An increasingly important aspect of designing recommender systems involves considering how recommendations will influence consumer choices. This paper addresses this issue by introducing a method for collecting user beliefs about un-experienced goods – a critical predictor of choice behavior. We implemented this method on the MovieLens platform, resulting in a rich dataset that combines user ratings, beliefs, and observed recommendations. We document challenges to such data collection, including selection bias in response and limited coverage of the product space. This unique resource empowers researchers to delve deeper into user behavior and analyze user choices absent recommendations, measure the effectiveness of recommendations, and prototype algorithms that leverage user belief data, ultimately leading to more impactful recommender systems. The dataset can be found at https://grouplens.org/datasets/movielens/ml_belief_2024/.

We conduct a 6 month field experiment on a movie-recommendation platform to identify if and how recommendation systems affect consumption. We use within-consumer randomization at the good level and elicit beliefs about unconsumed goods to disentangle exposure from informational effects. We have three experimental groups: (a) control, (b) exposed, and (c) recommended + exposed goods where only goods in (c) are recommended and we elicit beliefs about goods in (b) and (c). Comparing across these treatment arms we find recommendations increase consumption beyond its role in exposing goods to consumers. We provide support for an informational mechanism: recommendations affect consumers' beliefs, which in turn explain consumption. Recommendations reduce uncertainty about goods consumers are most uncertain about and induce information acquisition. Finally, we find evidence for spatial correlation in beliefs.

We study a model of user decision-making in the context of recommender systems via numerical simulation. Our model provides an explanation for the findings of Nguyen, et. al (2014), where, in environments where recommender systems are typically deployed, users consume increasingly similar items over time even without recommendation. We find that recommendation alleviates these natural filter-bubble effects, but that it also leads to an increase in homogeneity across users, resulting in a trade-off between homogenizing across-user consumption and diversifying within-user consumption. Finally, we discuss how our model highlights the importance of collecting data on user beliefs and their evolution over time both to design better recommendations and to further understand their impact.