via different learning rates for each layer) to go beyond correlational queries without reusing samples or modifying the loss from squared error. Our theoretical study demonstrates that the choice of learning rate is as important as the design of the algorithm in achieving statistical and computational efficiency.
Konstantinos C. Tsiolis, Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS3
2024 Minimax Linear Regression under the Quantile Risk
abstract
We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the \emph{exact} minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the lower bounds obtained by Lecue and Mendelson (2016) and Mendelson (2017) for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the procedure proposed by Lecue and Lerasle (2020), thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all $p$-th power error functions for $p \in (2, \infty)$. Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.
Ayoub El Hanchi, Chris J. Maddison, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT3
2024 Sampling from the Mean-Field Stationary Distribution
abstract
We study the complexity of sampling from the stationary distribution of a mean-field SDE, or equivalently, the complexity of minimizing a functional over the space of probability measures which includes an interaction term. Our main insight is to decouple the two key aspects of this problem: (1) approximation of the mean-field SDE via a finite-particle system, via uniform-in-time propagation of chaos, and (2) sampling from the finite-particle stationary distribution, via standard log-concave samplers. Our approach is conceptually simpler and its flexibility allows for incorporating the state-of-the-art for both algorithms and theory. This leads to improved guarantees in numerous settings, including better guarantees for optimizing certain two-layer neural networks in the mean-field regime.
Yunbum Kook, Matthew Shunshi Zhang, Sinho Chewi, Murat A. Erdogdu, Mufan (Bill) Li
COLT4
2024 Pruning is Optimal for Learning Sparse Features in High-Dimensions
abstract
While it is commonly observed in practice that pruning networks to a certain level of sparsity can improve the quality of the features, a theoretical explanation of this phenomenon remains elusive. In this work, we investigate this by demonstrating that a broad class of statistical models can be optimally learned using pruned neural networks trained with gradient descent, in high-dimensions. We consider learning both single-index and multi-index models of the form $y = \sigma^*(\boldsymbol{V}^{\top} \boldsymbol{x}) + \epsilon$, where $\sigma^*$ is a degree-$p$ polynomial, and $\boldsymbol{V} \in \mathbbm{R}^{d \times r}$ with $r \ll d$, is the matrix containing relevant model directions. We assume that $\boldsymbol{V}$ satisfies a certain $\ell_q$-sparsity condition for matrices and show that pruning neural networks proportional to the sparsity level of $\boldsymbol{V}$ improves their sample complexity compared to unpruned networks. Furthermore, we establish Correlational Statistical Query (CSQ) lower bounds in this setting, which take the sparsity level of $\boldsymbol{V}$ into account. We show that if the sparsity level of $\boldsymbol{V}$ exceeds a certain threshold, training pruned networks with a gradient descent algorithm achieves the sample complexity suggested by the CSQ lower bound. In the same scenario, however, our results imply that basis-independent methods such as models trained via standard gradient descent initialized with rotationally invariant random weights can provably achieve only suboptimal sample complexity.
Nuri Mert Vural, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT2
2024 A Separation in Heavy-Tailed Sampling: Gaussian vs. Stable Oracles for Proximal Samplers
abstract
We study the complexity of heavy-tailed sampling and present a separation result in terms of obtaining high-accuracy versus low-accuracy guarantees i.e., samplers that require only $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/\varepsilon))$ versus $\Omega(\text{poly}(1/\varepsilon))$ iterations to output a sample which is $\varepsilon$-close to the target in $\chi^2$-divergence. Our results are presented for proximal samplers that are based on Gaussian versus stable oracles. We show that proximal samplers based on the Gaussian oracle have a fundamental barrier in that they necessarily achieve only low-accuracy guarantees when sampling from a class of heavy-tailed targets. In contrast, proximal samplers based on the stable oracle exhibit high-accuracy guarantees, thereby overcoming the aforementioned limitation. We also prove lower bounds for samplers under the stable oracle and show that our upper bounds cannot be fundamentally improved.
Ye He 0003, Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0001, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS4
2024 On the Efficiency of ERM in Feature Learning
abstract
Given a collection of feature maps indexed by a set $\mathcal{T}$, we study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) on regression problems with square loss over the union of the linear classes induced by these feature maps. This setup aims at capturing the simplest instance of feature learning, where the model is expected to jointly learn from the data an appropriate feature map and a linear predictor. We start by studying the asymptotic quantiles of the excess risk of sequences of empirical risk minimizers. Remarkably, we show that when the set $\mathcal{T}$ is not too large and when there is a unique optimal feature map, these quantiles coincide, up to a factor of two, with those of the excess risk of the oracle procedure, which knows a priori this optimal feature map and deterministically outputs an empirical risk minimizer from the associated optimal linear class. We complement this asymptotic result with a non-asymptotic analysis that quantifies the decaying effect of the global complexity of the set $\mathcal{T}$ on the excess risk of ERM, and relates it to the size of the sublevel sets of the suboptimality of the feature maps. As an application of our results, we characterize the performance of the best subset selection procedure in sparse linear regression under general assumptions.
Ayoub El Hanchi, Chris J. Maddison, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS3
2024 Mean-Square Analysis of Discretized Itô Diffusions for Heavy-tailed Sampling
abstract
We analyze the complexity of sampling from a class of heavy-tailed distributions by discretizing a natural class of Itô diffusions associated with weighted Poincaré inequalities. Based on a mean-square analysis, we establish the iteration complexity for obtaining a sample whose distribution is $\epsilon$ close to the target distribution in the Wasserstein-2 metric. In this paper, our results take the mean-square analysis to its limits, i.e., we invariably only require that the target density has finite variance, the minimal requirement for a mean-square analysis. To obtain explicit estimates, we compute upper bounds on certain moments associated with heavy-tailed targets under various assumptions. We also provide similar iteration complexity results for the case where only function evaluations of the unnormalized target density are available by estimating the gradients using a Gaussian smoothing technique. We provide illustrative examples based on the multivariate $t$-distribution.
