Our paper builds on the recent trend of using neural networks trained with self-supervised or supervised learning to solve the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) task in discrete graphical models. At inference time, these networks take an evidence assignment as input and generate the most likely assignment for the remaining variables via a single forward pass. We address two key limitations of existing approaches: (1) the inability to fully exploit the graphical model’s structure and parameters, and (2) the suboptimal discretization of continuous neural network outputs. Our approach embeds model structure and parameters into a more expressive feature representation, significantly improving performance. Existing methods rely on standard thresholding, which often yields suboptimal results due to the non-convexity of the loss function. We introduce two methods to overcome discretization challenges: (1) an external oracle-based approach that infers uncertain variables using additional evidence from confidently predicted ones, and (2) a technique that identifies and selects the highest-scoring discrete solutions near the continuous output. Experimental results on various probabilistic models demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our approach, highlighting its practical impact.

We introduce learning to condition (L2C), a scalable, data-driven framework for accelerating Most Probable Explanation (MPE) inference in Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs)—a fundamentally intractable problem. L2C trains a neural network to score variable-value assignments based on their utility for conditioning, given observed evidence. To facilitate supervised learning, we develop a scalable data generation pipeline that extracts training signals from the search traces of existing MPE solvers. The trained network serves as a heuristic that integrates with search algorithms, acting as a conditioning strategy prior to exact inference or as a branching and node selection policy within branch-and-bound solvers. We evaluate L2C on challenging MPE queries involving high-treewidth PGMs. Experiments show that our learned heuristic significantly reduces the search space while maintaining or improving solution quality over state-of-the-art methods.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks efficiently represent large multi-variate probability distributions. They are preferred in practice over other probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, because PCs can solve marginal inference (MAR) tasks in time that scales linearly in the size of the network. Unfortunately, the most probable explanation (MPE) task and its generalization, the marginal maximum-a-posteriori (MMAP) inference task remain NP-hard in these models. Inspired by the recent work on using neural networks for generating near-optimal solutions to optimization problems such as integer linear programming, we propose an approach that uses neural networks to approximate MMAP inference in PCs. The key idea in our approach is to approximate the cost of an assignment to the query variables using a continuous multilinear function and then use the latter as a loss function. The two main benefits of our new method are that it is self-supervised, and after the neural network is learned, it requires only linear time to output a solution. We evaluate our new approach on several benchmark datasets and show that it outperforms three competing linear time approximations: max-product inference, max-marginal inference, and sequential estimation, which are used in practice to solve MMAP tasks in PCs.

We propose a self-supervised learning approach for solving the following constrained optimization task in log-linear models or Markov networks. Let $f$ and $g$ be two log-linear models defined over the sets $X$ and $Y$ of random variables. Given an assignment $x$ to all variables in $X$ (evidence or observations) and a real number $q$, the constrained most-probable explanation (CMPE) task seeks to find an assignment $y$ to all variables in $Y$ such that $f(x, y)$ is maximized and $g(x, y) \leq q$. In our proposed self-supervised approach, given assignments $x$ to $X$ (data), we train a deep neural network that learns to output near-optimal solutions to the CMPE problem without requiring access to any pre-computed solutions. The key idea in our approach is to use first principles and approximate inference methods for CMPE to derive novel loss functions that seek to push infeasible solutions towards feasible ones and feasible solutions towards optimal ones. We analyze the properties of our proposed method and experimentally demonstrate its efficacy on several benchmark problems.

We propose a novel neural networks based approach to efficiently answer arbitrary Most Probable Explanation (MPE) queries—a well-known NP-hard task—in large probabilistic models such as Bayesian and Markov networks, probabilistic circuits, and neural auto-regressive models. By arbitrary MPE queries, we mean that there is no predefined partition of variables into evidence and non-evidence variables. The key idea is to distill all MPE queries over a given probabilistic model into a neural network and then use the latter for answering queries, eliminating the need for time-consuming inference algorithms that operate directly on the probabilistic model. We improve upon this idea by incorporating inference-time optimization with self-supervised loss to iteratively improve the solutions and employ a teacher-student framework that provides a better initial network, which in turn, helps reduce the number of inference-time optimization steps. The teacher network utilizes a self-supervised loss function optimized for getting the exact MPE solution, while the student network learns from the teacher's near-optimal outputs through supervised loss. We demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of our approach on various datasets and a broad class of probabilistic models, showcasing its practical effectiveness.

