Individuals suffering from Opioid Use Disorder and other socially stigmatized conditions often rely on peer support groups to find comfort and motivation while treating their condition. Many may face barriers in accessing peer support treatment, such as shame and social stigma, seclusion, or mobility restrictions. In this study, we quantitatively characterize the potential of the Reddit community in offering these individuals an online alternative to receiving peer support. By analyzing the social interactions of thousands of users during the start of opioid use recovery, we uncover that a particular Reddit community exhibits many characteristics similar to in-person peer support groups, featuring the exchange of support, trust, status, and similar experiences. We find that the supportive behavior of this community nudges users to change their personal behavior, and promotes abandoning opioid-related communities in favor of recovery-oriented relationships. Finally, we find that recognition, acknowledgment, and knowledge exchange are the most relevant factors in sustained engagement with the recovery community. Given this evidence, we suggest that this online community may constitute a complement or a surrogate to peer support groups when in-person meetings are not desirable or possible. Our work might inspire harm reduction policies and interventions to favor successful rehabilitation and is fundamental for future research about the use of digital media for recovery support.

Most methods for explaining black-box classifiers (e.g., on tabular data, images, or time series) rely on measuring the impact that removing/perturbing features has on the model output. This forces the explanation language to match the classifier's feature space. However, when dealing with graph data, in which the basic features correspond to the edges describing the graph structure, this matching between features space and explanation language might not be appropriate. Decoupling the feature space (edges) from a desired high-lever explanation language (such as motifs) is thus a major challenge towards developing actionable explanations for graph classification tasks. In this paper we introduce Graphshap, a Shapley-based approach able to provide motif-based explanations for identityaware graph classifiers, assuming no knowledge whatsoever about the model or its training data: the only requirement is that the classifier can be queried as a black-box at will. For the sake of computational efficiency we explore a progressive approximation strategy and show how a simple kernel can efficiently approximate explanation scores, thus allowing Graphshap to scale on scenarios with a large explanation space (i.e., large number of motifs). We showcase Graphshap on a real-world brain-network dataset consisting of patients affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder and a control group. Our experiments highlight how the classification provided by a black-box model can be effectively explained by few connectomics patterns.

Several explainable AI methods allow a Machine Learning user to get insights on the classification process of a black-box model in the form of local linear explanations. With such information, the user can judge which features are locally relevant for the classification outcome, and get an understanding of how the model reasons. Standard supervised learning processes are purely driven by the original features and target labels, without any feedback loop informed by the local relevance of the features identified by the post-hoc explanations.In this paper, we exploit this newly obtained information to design a feature engineering phase, where we combine explanations with feature values. To do so, we develop two different strategies, named Iterative Dataset Weighting and Targeted Replacement Values, which generate streamlined models that better mimic the explanation process presented to the user. We show how these streamlined models compare to the original black-box classifiers, in terms of accuracy and compactness of the newly produced explanations.

The pervasive application of algorithmic decision-making is raising concerns on the risk of unintended bias in AI systems deployed in critical settings such as healthcare. The detection and mitigation of model bias is a very delicate task that should be tackled with care and involving domain experts in the loop. In this paper we introduce FairLens, a methodology for discovering and explaining biases. We show how this tool can audit a fictional commercial black-box model acting as a clinical decision support system (DSS). In this scenario, the healthcare facility experts can use FairLens on their historical data to discover the biases of the model before incorporating it into the clinical decision flow. FairLens first stratifies the available patient data according to demographic attributes such as age, ethnicity, gender and healthcare insurance; it then assesses the model performance on such groups highlighting the most common misclassifications. Finally, FairLens allows the expert to examine one misclassification of interest by explaining which elements of the affected patients’ clinical history drive the model error in the problematic group. We validate FairLens’ ability to highlight bias in multilabel clinical DSSs introducing a multilabel-appropriate metric of disparity and proving its efficacy against other standard metrics.

The promise of efficacious vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 is fulfilled and vaccination campaigns have started worldwide. However, the fight against the pandemic is far from over. Here, we propose an age-structured compartmental model to study the interplay of disease transmission, vaccines rollout, and behavioural dynamics. We investigate, via in-silico simulations, individual and societal behavioural changes, possibly induced by the start of the vaccination campaigns, and manifested as a relaxation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. We explore different vaccination rollout speeds, prioritization strategies, vaccine efficacy, as well as multiple behavioural responses. We apply our model to six countries worldwide (Egypt, Peru, Serbia, Ukraine, Canada, and Italy), selected to sample diverse socio-demographic and socio-economic contexts. To isolate the effects of age-structures and contacts patterns from the particular pandemic history of each location, we first study the model considering the same hypothetical initial epidemic scenario in all countries. We then calibrate the model using real epidemiological and mobility data for the different countries. Our findings suggest that early relaxation of safe behaviours can jeopardize the benefits brought by the vaccine in the short term: a fast vaccine distribution and policies aimed at keeping high compliance of individual safe behaviours are key to mitigate disease resurgence.