Ye He 0003, Tyler Farghly, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Murat A. Erdogdu
J. Mach. Learn. Res.4
2024 An Analysis of Transformed Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm for Heavy-Tailed Sampling
abstract
We analyze the oracle complexity of sampling from polynomially decaying heavy-tailed target densities based on running the Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm on certain transformed versions of the target density. The specific class of closed-form transformation maps that we construct are shown to be diffeomorphisms, and are particularly suited for developing efficient diffusion-based samplers. We characterize the precise class of heavy-tailed densities for which polynomial-order oracle complexities (in dimension and inverse target accuracy) could be obtained, and provide illustrative examples. We highlight the relationship between our assumptions and functional inequalities (super and weak Poincaré inequalities) based on non-local Dirichlet forms defined via fractional Laplacian operators, used to characterize the heavy-tailed equilibrium densities of certain stable-driven stochastic differential equations.
Ye He 0003, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Murat A. Erdogdu
IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory3
2023 Towards a Complete Analysis of Langevin Monte Carlo: Beyond Poincaré Inequality
abstract
Langevin diffusions are rapidly convergent under appropriate functional inequality assumptions. Hence, it is natural to expect that with additional smoothness conditions to handle the discretization errors, their discretizations like the Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) converge in a similar fashion. This research program was initiated by Vempala and Wibisono (2019), who established results under log-Sobolev inequalities. Chewi et al. (2022a) extended the results to handle the case of Poincaré inequalities. In this paper, we go beyond Poincaré inequalities, and push this research program to its limit. We do so by establishing upper and lower bounds for Langevin diffusions and LMC under weak Poincaré inequalities that are satisfied by a large class of densities including polynomially-decaying heavy-tailed densities (i.e., Cauchy-type). Our results explicitly quantify the effect of the initializer on the performance of the LMC algorithm. In particular, we show that as the tail goes from sub-Gaussian, to sub-exponential, and finally to Cauchy-like, the dependency on the initial error goes from being logarithmic, to polynomial, and then finally to being exponential. This three-step phase transition is in particular unavoidable as demonstrated by our lower bounds, clearly defining the boundaries of LMC.
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Tyler Farghly, Ye He 0003, Krishna Balasubramanian, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT5
2023 Improved Discretization Analysis for Underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo
abstract
Underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo (ULMC) is an algorithm used to sample from unnormalized densities by leveraging the momentum of a particle moving in a potential well. We provide a novel analysis of ULMC, motivated by two central questions: (1) Can we obtain improved sampling guarantees beyond strong log-concavity? (2) Can we achieve acceleration for sampling?For (1), prior results for ULMC only hold under a log-Sobolev inequality together with a restrictive Hessian smoothness condition. Here, we relax these assumptions by removing the Hessian smoothness condition and by considering distributions satisfying a Poincare inequality. Our analysis achieves the state of art dimension dependence, and is also flexible enough to handle weakly smooth potentials. As a byproduct, we also obtain the first KL divergence guarantees for ULMC without Hessian smoothness under strong log-concavity, which is based on a new result on the log-Sobolev constant along the underdamped Langevin diffusion.For (2), the recent breakthrough of Cao, Lu, and Wang (2020) established the first accelerated result for sampling in continuous time via PDE methods. Our discretization analysis translates their result into an algorithmic guarantee, which indeed enjoys better condition number dependence than prior works on ULMC, although we leave open the question of full acceleration in discrete time.Both (1) and (2) necessitate Renyi discretization bounds, which are more challenging than the typically used Wasserstein coupling arguments. We address this using a flexible discretization analysis based on Girsanov’s theorem that easily extends to more general settings.
Matthew Shunshi Zhang, Sinho Chewi, Mufan (Bill) Li, Krishna Balasubramanian, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT5
2023 Neural Networks Efficiently Learn Low-Dimensional Representations with SGD
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Manuela Girotti, Ioannis Mitliagkas, Murat A. Erdogdu
ICLR5
2023 Learning in the Presence of Low-dimensional Structure: A Spiked Random Matrix Perspective
abstract
We consider the learning of a single-index target function $f_*: \mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}$ under spiked covariance data: $$f_*(\boldsymbol{x}) = \textstyle\sigma_*(\frac{1}{\sqrt{1+\theta}}\langle\boldsymbol{x},\boldsymbol{\mu}\rangle), ~~ \boldsymbol{x}\overset{\small\mathrm{i.i.d.}}{\sim}\mathcal{N}(0,\boldsymbol{I_d} + \theta\boldsymbol{\mu}\boldsymbol{\mu}^\top), ~~ \theta\asymp d^{\beta} \text{ for } \beta\in[0,1), $$ where the link function $\sigma_*:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ is a degree-$p$ polynomial with information exponent $k$ (defined as the lowest degree in the Hermite expansion of $\sigma_*$), and it depends on the projection of input $\boldsymbol{x}$ onto the spike (signal) direction $\boldsymbol{\mu}\in\mathbb{R}^d$. In the proportional asymptotic limit where the number of training examples $n$ and the dimensionality $d$ jointly diverge: $n,d\to\infty, n/d\to\psi\in(0,\infty)$, we ask the following question: how large should the spike magnitude $\theta$ (i.e., the strength of the low-dimensional component) be, in order for $(i)$ kernel methods, $(ii)$ neural networks optimized by gradient descent, to learn $f_*$? We show that for kernel ridge regression, $\beta\ge 1-\frac{1}{p}$ is both sufficient and necessary. Whereas for two-layer neural networks trained with gradient descent, $\beta>1-\frac{1}{k}$ suffices. Our results demonstrate that both kernel methods and neural networks benefit from low-dimensional structures in the data. Further, since $k\le p$ by definition, neural networks can adapt to such structures more effectively.
