When modifying existing policies in high-risk settings, it is often necessary to ensure with high certainty that the newly proposed policy improves upon a baseline, such as the status quo. In this work, we consider the problem of safe policy improvement, where one only adopts a new policy if it is deemed to be better than the specified baseline with at least a pre-specified probability. We focus on threshold policies, a ubiquitous class of policies with applications in economics, healthcare, and digital advertising. Existing methods rely on potentially underpowered safety checks and limit the opportunities for finding safe improvements, so too often they must revert to the baseline to maintain safety. We overcome these issues by leveraging the most powerful safety test in the asymptotic regime and allowing for multiple candidates to be tested for improvement over the baseline. We show that in adversarial settings, our approach controls the rate of adopting a policy worse than the baseline to the pre-specified error level, even in moderate sample sizes. We present CSPI and CSPI-MT, two novel algorithms for selecting cutoff(s) to maximize the policy improvement from baseline. We demonstrate through both synthetic and external datasets that our approaches improve both the detection rates of safe policies and the realized improvement, particularly under stringent safety requirements and low signal-to-noise conditions.

Technology firms conduct randomized controlled experiments ("A/B tests") to learn which actions to take to improve business outcomes.In firms with mature experimentation platforms, experimentation programs can consist of many thousands of tests.To effectively scale experimentation, firms rely on decision rules: standard operating procedures for mapping the results of an experiment to a choice of treatment arm to launch to the general user population.Despite the critical role of decision rules in translating experimentation into business decisions, rigorous guidance on how to evaluate and choose decision rules is scarce.This paper proposes to evaluate decision rules based on their cumulative returns to business north star metrics.Although intuitive and easy to explain to decisionmakers, this quantity can be difficult to estimate, especially when experiments have weak signal-to-noise ratios.We develop a crossvalidation estimator that is much less biased than the naive plug-in estimator under conditions realistic to digital experimentation.We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach via a case study of 123 historical A/B tests at Netflix, where we used it to show that a new decision rule would have increased cumulative returns to the north star metric by an estimated 33%, directly leading to the adoption of the new rule.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are revolutionizing conversational recommender systems (CRS) by effectively indexing item content, understanding complex conversational contexts, and generating relevant item titles. However, the autoregressive nature of LLMs, which outputs item titles as a long sequence of subtokens, hinders the ability to efficiently obtain and control recommendations across the entire item set. This challenge in calculating probabilities over all items limits LLMs' potential, such as (1) limiting control over recommendation popularities and (2) preventing the synergy of marrying LLMs and traditional recommender systems (RecSys).

Matrix factorization is a widely used approach for top-N recommendation and collaborative filtering. When implemented on implicit feedback data (such as clicks), a common heuristic is to upweight the observed interactions. This strategy has been shown to improve performance for certain algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of various weighting schemes and matrix factorization algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that training with unweighted data can perform comparably to-and sometimes outperform-training with weighted data, especially for large models. This observation challenges the conventional wisdom. Nevertheless, we identify cases where weighting can be beneficial, particularly for models with lower capacity and specific regularization schemes. We also derive efficient algorithms for exactly minimizing several weighted objectives that were previously considered computationally intractable. Our work provides a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between weighting, regularization, and model capacity in matrix factorization for recommender systems.

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) aim to provide personalized recommendations via interactive dialogues with users. While large language models (LLMs) enhance CRS with their superior understanding of context-aware user preferences, they typically struggle to leverage behavioral data, which have proven to be important for classical collaborative filtering (CF)-based approaches. For this reason, we propose CRAG-Collaborative Retrieval Augmented Generation for LLM-based CRS. To the best of our knowledge, CRAG is the first approach that combines state-of-the-art LLMs with CF for conversational recommendations. Our experiments on two publicly available movie conversational recommendation datasets, i.e., a refined Reddit dataset (which we name Reddit-v2) as well as the Redial dataset, demonstrate the superior item coverage and recommendation performance of CRAG, compared to several CRS baselines. Moreover, we observe that the improvements are mainly due to better recommendation accuracy on recently released movies. The code and data are available at https://github.com/yaochenzhu/CRAG.

When primary objectives are insensitive or delayed, experimenters may instead focus on proxy metrics derived from secondary outcomes. For example, technology companies often infer the long-term impacts of product interventions from their effects on short-term user engagement signals. We consider the meta-analysis of many historical experiments to learn the covariance of treatment effects on these outcomes, which can support the construction of such proxies. Even when experiments are plentiful, if treatment effects are weak, the covariance of estimated treatment effects across experiments can be highly biased. We overcome this with techniques inspired by weak instrumental variable analysis. We show that Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) learns a parameter equivalent to fitting total least squares to a transformation of the scatterplot of treatment effects, and that Jackknife Instrumental Variables Estimation (JIVE) learns another parameter computable from the average of Jackknifed covariance matrices across experiments. We also present a total covariance estimator for the latter estimand under homoskedasticity, which is equivalent to a k-class estimator. We show how these parameters can be used to construct unbiased proxy metrics under various structural models. Lastly, we discuss the real-world application of our methods at Netflix.

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) should understand users’ expressed interests, which are frequently semantically rich and knowledge-intensive. Prior works attempt to address this challenge by using external knowledge bases or parametric knowledge in large language models (LLMs). In this paper, we study a complementary solution, exploiting item knowledge in the training data. We hypothesize that many inference-time user requests can be answered by reusing popular crowd-written answers associated with similar training queries. Following this intuition, we define a class of neighborhood-based CRS that makes recommendations by identifying items commonly associated with similar training dialogue contexts. Experiments on Inspired, Redial, and Reddit-Movie benchmarks show our method outperforms state-of-the-art LLMs with 2 billion parameters, and offers on-par performance to 7 billion parameter models while using over 170 times less GPU memory. We also show neighborhood and model-based predictions can be combined to achieve further performance improvements1.

In this paper, we present empirical studies on conversational recommendation tasks using representative large language models in a zero-shot setting with three primary contributions. (1) Data: To gain insights into model behavior in "in-the-wild" conversational recommendation scenarios, we construct a new dataset of recommendation-related conversations by scraping a popular discussion website. This is the largest public real-world conversational recommendation dataset to date. (2) Evaluation: On the new dataset and two existing conversational recommendation datasets, we observe that even without fine-tuning, large language models can outperform existing fine-tuned conversational recommendation models. (3) Analysis: We propose various probing tasks to investigate the mechanisms behind the remarkable performance of large language models in conversational recommendation. We analyze both the large language models' behaviors and the characteristics of the datasets, providing a holistic understanding of the models' effectiveness, limitations and suggesting directions for the design of future conversational recommenders.