Data from cell viability assays, which measure cumulative division and death events in a population and reflect substantial cellular heterogeneity, are widely available. However, interpreting such data with mechanistic computational models is hindered because direct model/data comparison is often muddled. We developed an algorithm that tracks simulated division and death events in mechanistically-detailed single-cell lineages to enable such a model/data comparison and suggest causes of cell-cell drug response variability. Using our previously developed model of mammalian single-cell proliferation and death signaling, we simulated drug dose response experiments for four targeted anti-cancer drugs (alpelisib, neratinib, trametinib and palbociclib) and compared them to experimental data. Simulations are consistent with data for strong growth inhibition by trametinib (MEK inhibitor) and overall lack of efficacy for alpelisib (PI-3K inhibitor), but are inconsistent with data for palbociclib (CDK4/6 inhibitor) and neratinib (EGFR inhibitor). Model/data inconsistencies suggest that (i) the importance of CDK4/6 for driving the cell cycle may be overestimated, and (ii) the cellular balance between basal (tonic) and ligand-induced signaling is a critical determinant of receptor inhibitor response. Simulations show subpopulations of rapidly and slowly dividing cells in both control and drug-treated conditions. Variations in mother cells prior to drug treatment impinging on ERK pathway activity are associated with the rapidly dividing phenotype and trametinib resistance. This work lays a foundation for the application of mechanistic modeling to large-scale cell viability datasets and better understanding determinants of cellular heterogeneity in drug response.

Cancer chemotherapy combines multiple drugs, but predicting the effects of drug combinations on cancer cell proliferation remains challenging, even for simple in vitro systems. We hypothesized that by combining knowledge of single drug dose responses and cell state transition network dynamics, we could predict how a population of cancer cells will respond to drug combinations. We tested this hypothesis here using three targeted inhibitors of different cell cycle states in two different cell lines in vitro. We formulated a Markov model to capture temporal cell state transitions between different cell cycle phases, with single drug data constraining how drug doses affect transition rates. This model was able to predict the landscape of all three different pairwise drug combinations across all dose ranges for both cell lines with no additional data. While further application to different cell lines, more drugs, additional cell state networks, and more complex co-culture or in vivo systems remain, this work demonstrates how currently available or attainable information could be sufficient for prediction of drug combination response for single cell lines in vitro.

Abstract Summary The Community of Special Interest (COSI) in Computational Modelling of Biological Systems (SysMod) brings together interdisciplinary scientists interested in combining data-driven computational modelling, multi-scale mechanistic frameworks, large-scale -omics data and bioinformatics. SysMod’s main activity is an annual meeting at the Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology (ISMB) conference, a meeting for computer scientists, biologists, mathematicians, engineers and computational and systems biologists. The 2021 SysMod meeting was conducted virtually due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (coronavirus disease 2019). During the 2-day meeting, the development of computational tools, approaches and predictive models was discussed, along with their application to biological systems, emphasizing disease mechanisms. This report summarizes the meeting. Availability and implementation All resources and further information are freely accessible at https://sysmod.info.

Computational models of biological systems can exploit a broad range of rapidly developing approaches, including novel experimental approaches, bioinformatics data analysis, emerging modelling paradigms, data standards and algorithms. A discussion about the most recent advances among experts from various domains is crucial to foster data-driven computational modelling and its growing use in assessing and predicting the behaviour of biological systems. Intending to encourage the development of tools, approaches and predictive models, and to deepen our understanding of biological systems, the Community of Special Interest (COSI) was launched in Computational Modelling of Biological Systems (SysMod) in 2016. SysMod's main activity is an annual meeting at the Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology (ISMB) conference, which brings together computer scientists, biologists, mathematicians, engineers, computational and systems biologists. In the five years since its inception, SysMod has evolved into a dynamic and expanding community, as the increasing number of contributions and participants illustrate. SysMod maintains several online resources to facilitate interaction among the community members, including an online forum, a calendar of relevant meetings and a YouTube channel with talks and lectures of interest for the modelling community. For more than half a decade, the growing interest in computational systems modelling and multi-scale data integration has inspired and supported the SysMod community. Its members get progressively more involved and actively contribute to the annual COSI meeting and several related community workshops and meetings, focusing on specific topics, including particular techniques for computational modelling or standardisation efforts.

Most cancer cells harbor multiple drivers whose epistasis and interactions with expression context clouds drug and drug combination sensitivity prediction. We constructed a mechanistic computational model that is context-tailored by omics data to capture regulation of stochastic proliferation and death by pan-cancer driver pathways. Simulations and experiments explore how the coordinated dynamics of RAF/MEK/ERK and PI-3K/AKT kinase activities in response to synergistic mitogen or drug combinations control cell fate in a specific cellular context. In this MCF10A cell context, simulations suggest that synergistic ERK and AKT inhibitor-induced death is likely mediated by BIM rather than BAD, which is supported by prior experimental studies. AKT dynamics explain S-phase entry synergy between EGF and insulin, but simulations suggest that stochastic ERK, and not AKT, dynamics seem to drive cell-to-cell proliferation variability, which in simulations is predictable from pre-stimulus fluctuations in C-Raf/B-Raf levels. Simulations suggest MEK alteration negligibly influences transformation, consistent with clinical data. Tailoring the model to an alternate cell expression and mutation context, a glioma cell line, allows prediction of increased sensitivity of cell death to AKT inhibition. Our model mechanistically interprets context-specific landscapes between driver pathways and cell fates, providing a framework for designing more rational cancer combination therapy.