During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

While many solutions for privacy-preserving convex empirical risk minimization (ERM) have been developed, privacy-preserving nonconvex ERM remains a challenge. We study nonconvex ERM, which takes the form of minimizing a finite-sum of nonconvex loss functions over a training set. We propose a new differentially private stochastic gradient descent algorithm for nonconvex ERM that achieves strong privacy guarantees efficiently, and provide a tight analysis of its privacy and utility guarantees, as well as its gradient complexity. Our algorithm reduces gradient complexity while matching the best-known utility guarantee. Our experiments on benchmark nonconvex ERM problems demonstrate superior performance in terms of both training cost and utility gains compared with previous differentially private methods using the same privacy budgets.

Lingxiao Wang, Kevin Huang, Tengyu Ma, Quanquan Gu, Jing Huang. Proceedings of the 2021 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies. 2021.

Abstract We study membership inference in settings where assumptions commonly used in previous research are relaxed. First, we consider cases where only a small fraction of the candidate pool targeted by the adversary are members and develop a PPV-based metric suitable for this setting. This skewed prior setting is more realistic than the balanced prior setting typically considered. Second, we consider adversaries that select inference thresholds according to their attack goals, such as identifying as many members as possible with a given false positive tolerance. We develop a threshold selection designed for achieving particular attack goals. Since previous inference attacks fail in imbalanced prior settings, we develop new inference attacks based on the intuition that inputs corresponding to training set members will be near a local minimum in the loss function. An attack that combines this with thresholds on the per-instance loss can achieve high PPV even in settings where other attacks are ineffective.

We study the problem of estimating high dimensional models with underlying sparse structures while preserving the privacy of each training example. We develop a differentially private high-dimensional sparse learning framework using the idea of knowledge transfer. More specifically, we propose to distill the knowledge from a “teacher” estimator trained on a private dataset, by creating a new dataset from auxiliary features, and then train a differentially private “student” estimator using this new dataset. In addition, we establish the linear convergence rate as well as the utility guarantee for our proposed method. For sparse linear regression and sparse logistic regression, our method achieves improved utility guarantees compared with the best known results (Kifer, Smith and Thakurta 2012; Wang and Gu 2019). We further demonstrate the superiority of our framework through both synthetic and real-world data experiments.

Recent effort to test deep learning systems has produced an intuitive and compelling test criterion called neuron coverage (NC), which resembles the notion of traditional code coverage. NC measures the proportion of neurons activated in a neural network and it is implicitly assumed that increasing NC improves the quality of a test suite. In an attempt to automatically generate a test suite that increases NC, we design a novel diversity promoting regularizer that can be plugged into existing adversarial attack algorithms. We then assess whether such attempts to increase NC could generate a test suite that (1) detects adversarial attacks successfully, (2) produces natural inputs, and (3) is unbiased to particular class predictions. Contrary to expectation, our extensive evaluation finds that increasing NC actually makes it harder to generate an effective test suite: higher neuron coverage leads to fewer defects detected, less natural inputs, and more biased prediction preferences. Our results invoke skepticism that increasing neuron coverage may not be a meaningful objective for generating tests for deep neural networks and call for a new test generation technique that considers defect detection, naturalness, and output impartiality in tandem.

We study the problem of learning one-hidden-layer neural networks with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, where the inputs are sampled from standard Gaussian distribution and the outputs are generated from a noisy teacher network. We analyze the performance of gradient descent for training such kind of neural networks based on empirical risk minimization, and provide algorithm-dependent guarantees. In particular, we prove that tensor initialization followed by gradient descent can converge to the ground-truth parameters at a linear rate up to some statistical error. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work characterizing the recovery guarantee for practical learning of one-hidden-layer ReLU networks with multiple neurons. Numerical experiments verify our theoretical findings.

We consider the differentially private sparse learning problem, where the goal is to estimate the underlying sparse parameter vector of a statistical model in the high-dimensional regime while preserving the privacy of each training example. We propose a generic differentially private iterative gradient hard threshoding algorithm with a linear convergence rate and strong utility guarantee. We demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm through two specific applications: sparse linear regression and sparse logistic regression. Specifically, for sparse linear regression, our algorithm can achieve the best known utility guarantee without any extra support selection procedure used in previous work \cite{kifer2012private}. For sparse logistic regression, our algorithm can obtain the utility guarantee with a logarithmic dependence on the problem dimension. Experiments on both synthetic data and real world datasets verify the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

We propose a unified framework to solve general low-rank plus sparse matrix recovery problems based on matrix factorization, which covers a broad family of objective functions satisfying the restricted strong convexity and smoothness conditions. Based on projected gradient descent and the double thresholding operator, our proposed generic algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the unknown low-rank and sparse matrices at a locally linear rate, while matching the best-known robustness guarantee (i.e., tolerance for sparsity). At the core of our theory is a novel structural Lipschitz gradient condition for low-rank plus sparse matrices, which is essential for proving the linear convergence rate of our algorithm, and we believe is of independent interest to prove fast rates for general superposition-structured models. We illustrate the application of our framework through two concrete examples: robust matrix sensing and robust PCA. Empirical experiments corroborate our theory.

We propose a nonconvex estimator for the covariate adjusted precision matrix estimation problem in the high dimensional regime, under sparsity constraints. To solve this estimator, we propose an alternating gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding. Compared with existing methods along this line of research, which lack theoretical guarantees in optimization error and/or statistical error, the proposed algorithm not only is computationally much more efficient with a linear rate of convergence, but also attains the optimal statistical rate up to a logarithmic factor. Thorough experiments on both synthetic and real data support our theory.