Jimmy Ba, Murat A. Erdogdu, Taiji Suzuki, Denny Wu
NeurIPS2
2023 Optimal Excess Risk Bounds for Empirical Risk Minimization on p-Norm Linear Regression
abstract
We study the performance of empirical risk minimization on the $p$-norm linear regression problem for $p \in (1, \infty)$. We show that, in the realizable case, under no moment assumptions, and up to a distribution-dependent constant, $O(d)$ samples are enough to exactly recover the target. Otherwise, for $p \in [2, \infty)$, and under weak moment assumptions on the target and the covariates, we prove a high probability excess risk bound on the empirical risk minimizer whose leading term matches, up to a constant that depends only on $p$, the asymptotically exact rate. We extend this result to the case $p \in (1, 2)$ under mild assumptions that guarantee the existence of the Hessian of the risk at its minimizer.
Ayoub El Hanchi, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS2
2023 Gradient-Based Feature Learning under Structured Data
abstract
Recent works have demonstrated that the sample complexity of gradient-based learning of single index models, i.e. functions that depend on a 1-dimensional projection of the input data, is governed by their information exponent. However, these results are only concerned with isotropic data, while in practice the input often contains additional structure which can implicitly guide the algorithm. In this work, we investigate the effect of a spiked covariance structure and reveal several interesting phenomena. First, we show that in the anisotropic setting, the commonly used spherical gradient dynamics may fail to recover the true direction, even when the spike is perfectly aligned with the target direction. Next, we show that appropriate weight normalization that is reminiscent of batch normalization can alleviate this issue. Further, by exploiting the alignment between the (spiked) input covariance and the target, we obtain improved sample complexity compared to the isotropic case. In particular, under the spiked model with a suitably large spike, the sample complexity of gradient-based training can be made independent of the information exponent while also outperforming lower bounds for rotationally invariant kernel methods.
Alireza Mousavi-Hosseini, Denny Wu, Taiji Suzuki, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS4
2023 Distributional Model Equivalence for Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning
abstract
We consider the problem of learning models for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning. We theoretically demonstrate that proper value equivalence, a method of learning models which can be used to plan optimally in the risk-neutral setting, is not sufficient to plan optimally in the risk-sensitive setting. We leverage distributional reinforcement learning to introduce two new notions of model equivalence, one which is general and can be used to plan for any risk measure, but is intractable; and a practical variation which allows one to choose which risk measures they may plan optimally for. We demonstrate how our models can be used to augment any model-free risk-sensitive algorithm, and provide both tabular and large-scale experiments to demonstrate our method’s ability.
Tyler Kastner, Murat A. Erdogdu, Amir-massoud Farahmand
NeurIPS2
2022 Convergence and Optimality of Policy Gradient Methods in Weakly Smooth Settings
abstract
Policy gradient methods have been frequently applied to problems in control and reinforcement learning with great success, yet existing convergence analysis still relies on non-intuitive, impractical and often opaque conditions. In particular, existing rates are achieved in limited settings, under strict regularity conditions. In this work, we establish explicit convergence rates of policy gradient methods, extending the convergence regime to weakly smooth policy classes with L2 integrable gradient. We provide intuitive examples to illustrate the insight behind these new conditions. Notably, our analysis also shows that convergence rates are achievable for both the standard policy gradient and the natural policy gradient algorithms under these assumptions. Lastly we provide performance guarantees for the converged policies.
Matthew Shunshi Zhang, Murat A. Erdogdu, Animesh Garg
AAAI2
2022 Convergence of Langevin Monte Carlo in Chi-Squared and Rényi Divergence
abstract
We study sampling from a target distribution $\nu_* = e^{-f}$ using the unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm when the potential $f$ satisfies a strong dissipativity condition and it is first-order smooth with a Lipschitz gradient. We prove that, initialized with a Gaussian random vector that has sufficiently small variance, iterating the LMC algorithm for $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\lambda^2 d\epsilon^{-1})$ steps is sufficient to reach $\epsilon$-neighborhood of the target in both Chi-squared and Rényi divergence, where $\lambda$ is the logarithmic Sobolev constant of $\nu_*$. Our results do not require warm-start to deal with the exponential dimension dependency in Chi-squared divergence at initialization. In particular, for strongly convex and first-order smooth potentials, we show that the LMC algorithm achieves the rate estimate $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\epsilon^{-1})$ which improves the previously known rates in both of these metrics, under the same assumptions. Translating this rate to other metrics, our results also recover the state-of-the-art rate estimates in KL divergence, total variation and $2$-Wasserstein distance in the same setup. Finally, as we rely on the logarithmic Sobolev inequality, our framework covers a range of non-convex potentials that are first-order smooth and exhibit strong convexity outside of a compact region.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Rasa Hosseinzadeh, Matthew Shunshi Zhang
AISTATS1
2022 Towards a Theory of Non-Log-Concave Sampling: First-Order Stationarity Guarantees for Langevin Monte Carlo
abstract
For the task of sampling from a density $\pi \propto \exp(-V)$ on $\R^d$, where $V$ is possibly non-convex but $L$-gradient Lipschitz, we prove that averaged Langevin Monte Carlo outputs a sample with $\varepsilon$-relative Fisher information after $O(L^2 d^2/\varepsilon^2)$ iterations. This is the sampling analogue of complexity bounds for finding an $\varepsilon$-approximate first-order stationary points in non-convex optimization and therefore constitutes a first step towards the general theory of non-log-concave sampling. We discuss numerous extensions and applications of our result; in particular, it yields a new state-of-the-art guarantee for sampling from distributions which satisfy a Poincaré inequality.