Assessing the impact of mobility on epidemic spreading is of crucial importance for understanding the effect of policies like mass quarantines and selective re-openings. While many factors affect disease incidence at a local level, making it more or less homogeneous with respect to other areas, the importance of multi-seeding has often been overlooked. Multi-seeding occurs when several independent (non-clustered) infected individuals arrive at a susceptible population. This can lead to independent outbreaks that spark from distinct areas of the local contact (social) network. Such mechanism has the potential to boost incidence, making control efforts and contact tracing less effective. Here, through a modeling approach we show that the effect produced by the number of initial infections is non-linear on the incidence peak and peak time. When case importations are carried by mobility from an already infected area, this effect is further enhanced by the local demography and underlying mixing patterns: the impact of every seed is larger in smaller populations. Finally, both in the model simulations and the analysis, we show that a multi-seeding effect combined with mobility restrictions can explain the observed spatial heterogeneities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in five European countries. Our results allow us for identifying what we have called epidemic epicenter: an area that shapes incidence and mortality peaks in the entire country. The present work further clarifies the nonlinear effects that mobility can have on the evolution of an epidemic and highlight their relevance for epidemic control.

In the last decade drug overdose deaths reached staggering proportions in the US. Besides the raw yearly deaths count that is worrisome per se, an alarming picture comes from the steep acceleration of such rate that increased by 21% from 2015 to 2016. While traditional public health surveillance suffers from its own biases and limitations, digital epidemiology offers a new lens to extract signals from Web and Social Media that might be complementary to official statistics. In this paper we present a computational approach to identify a digital cohort that might provide an updated and complementary view on the opioid crisis. We introduce an information retrieval algorithm suitable to identify relevant subspaces of discussion on social media, for mining data from users showing explicit interest in discussions about opioid consumption in Reddit. Moreover, despite the pseudonymous nature of the user base, almost 1.5 million users were geolocated at the US state level, resembling the census population distribution with a good agreement. A measure of prevalence of interest in opiate consumption has been estimated at the state level, producing a novel indicator with information that is not entirely encoded in the standard surveillance. Finally, we further provide a domain specific vocabulary containing informal lexicon and street nomenclature extracted by user-generated content that can be used by researchers and practitioners to implement novel digital public health surveillance methodologies for supporting policy makers in fighting the opioid epidemic.

Abstract In this paper we present Top Tom, a digital platform whose goal is to provide analytical and visual solutions for the exploration of a dynamic corpus of user‐generated messages and media articles, with the aim of i) distilling the information from thousands of documents in a low‐dimensional space of explainable topics, ii) cluster them in a hierarchical fashion while allowing to drill down to details and stories as constituents of the topics, iii) spotting trends and anomalies. Top Tom implements a batch processing pipeline able to run both in near‐real time with time stamped data from streaming sources and on historical data with a temporal dimension in a cold start mode. The resulting output unfolds along three main axes: time, volume and semantic similarity (i.e. topic hierarchical aggregation). To allow the browsing of data in a multiscale fashion and the identification of anomalous behaviors, three visual metaphors were adopted from biological and medical fields to design visualizations, i.e. the flowing of particles in a coherent stream, tomographic cross sectioning and contrast‐like analysis of biological tissues. The platform interface is composed by three main visualizations with coherent and smooth navigation interactions: calendar view, flow view, and temporal cut view. The integration of these three visual models with the multiscale analytic pipeline proposes a novel system for the identification and exploration of topics from unstructured texts. We evaluated the system using a collection of documents about the emerging opioid epidemics in the United States.

The spread of tick-borne pathogens represents an important threat to human and animal health in many parts of Eurasia. Here, we analysed a 9-year time series of Ixodes ricinus ticks feeding on Apodemus flavicollis mice (main reservoir-competent host for tick-borne encephalitis, TBE) sampled in Trentino (Northern Italy). The tail of the distribution of the number of ticks per host was fitted by three theoretical distributions: Negative Binomial (NB), Poisson-LogNormal (PoiLN), and Power-Law (PL). The fit with theoretical distributions indicated that the tail of the tick infestation pattern on mice is better described by the PL distribution. Moreover, we found that the tail of the distribution significantly changes with seasonal variations in host abundance. In order to investigate the effect of different tails of tick distribution on the invasion of a non-systemically transmitted pathogen, we simulated the transmission of a TBE-like virus between susceptible and infective ticks using a stochastic model. Model simulations indicated different outcomes of disease spreading when considering different distribution laws of ticks among hosts. Specifically, we found that the epidemic threshold and the prevalence equilibria obtained in epidemiological simulations with PL distribution are a good approximation of those observed in simulations feed by the empirical distribution. Moreover, we also found that the epidemic threshold for disease invasion was lower when considering the seasonal variation of tick aggregation.

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be chosen in light of the desired accuracy for the epidemic situation under study.