OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, elucidate the influence of socioeconomic factors, and assess algorithmic racial fairness using a racially diverse patient population with high social needs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data included 7,102 patients with positive (RT-PCR) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test at a safety-net system in Massachusetts. Linear and nonlinear classification methods were applied. A score based on a recurrent neural network and a transformer architecture was developed to capture the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Combined with patient characteristics, clinical variables, and hospital occupancy measures, this dynamic vital score was used to train predictive models. RESULTS: Hospitalizations can be predicted with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 92% using symptoms, hospital occupancy, and patient characteristics, including social determinants of health. Parsimonious models to predict intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality that used the most recent labs and vitals exhibited AUCs of 92.7%, 91.2%, and 94%, respectively. Early predictive models, using labs and vital signs closer to admission had AUCs of 81.1%, 84.9%, and 92%, respectively. DISCUSSION: The most accurate models exhibit racial bias, being more likely to falsely predict that Black patients will be hospitalized. Models that are only based on the dynamic vital score exhibited accuracies close to the best parsimonious models, although the latter also used laboratories. CONCLUSIONS: This large study demonstrates that COVID-19 severity may accurately be predicted using a score that accounts for the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Further, race, social determinants of health, and hospital occupancy play an important role.

OBJECTIVE: In response to COVID-19, the informatics community united to aggregate as much clinical data as possible to characterize this new disease and reduce its impact through collaborative analytics. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) is now the largest publicly available HIPAA limited dataset in US history with over 6.4 million patients and is a testament to a partnership of over 100 organizations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a pipeline for ingesting, harmonizing, and centralizing data from 56 contributing data partners using 4 federated Common Data Models. N3C data quality (DQ) review involves both automated and manual procedures. In the process, several DQ heuristics were discovered in our centralized context, both within the pipeline and during downstream project-based analysis. Feedback to the sites led to many local and centralized DQ improvements. RESULTS: Beyond well-recognized DQ findings, we discovered 15 heuristics relating to source Common Data Model conformance, demographics, COVID tests, conditions, encounters, measurements, observations, coding completeness, and fitness for use. Of 56 sites, 37 sites (66%) demonstrated issues through these heuristics. These 37 sites demonstrated improvement after receiving feedback. DISCUSSION: We encountered site-to-site differences in DQ which would have been challenging to discover using federated checks alone. We have demonstrated that centralized DQ benchmarking reveals unique opportunities for DQ improvement that will support improved research analytics locally and in aggregate. CONCLUSION: By combining rapid, continual assessment of DQ with a large volume of multisite data, it is possible to support more nuanced scientific questions with the scale and rigor that they require.

OBJECTIVE: The study sought to design, pilot, and evaluate a federated data completeness tracking system (CTX) for assessing completeness in research data extracted from electronic health record data across the Accessible Research Commons for Health (ARCH) Clinical Data Research Network. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The CTX applies a systems-based approach to design workflow and technology for assessing completeness across distributed electronic health record data repositories participating in a queryable, federated network. The CTX invokes 2 positive feedback loops that utilize open source tools (DQe-c and Vue) to integrate technology and human actors in a system geared for increasing capacity and taking action. A pilot implementation of the system involved 6 ARCH partner sites between January 2017 and May 2018. RESULTS: The ARCH CTX has enabled the network to monitor and, if needed, adjust its data management processes to maintain complete datasets for secondary use. The system allows the network and its partner sites to profile data completeness both at the network and partner site levels. Interactive visualizations presenting the current state of completeness in the context of the entire network as well as changes in completeness across time were valued among the CTX user base. DISCUSSION: Distributed clinical data networks are complex systems. Top-down approaches that solely rely on technology to report data completeness may be necessary but not sufficient for improving completeness (and quality) of data in large-scale clinical data networks. Improving and maintaining complete (high-quality) data in such complex environments entails sociotechnical systems that exploit technology and empower human actors to engage in the process of high-quality data curating. CONCLUSIONS: The CTX has increased the network's capacity to rapidly identify data completeness issues and empowered ARCH partner sites to get involved in improving the completeness of respective data in their repositories.

Urban living in modern large cities has significant adverse effects on health, increasing the risk of several chronic diseases. We focus on the two leading clusters of chronic diseases, heart disease and diabetes, and develop data-driven methods to predict hospitalizations due to these conditions. We base these predictions on the patients' medical history, recent and more distant, as described in their Electronic Health Records (EHRs). We formulate the prediction problem as a binary classification problem and consider a variety of machine learning methods, including kernelized and sparse Support Vector Machines (SVMs), sparse logistic regression, and random forests. To strike a balance between accuracy and interpretability of the prediction, which is important in a medical setting, we propose two novel methods: K -LRT, a likelihood ratio test-based method, and a Joint Clustering and Classification (JCC) method which identifies hidden patient clusters and adapts classifiers to each cluster. We develop theoretical out-of-sample guarantees for the latter method. We validate our algorithms on large data sets from the Boston Medical Center, the largest safety-net hospital system in New England.

OBJECTIVE: One promise of nationwide adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) is the availability of data for large-scale clinical research studies. However, because the same patient could be treated at multiple health care institutions, data from only a single site might not contain the complete medical history for that patient, meaning that critical events could be missing. In this study, we evaluate how simple heuristic checks for data "completeness" affect the number of patients in the resulting cohort and introduce potential biases. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We began with a set of 16 filters that check for the presence of demographics, laboratory tests, and other types of data, and then systematically applied all 216 possible combinations of these filters to the EHR data for 12 million patients at 7 health care systems and a separate payor claims database of 7 million members. RESULTS: EHR data showed considerable variability in data completeness across sites and high correlation between data types. For example, the fraction of patients with diagnoses increased from 35.0% in all patients to 90.9% in those with at least 1 medication. An unrelated claims dataset independently showed that most filters select members who are older and more likely female and can eliminate large portions of the population whose data are actually complete. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: As investigators design studies, they need to balance their confidence in the completeness of the data with the effects of placing requirements on the data on the resulting patient cohort.

We describe the architecture of the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) funded Scalable Collaborative Infrastructure for a Learning Healthcare System (SCILHS, http://www.SCILHS.org) clinical data research network, which leverages the $48 billion dollar federal investment in health information technology (IT) to enable a queryable semantic data model across 10 health systems covering more than 8 million patients, plugging universally into the point of care, generating evidence and discovery, and thereby enabling clinician and patient participation in research during the patient encounter. Central to the success of SCILHS is development of innovative 'apps' to improve PCOR research methods and capacitate point of care functions such as consent, enrollment, randomization, and outreach for patient-reported outcomes. SCILHS adapts and extends an existing national research network formed on an advanced IT infrastructure built with open source, free, modular components.