Krishna Balasubramanian, Sinho Chewi, Murat A. Erdogdu, Adil Salim, Matthew Shunshi Zhang
COLT3
2022 Analysis of Langevin Monte Carlo from Poincare to Log-Sobolev
abstract
Classically, the continuous-time Langevin diffusion converges exponentially fast to its stationary distribution $\pi$ under the sole assumption that $\pi$ satisfies a Poincaré inequality. Using this fact to provide guarantees for the discrete-time Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm, however, is considerably more challenging due to the need for working with chi-squared or Rényi divergences, and prior works have largely focused on strongly log-concave targets. In this work, we provide the first convergence guarantees for LMC assuming that $\pi$ satisfies either a Latał{}a–Oleszkiewicz or modified log-Sobolev inequality, which interpolates between the Poincaré and log-Sobolev settings. Unlike prior works, our results allow for weak smoothness and do not require convexity or dissipativity conditions.
Sinho Chewi, Murat A. Erdogdu, Mufan (Bill) Li, Ruoqi Shen, Matthew Shunshi Zhang
COLT2
2022 Mirror Descent Strikes Again: Optimal Stochastic Convex Optimization under Infinite Noise Variance
abstract
We study stochastic convex optimization under infinite noise variance. Specifically, when the stochastic gradient is unbiased and has uniformly bounded $(1+\kappa)$-th moment, for some $\kappa \in (0,1]$, we quantify the convergence rate of the Stochastic Mirror Descent algorithm with a particular class of uniformly convex mirror maps, in terms of the number of iterations, dimensionality and related geometric parameters of the optimization problem. Interestingly this algorithm does not require any explicit gradient clipping or normalization, which have been extensively used in several recent empirical and theoretical works. We complement our convergence results with information-theoretic lower bounds showing that no other algorithm using only stochastic first-order oracles can achieve improved rates. Our results have several interesting consequences for devising online/streaming stochastic approximation algorithms for problems arising in robust statistics and machine learning.
Nuri Mert Vural, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Stanislav Volgushev, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT5
2022 Understanding the Variance Collapse of SVGD in High Dimensions
Jimmy Ba, Murat A. Erdogdu, Marzyeh Ghassemi, Shengyang Sun, Taiji Suzuki, Denny Wu, Tianzong Zhang
ICLR2
2022 High-dimensional Asymptotics of Feature Learning: How One Gradient Step Improves the Representation
abstract
We study the first gradient descent step on the first-layer parameters $\boldsymbol{W}$ in a two-layer neural network: $f(\boldsymbol{x}) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}\boldsymbol{a}^\top\sigma(\boldsymbol{W}^\top\boldsymbol{x})$, where $\boldsymbol{W}\in\mathbb{R}^{d\times N}, \boldsymbol{a}\in\mathbb{R}^{N}$ are randomly initialized, and the training objective is the empirical MSE loss: $\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n (f(\boldsymbol{x}_i)-y_i)^2$. In the proportional asymptotic limit where $n,d,N\to\infty$ at the same rate, and an idealized student-teacher setting where the teacher $f^*$ is a single-index model, we compute the prediction risk of ridge regression on the conjugate kernel after one gradient step on $\boldsymbol{W}$ with learning rate $\eta$. We consider two scalings of the first step learning rate $\eta$. For small $\eta$, we establish a Gaussian equivalence property for the trained feature map, and prove that the learned kernel improves upon the initial random features model, but cannot defeat the best linear model on the input. Whereas for sufficiently large $\eta$, we prove that for certain $f^*$, the same ridge estimator on trained features can go beyond this ``linear regime'' and outperform a wide range of (fixed) kernels. Our results demonstrate that even one gradient step can lead to a considerable advantage over random features, and highlight the role of learning rate scaling in the initial phase of training.
Jimmy Ba, Murat A. Erdogdu, Taiji Suzuki, Denny Wu, Greg Yang
NeurIPS2
2022 Generalization Bounds for Stochastic Gradient Descent via Localized $\varepsilon$-Covers
abstract
In this paper, we propose a new covering technique localized for the trajectories of SGD. This localization provides an algorithm-specific complexity measured by the covering number, which can have dimension-independent cardinality in contrast to standard uniform covering arguments that result in exponential dimension dependency. Based on this localized construction, we show that if the objective function is a finite perturbation of a piecewise strongly convex and smooth function with $P$ pieces, i.e., non-convex and non-smooth in general, the generalization error can be upper bounded by $O(\sqrt{(\log n\log(nP))/n})$, where $n$ is the number of data samples. In particular, this rate is independent of dimension and does not require early stopping and decaying step size. Finally, we employ these results in various contexts and derive generalization bounds for multi-index linear models, multi-class support vector machines, and $K$-means clustering for both hard and soft label setups, improving the previously known state-of-the-art rates.