We propose a primal-dual based framework for analyzing the global optimality of nonconvex low-rank matrix recovery. Our analysis are based on the restricted strongly convex and smooth conditions, which can be verified for a broad family of loss functions. In addition, our analytic framework can directly handle the widely-used incoherence constraints through the lens of duality. We illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework to matrix completion and one-bit matrix completion, and prove that all these problems have no spurious local minima. Our results not only improve the sample complexity required for characterizing the global optimality of matrix completion, but also resolve an open problem in Ge et al. (2017) regarding one-bit matrix completion. Numerical experiments show that primal-dual based algorithm can successfully recover the global optimum for various low-rank problems.

Distributed learning allows a group of independent data owners to collaboratively learn a model over their data sets without exposing their private data. We present a distributed learning approach that combines differential privacy with secure multi-party computation. We explore two popular methods of differential privacy, output perturbation and gradient perturbation, and advance the state-of-the-art for both methods in the distributed learning setting. In our output perturbation method, the parties combine local models within a secure computation and then add the required differential privacy noise before revealing the model. In our gradient perturbation method, the data owners collaboratively train a global model via an iterative learning algorithm. At each iteration, the parties aggregate their local gradients within a secure computation, adding sufficient noise to ensure privacy before the gradient updates are revealed. For both methods, we show that the noise can be reduced in the multi-party setting by adding the noise inside the secure computation after aggregation, asymptotically improving upon the best previous results. Experiments on real world data sets demonstrate that our methods provide substantial utility gains for typical privacy requirements.

We propose a unified framework for estimating low-rank matrices through nonconvex optimization based on gradient descent algorithm. Our framework is quite general and can be applied to both noisy and noiseless observations. In the general case with noisy observations, we show that our algorithm is guaranteed to linearly converge to the unknown low-rank matrix up to a minimax optimal statistical error, provided an appropriate initial estimator. While in the generic noiseless setting, our algorithm converges to the unknown low-rank matrix at a linear rate and enables exact recovery with optimal sample complexity. In addition, we develop a new initialization algorithm to provide the desired initial estimator, which outperforms existing initialization algorithms for nonconvex low-rank matrix estimation. We illustrate the superiority of our framework through three examples: matrix regression, matrix completion, and one-bit matrix completion. We also corroborate our theory through extensive experiments on synthetic data.

We study the problem of estimating the high-dimensional Gaussian graphical model where the data are arbitrarily corrupted. We propose a robust estimator for the sparse precision matrix in the high-dimensional regime. At the core of our method is a robust covariance matrix estimator, which is based on truncated inner product. We establish the statistical guarantee of our estimator on both estimation error and model selection consistency. In particular, we show that provided that the number of corrupted samples $n_2$ for each variable satisfies $n_2 \lesssim \sqrt{n}/\sqrt{\log d}$, where $n$ is the sample size and $d$ is the number of variables, the proposed robust precision matrix estimator attains the same statistical rate as the standard estimator for Gaussian graphical models. In addition, we propose a hypothesis testing procedure to assess the uncertainty of our robust estimator. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world genomic data.

We propose a generic framework based on a new stochastic variance-reduced gradient descent algorithm for accelerating nonconvex low-rank matrix recovery. Starting from an appropriate initial estimator, our proposed algorithm performs projected gradient descent based on a novel semi-stochastic gradient specifically designed for low-rank matrix recovery. Based upon the mild restricted strong convexity and smoothness conditions, we derive a projected notion of the restricted Lipschitz continuous gradient property, and prove that our algorithm enjoys linear convergence rate to the unknown low-rank matrix with an improved computational complexity. Moreover, our algorithm can be employed to both noiseless and noisy observations, where the (near) optimal sample complexity and statistical rate can be attained respectively. We further illustrate the superiority of our generic framework through several specific examples, both theoretically and experimentally.

We propose a generic stochastic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for the estimation of high-dimensional latent variable models. At the core of our algorithm is a novel semi-stochastic variance-reduced gradient designed for the $Q$-function in the EM algorithm. Under a mild condition on the initialization, our algorithm is guaranteed to attain a linear convergence rate to the unknown parameter of the latent variable model, and achieve an optimal statistical rate up to a logarithmic factor for parameter estimation. Compared with existing high-dimensional EM algorithms, our algorithm enjoys a better computational complexity and is therefore more efficient. We apply our generic algorithm to two illustrative latent variable models: Gaussian mixture model and mixture of linear regression, and demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm by both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments. We believe that the proposed semi-stochastic gradient is of independent interest for general nonconvex optimization problems with bivariate structures.

In this paper, we present a new estimator for precision matrix in high dimensional Gaussian graphical models. At the core of the proposed estimator is a collection of node-wise linear regression with nonconvex penalty. In contrast to existing estimators for Gaussian graphical models with O(s\sqrt\log d/n) estimation error bound in terms of spectral norm, where s is the maximum degree of a graph, the proposed estimator could attain O(s/\sqrtn+\sqrt\log d/n) spectral norm based convergence rate in the best case, and it is no worse than exiting estimators in general. In addition, our proposed estimator enjoys the oracle property under a milder condition than existing estimators. We show through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets that our estimator outperforms the state-of-the art estimators.