Umut Simsekli, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS3
2021 On the Convergence of Langevin Monte Carlo: The Interplay between Tail Growth and Smoothness
abstract
We study sampling from a target distribution $\nu_* = e^{-f}$ using the unadjusted Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithm. For any potential function $f$ whose tails behave like $\|x\|^\alpha$ for ${\alpha \in [1,2]}$, and has $\beta$-Hölder continuous gradient, we prove that $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}} \Big(d^{\frac{1}{\beta}+\frac{1+\beta}{\beta}(\frac{2}{\alpha}-{1}_{\{\alpha \neq 1\}})} \epsilon^{-\frac{1}{\beta}}\Big)$ steps are sufficient to reach the $\epsilon$-neighborhood of a $d$-dimensional target distribution $\nu_*$ in KL-divergence. This bound, in terms of $\epsilon$ dependency, is not directly influenced by the tail growth rate $\alpha$ of the potential function as long as its growth is at least linear, and it only relies on the order of smoothness $\beta$. One notable consequence of this result is that for potentials with Lipschitz gradient, i.e. $\beta=1$, the above rate recovers the best known rate $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}} (d\epsilon^{-1})$ which was established for strongly convex potentials in terms of $\epsilon$ dependency, but we show that the same rate is achievable for a wider class of potentials that are degenerately convex at infinity. The growth rate $\alpha$ affects the rate estimate in high dimensions where $d$ is large; furthermore, it recovers the best-known dimension dependency when the tail growth of the potential is quadratic, i.e. $\alpha = 2$, in the current setup.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Rasa Hosseinzadeh
COLT1
2021 Heavy Tails in SGD and Compressibility of Overparametrized Neural Networks
abstract
Neural network compression techniques have become increasingly popular as they can drastically reduce the storage and computation requirements for very large networks. Recent empirical studies have illustrated that even simple pruning strategies can be surprisingly effective, and several theoretical studies have shown that compressible networks (in specific senses) should achieve a low generalization error. Yet, a theoretical characterization of the underlying causes that make the networks amenable to such simple compression schemes is still missing. In this study, focusing our attention on stochastic gradient descent (SGD), our main contribution is to link compressibility to two recently established properties of SGD: (i) as the network size goes to infinity, the system can converge to a mean-field limit, where the network weights behave independently [DBDFŞ20], (ii) for a large step-size/batch-size ratio, the SGD iterates can converge to a heavy-tailed stationary distribution [HM20, GŞZ21]. Assuming that both of these phenomena occur simultaneously, we prove that the networks are guaranteed to be '$\ell_p$-compressible', and the compression errors of different pruning techniques (magnitude, singular value, or node pruning) become arbitrarily small as the network size increases. We further prove generalization bounds adapted to our theoretical framework, which are consistent with the observation that the generalization error will be lower for more compressible networks. Our theory and numerical study on various neural networks show that large step-size/batch-size ratios introduce heavy tails, which, in combination with overparametrization, result in compressibility.
Melih Barsbey, Milad Sefidgaran, Murat A. Erdogdu, Gaël Richard, Umut Simsekli
NeurIPS3
2021 Fractal Structure and Generalization Properties of Stochastic Optimization Algorithms
abstract
Understanding generalization in deep learning has been one of the major challenges in statistical learning theory over the last decade. While recent work has illustrated that the dataset and the training algorithm must be taken into account in order to obtain meaningful generalization bounds, it is still theoretically not clear which properties of the data and the algorithm determine the generalization performance. In this study, we approach this problem from a dynamical systems theory perspective and represent stochastic optimization algorithms as \emph{random iterated function systems} (IFS). Well studied in the dynamical systems literature, under mild assumptions, such IFSs can be shown to be ergodic with an invariant measure that is often supported on sets with a \emph{fractal structure}. As our main contribution, we prove that the generalization error of a stochastic optimization algorithm can be bounded based on the `complexity' of the fractal structure that underlies its invariant measure. Then, by leveraging results from dynamical systems theory, we show that the generalization error can be explicitly linked to the choice of the algorithm (e.g., stochastic gradient descent -- SGD), algorithm hyperparameters (e.g., step-size, batch-size), and the geometry of the problem (e.g., Hessian of the loss). We further specialize our results to specific problems (e.g., linear/logistic regression, one hidden-layered neural networks) and algorithms (e.g., SGD and preconditioned variants), and obtain analytical estimates for our bound. For modern neural networks, we develop an efficient algorithm to compute the developed bound and support our theory with various experiments on neural networks.
Alexander Camuto, George Deligiannidis, Murat A. Erdogdu, Mert Gürbüzbalaban, Umut Simsekli, Lingjiong Zhu
NeurIPS3
2021 On Empirical Risk Minimization with Dependent and Heavy-Tailed Data
abstract
In this work, we establish risk bounds for Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works~\cite{pmlr-v35-mendelson14, mendelson2018learning} on the analysis of ERM with heavy-tailed but independent and identically distributed observations, to the strictly stationary exponentially $\beta$-mixing case. We allow for the interaction between the noise and inputs to be even polynomially heavy-tailed, which covers a significantly large class of heavy-tailed models beyond what is analyzed in the learning theory literature. We illustrate our theoretical results by obtaining rates of convergence for high-dimensional linear regression with dependent and heavy-tailed data.
Abhishek Roy 0005, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS3
2021 Manipulating SGD with Data Ordering Attacks
abstract
Machine learning is vulnerable to a wide variety of attacks. It is now well understood that by changing the underlying data distribution, an adversary can poison the model trained with it or introduce backdoors. In this paper we present a novel class of training-time attacks that require no changes to the underlying dataset or model architecture, but instead only change the order in which data are supplied to the model. In particular, we find that the attacker can either prevent the model from learning, or poison it to learn behaviours specified by the attacker. Furthermore, we find that even a single adversarially-ordered epoch can be enough to slow down model learning, or even to reset all of the learning progress. Indeed, the attacks presented here are not specific to the model or dataset, but rather target the stochastic nature of modern learning procedures. We extensively evaluate our attacks on computer vision and natural language benchmarks to find that the adversary can disrupt model training and even introduce backdoors.
Ilia Shumailov, Zakhar Shumaylov, Dmitry Kazhdan, Nicolas Papernot, Murat A. Erdogdu, Ross J. Anderson
NeurIPS6
2021 Convergence Rates of Stochastic Gradient Descent under Infinite Noise Variance
abstract
Recent studies have provided both empirical and theoretical evidence illustrating that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in various scenarios. Such heavy tails potentially result in iterates with diverging variance, which hinders the use of conventional convergence analysis techniques that rely on the existence of the second-order moments. In this paper, we provide convergence guarantees for SGD under a state-dependent and heavy-tailed noise with a potentially infinite variance, for a class of strongly convex objectives. In the case where the $p$-th moment of the noise exists for some $p\in [1,2)$, we first identify a condition on the Hessian, coined `$p$-positive (semi-)definiteness', that leads to an interesting interpolation between the positive semi-definite cone ($p=2$) and the cone of diagonally dominant matrices with non-negative diagonal entries ($p=1$). Under this condition, we provide a convergence rate for the distance to the global optimum in $L^p$. Furthermore, we provide a generalized central limit theorem, which shows that the properly scaled Polyak-Ruppert averaging converges weakly to a multivariate $\alpha$-stable random vector.Our results indicate that even under heavy-tailed noise with infinite variance, SGD can converge to the global optimum without necessitating any modification neither to the loss function nor to the algorithm itself, as typically required in robust statistics.We demonstrate the implications of our resultsover misspecified models, in the presence of heavy-tailed data.
Mert Gürbüzbalaban, Lingjiong Zhu, Umut Simsekli, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS5
2021 An Analysis of Constant Step Size SGD in the Non-convex Regime: Asymptotic Normality and Bias
abstract
Structured non-convex learning problems, for which critical points have favorable statistical properties, arise frequently in statistical machine learning. Algorithmic convergence and statistical estimation rates are well-understood for such problems. However, quantifying the uncertainty associated with the underlying training algorithm is not well-studied in the non-convex setting. In order to address this shortcoming, in this work, we establish an asymptotic normality result for the constant step size stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm---a widely used algorithm in practice. Specifically, based on the relationship between SGD and Markov Chains [DDB19], we show that the average of SGD iterates is asymptotically normally distributed around the expected value of their unique invariant distribution, as long as the non-convex and non-smooth objective function satisfies a dissipativity property. We also characterize the bias between this expected value and the critical points of the objective function under various local regularity conditions. Together, the above two results could be leveraged to construct confidence intervals for non-convex problems that are trained using the SGD algorithm.
Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Stanislav Volgushev, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS4
2020 Generalization of Two-layer Neural Networks: An Asymptotic Viewpoint
Jimmy Ba, Murat A. Erdogdu, Taiji Suzuki, Denny Wu, Tianzong Zhang
ICLR2
2020 On the Ergodicity, Bias and Asymptotic Normality of Randomized Midpoint Sampling Method
abstract
The randomized midpoint method, proposed by (Shen and Lee, 2019), has emerged as an optimal discretization procedure for simulating the continuous time underdamped Langevin diffusion. In this paper, we analyze several probabilistic properties of the randomized midpoint discretization method, considering both overdamped and underdamped Langevin dynamics. We first characterize the stationary distribution of the discrete chain obtained with constant step-size discretization and show that it is biased away from the target distribution. Notably, the step-size needs to go to zero to obtain asymptotic unbiasedness. Next, we establish the asymptotic normality of numerical integration using the randomized midpoint method and highlight the relative advantages and disadvantages over other discretizations. Our results collectively provide several insights into the behavior of the randomized midpoint discretization method, including obtaining confidence intervals for numerical integrations.
Ye He 0003, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS3
2020 Hausdorff Dimension, Heavy Tails, and Generalization in Neural Networks
abstract
Despite its success in a wide range of applications, characterizing the generalization properties of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in non-convex deep learning problems is still an important challenge. While modeling the trajectories of SGD via stochastic differential equations (SDE) under heavy-tailed gradient noise has recently shed light over several peculiar characteristics of SGD, a rigorous treatment of the generalization properties of such SDEs in a learning theoretical framework is still missing. Aiming to bridge this gap, in this paper, we prove generalization bounds for SGD under the assumption that its trajectories can be well-approximated by a \emph{Feller process}, which defines a rich class of Markov processes that include several recent SDE representations (both Brownian or heavy-tailed) as its special case. We show that the generalization error can be controlled by the \emph{Hausdorff dimension} of the trajectories, which is intimately linked to the tail behavior of the driving process. Our results imply that heavier-tailed processes should achieve better generalization; hence, the tail-index of the process can be used as a notion of ``capacity metric''. We support our theory with experiments on deep neural networks illustrating that the proposed capacity metric accurately estimates the generalization error, and it does not necessarily grow with the number of parameters unlike the existing capacity metrics in the literature.
Umut Simsekli, Ozan Sener, George Deligiannidis, Murat A. Erdogdu
NeurIPS4
2019 Normal Approximation for Stochastic Gradient Descent via Non-Asymptotic Rates of Martingale CLT
abstract
We provide non-asymptotic convergence rates of the Polyak-Ruppert averaged stochastic gradient descent (SGD) to a normal random vector for a class of twice-differentiable test functions. A crucial intermediate step is proving a non-asymptotic martingale central limit theorem (CLT), i.e., establishing the rates of convergence of a multivariate martingale difference sequence to a normal random vector, which might be of independent interest. We obtain the explicit rates for the multivariate martingale CLT using a combination of Stein?s method and Lindeberg?s argument, which is then used in conjunction with a non-asymptotic analysis of averaged SGD proposed in [PJ92]. Our results have potentially interesting consequences for computing confidence intervals for parameter estimation with SGD and constructing hypothesis tests with SGD that are valid in a non-asymptotic sense
Andreas Anastasiou, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian 0002, Murat A. Erdogdu
COLT3
2019 Scalable Approximations for Generalized Linear Problems
abstract
In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk which is in turn minimized by an iterative algorithm. However, in the large-scale setting, empirical risk minimization may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an efficient algorithm to approximate the population risk minimizer in generalized linear problems such as binary classification with surrogate losses and generalized linear regression models. We focus on large-scale problems where the iterative minimization of the empirical risk is computationally intractable, i.e., the number of observations $n$ is much larger than the dimension of the parameter $p$ ($n \gg p \gg 1$). We show that under random sub-Gaussian design, the true minimizer of the population risk is approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the empirical risk minimizer through iterations that attain up to a quadratic convergence rate, and that are computationally cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of $\mathcal{O}(p)$. We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on well-known classification and regression problems, through extensive numerical studies on large-scale datasets, and show that it achieves the highest performance compared to several other widely used optimization algorithms.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Mohsen Bayati, Lee H. Dicker
J. Mach. Learn. Res.1
2018 Global Non-convex Optimization with Discretized Diffusions
abstract
An Euler discretization of the Langevin diffusion is known to converge to the global minimizers of certain convex and non-convex optimization problems. We show that this property holds for any suitably smooth diffusion and that different diffusions are suitable for optimizing different classes of convex and non-convex functions. This allows us to design diffusions suitable for globally optimizing convex and non-convex functions not covered by the existing Langevin theory. Our non-asymptotic analysis delivers computable optimization and integration error bounds based on easily accessed properties of the objective and chosen diffusion. Central to our approach are new explicit Stein factor bounds on the solutions of Poisson equations. We complement these results with improved optimization guarantees for targets other than the standard Gibbs measure.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Lester Mackey, Ohad Shamir
NeurIPS1
2017 Inference in Graphical Models via Semidefinite Programming Hierarchies
abstract
Maximum A posteriori Probability (MAP) inference in graphical models amounts to solving a graph-structured combinatorial optimization problem. Popular inference algorithms such as belief propagation (BP) and generalized belief propagation (GBP) are intimately related to linear programming (LP) relaxation within the Sherali-Adams hierarchy. Despite the popularity of these algorithms, it is well understood that the Sum-of-Squares (SOS) hierarchy based on semidefinite programming (SDP) can provide superior guarantees. Unfortunately, SOS relaxations for a graph with $n$ vertices require solving an SDP with $n^{\Theta(d)}$ variables where $d$ is the degree in the hierarchy. In practice, for $d\ge 4$, this approach does not scale beyond a few tens of variables. In this paper, we propose binary SDP relaxations for MAP inference using the SOS hierarchy with two innovations focused on computational efficiency. Firstly, in analogy to BP and its variants, we only introduce decision variables corresponding to contiguous regions in the graphical model. Secondly, we solve the resulting SDP using a non-convex Burer-Monteiro style method, and develop a sequential rounding procedure. We demonstrate that the resulting algorithm can solve problems with tens of thousands of variables within minutes, and outperforms BP and GBP on practical problems such as image denoising and Ising spin glasses. Finally, for specific graph types, we establish a sufficient condition for the tightness of the proposed partial SOS relaxation.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Yash Deshpande, Andrea Montanari
NIPS1
2017 Robust Estimation of Neural Signals in Calcium Imaging
abstract
Calcium imaging is a prominent technology in neuroscience research which allows for simultaneous recording of large numbers of neurons in awake animals. Automated extraction of neurons and their temporal activity from imaging datasets is an important step in the path to producing neuroscience results. However, nearly all imaging datasets contain gross contaminating sources which could originate from the technology used, or the underlying biological tissue. Although past work has considered the effects of contamination under limited circumstances, there has not been a general framework treating contamination and its effects on the statistical estimation of calcium signals. In this work, we proceed in a new direction and propose to extract cells and their activity using robust statistical estimation. Using the theory of M-estimation, we derive a minimax optimal robust loss, and also find a simple and practical optimization routine for this loss with provably fast convergence. We use our proposed robust loss in a matrix factorization framework to extract the neurons and their temporal activity in calcium imaging datasets. We demonstrate the superiority of our robust estimation approach over existing methods on both simulated and real datasets.
Hakan Inan, Murat A. Erdogdu, Mark J. Schnitzer
NIPS2
2016 Maximum Likelihood for Variance Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Models
abstract
We study maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the residual variance, the signal-to-noise ratio, and other variance parameters in high-dimensional linear models. These parameters are essential in many statistical applications involving regression diagnostics, inference, tuning parameter selection for high-dimensional regression, and other applications, including genetics. The estimators that we study are not new, and have been widely used for variance component estimation in linear random-effects models. However, our analysis is new and it implies that the MLEs, which were devised for random-effects models, may also perform very well in high-dimensional linear models with fixed-effects, which are more commonly studied in some areas of high-dimensional statistics. The MLEs are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal in fixed-effects models with random design, in asymptotic settings where the number of predictors ($p$) is proportional to the number of observations ($n$). Moreover, the estimators’ asymptotic variance can be given explicitly in terms moments of the Marcenko-Pastur distribution. A variety of analytical and empirical results show that the MLEs outperform other, previously proposed estimators for variance parameters in high-dimensional linear models with fixed-effects. More broadly, the results in this paper illustrate a strategy for drawing connections between fixed- and random-effects models in high dimensions, which may be useful in other applications.
Lee H. Dicker, Murat A. Erdogdu
AISTATS2
2016 Scaled Least Squares Estimator for GLMs in Large-Scale Problems
abstract
We study the problem of efficiently estimating the coefficients of generalized linear models (GLMs) in the large-scale setting where the number of observations $n$ is much larger than the number of predictors $p$, i.e. $n\gg p \gg 1$. We show that in GLMs with random (not necessarily Gaussian) design, the GLM coefficients are approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficients. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through iterations that attain up to a cubic convergence rate, and that are cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of $\mathcal{O}(p)$. We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions. % Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm through extensive numerical studies on large-scale real and synthetic datasets, and show that it achieves the highest performance compared to several other widely used optimization algorithms.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Lee H. Dicker, Mohsen Bayati
NIPS1
2016 Newton-Stein Method: An Optimization Method for GLMs via Stein's Lemma
abstract
We consider the problem of efficiently computing the maximum likelihood estimator in Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) when the number of observations is much larger than the number of coefficients ($n \gg p \gg 1$). In this regime, optimization algorithms can immensely benefit from approximate second order information. We propose an alternative way of constructing the curvature information by formulating it as an estimation problem and applying a Stein-type lemma, which allows further improvements through sub-sampling and eigenvalue thresholding. Our algorithm enjoys fast convergence rates, resembling that of second order methods, with modest per-iteration cost. We provide its convergence analysis for the general case where the rows of the design matrix are samples from a sub-Gaussian distribution. We show that the convergence has two phases, a quadratic phase followed by a linear phase. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that our algorithm achieves the highest performance compared to various optimization algorithms on several data sets.
Murat A. Erdogdu
J. Mach. Learn. Res.1
2015 Privacy-utility trade-off under continual observation
abstract
In the online setting, a user continuously releases a time-series that is correlated with his private data, to a service provider to derive some utility. Due to correlations, the continual observation of the time-series puts the user at risk of inference attacks against his private data. To protect the user's privacy, the time-series is randomized prior to its release according to a probabilistic privacy mapping. This mapping should be designed in a way that balances privacy and utility requirements over time. First, we formalize the framework for the design of utility-aware privacy mappings for time-series, under both online and batch models. We introduce two threat models, for which we respectively show that under the log-loss cost function, the information leakage can be modeled by the mutual or directed information between the randomized time-series and the private data. Second, we prove that the design of the privacy mapping can be cast as a convex optimization. We provide a sequential online scheme that allows to design privacy mappings at scale, that accounts for privacy risk from the history of released data and future releases to come. Third, we prove the equivalence of the optimal mappings under the batch and the online models, in the case of a Hidden Markov Model. Evaluations on real-world time-series data show that smart-meter data can be randomized to prevent disaggregation of per-device energy consumption, while maintaining the utility of the randomized series.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Nadia Fawaz
ISIT1
2015 SEISMIC: A Self-Exciting Point Process Model for Predicting Tweet Popularity
abstract
Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future?
Qingyuan Zhao, Murat A. Erdogdu, Hera Y. He, Anand Rajaraman, Jure Leskovec
KDD2
2015 Newton-Stein Method: A Second Order Method for GLMs via Stein's Lemma
abstract
We consider the problem of efficiently computing the maximum likelihood estimator in Generalized Linear Models (GLMs)when the number of observations is much larger than the number of coefficients (n > > p > > 1). In this regime, optimization algorithms can immensely benefit fromapproximate second order information.We propose an alternative way of constructing the curvature information by formulatingit as an estimation problem and applying a Stein-type lemma, which allows further improvements through sub-sampling andeigenvalue thresholding.Our algorithm enjoys fast convergence rates, resembling that of second order methods, with modest per-iteration cost. We provide its convergence analysis for the case where the rows of the design matrix are i.i.d. samples with bounded support.We show that the convergence has two phases, aquadratic phase followed by a linear phase. Finally,we empirically demonstrate that our algorithm achieves the highest performancecompared to various algorithms on several datasets.
Murat A. Erdogdu
NIPS1
2015 Convergence rates of sub-sampled Newton methods
abstract
We consider the problem of minimizing a sum of $n$ functions via projected iterations onto a convex parameter set $\C \subset \reals^p$, where $n\gg p\gg 1$. In this regime, algorithms which utilize sub-sampling techniques are known to be effective.In this paper, we use sub-sampling techniques together with low-rank approximation to design a new randomized batch algorithm which possesses comparable convergence rate to Newton's method, yet has much smaller per-iteration cost. The proposed algorithm is robust in terms of starting point and step size, and enjoys a composite convergence rate, namely, quadratic convergence at start and linear convergence when the iterate is close to the minimizer. We develop its theoretical analysis which also allows us to select near-optimal algorithm parameters. Our theoretical results can be used to obtain convergence rates of previously proposed sub-sampling based algorithms as well. We demonstrate how our results apply to well-known machine learning problems.Lastly, we evaluate the performance of our algorithm on several datasets under various scenarios.
Murat A. Erdogdu, Andrea Montanari
NIPS1
2013 Estimating LASSO Risk and Noise Level
abstract
We study the fundamental problems of variance and risk estimation in high dimensional statistical modeling. In particular, we consider the problem of learning a coefficient vector $\theta_0\in R^p$ from noisy linear observation $y=X\theta_0+w\in R^n$ and the popular estimation procedure of solving an $\ell_1$-penalized least squares objective known as the LASSO or Basis Pursuit DeNoising (BPDN). In this context, we develop new estimators for the $\ell_2$ estimation risk $\|\hat{\theta}-\theta_0\|_2$ and the variance of the noise. These can be used to select the regularization parameter optimally. Our approach combines Stein unbiased risk estimate (Stein'81) and recent results of (Bayati and Montanari'11-12) on the analysis of approximate message passing and risk of LASSO. We establish high-dimensional consistency of our estimators for sequences of matrices $X$ of increasing dimensions, with independent Gaussian entries. We establish validity for a broader class of Gaussian designs, conditional on the validity of a certain conjecture from statistical physics. Our approach is the first that provides an asymptotically consistent risk estimator. In addition, we demonstrate through simulation that our variance estimation outperforms several existing methods in the literature.
Mohsen Bayati, Murat A. Erdogdu, Andrea Montanari
NIPS2