We consider the following video activity recognition (VAR) task: given a video, infer the set of activities being performed in the video and assign each frame to an activity. Although VAR can be solved accurately using existing deep learning techniques, deep networks are neither interpretable nor explainable and as a result their use is problematic in high stakes decision-making applications (in healthcare, experimental Biology, aviation, law, etc.). In such applications, failure may lead to disastrous consequences and therefore it is necessary that the user is able to either understand the inner workings of the model or probe it to understand its reasoning patterns for a given decision. We address these limitations of deep networks by proposing a new approach that feeds the output of a deep model into a tractable, interpretable probabilistic model called a dynamic conditional cutset network that is defined over the explanatory and output variables and then performing joint inference over the combined model. The two key benefits of using cutset networks are: (a) they explicitly model the relationship between the output and explanatory variables and as a result, the combined model is likely to be more accurate than the vanilla deep model and (b) they can answer reasoning queries in polynomial time and as a result, they can derive meaningful explanations by efficiently answering explanation queries. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on two datasets, Textually Annotated Cooking Scenes (TACoS), and wet lab, using conventional evaluation measures such as the Jaccard Index and Hamming Loss, as well as a human-subjects study.

Tractable models such as cutset networks and sum-product networks (SPNs) have become increasingly popular because they have superior predictive performance. Among them, cutset networks, which model the mechanics of Pearl’s cutset conditioning algorithm, demonstrate great scalability and prediction accuracy. Existing research on cutset networks has mainly focused on discrete domains, and the best mechanism to extend cutset networks to continuous domains is unclear. We propose one possible alternative to cutset networks that models the full joint distribution as the product of a local, complex distribution over a small subset of variables and a fully tractable conditional distribution whose parameters are controlled using a neural network. This model admits exact inference when all variables in the local distribution are observed, and although the model is not fully tractable in general, we show that “cutset” sampling can be employed to efficiently generate accurate predictions in practice. We show that our model performs comparably or better than existing competitors through a variety of prediction tasks on real datasets.

Tractable probabilistic models such as cutset networks which admit exact linear time posterior marginal inference are often preferred in practice over intractable models such as Bayesian and Markov networks. This is because although tractable models, when learned from data, are slightly inferior to the intractable ones in terms of goodness-of-fit measures such as log-likelihood, they do not use approximate inference at prediction time and as a result exhibit superior predictive performance. In this paper, we consider the problem of improving a tractable model using a large number of local probability estimates, each defined over a small subset of variables that are either available from experts or via an external process. Given a model learned from fully-observed, but small amount of possibly noisy data, the key idea in our approach is to update the parameters of the model via a gradient descent procedure that seeks to minimize a convex combination of two quantities: one that enforces closeness via KL divergence to the local estimates and another that enforces closeness to the given model. We show that although the gradients are NP-hard to compute on arbitrary graphical models, they can be efficiently computed over tractable models. We show via experiments that our approach yields tractable models that are significantly superior to the ones learned from small amount of possibly noisy data, even when the local estimates are inconsistent.

Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) compactly represent a joint probability distribution over a large number of random variables and admit polynomial time computation of (1) exact likelihoods; (2) marginal probability distributions over a small subset of variables given evidence; and (3) in some cases most probable explanations over all non-observed variables given observations. In this paper, we leverage these tractability properties to solve the robust maximum likelihood parameter estimation task in TPMs under the assumption that a TPM structure and complete training data is provided as input. Specifically, we show that TPMs learned by optimizing the likelihood perform poorly when data is subject to adversarial attacks/noise/perturbations/corruption and we can address this issue by optimizing robust likelihood. To this end, we develop an efficient approach for constructing uncertainty sets that model data corruption in TPMs and derive an efficient gradient-based local search method for learning TPMs that are robust against these uncertainty sets. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach on a collection of benchmark datasets.

While EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approaches aim to improve human-AI collaborative decision-making by improving model transparency and mental model formations, experiential factors associated with human users can cause challenges in ways system designers do not anticipate. In this article, we first showcase a user study on how anchoring bias can potentially affect mental model formations when users initially interact with an intelligent system and the role of explanations in addressing this bias. Using a video activity recognition tool in cooking domain, we asked participants to verify whether a set of kitchen policies are being followed, with each policy focusing on a weakness or a strength. We controlled the order of the policies and the presence of explanations to test our hypotheses. Our main finding shows that those who observed system strengths early on were more prone to automation bias and made significantly more errors due to positive first impressions of the system, while they built a more accurate mental model of the system competencies. However, those who encountered weaknesses earlier made significantly fewer errors, since they tended to rely more on themselves, while they also underestimated model competencies due to having a more negative first impression of the model. Motivated by these findings and similar existing work, we formalize and present a conceptual model of user’s past experiences that examine the relations between user’s backgrounds, experiences, and human factors in XAI systems based on usage time. Our work presents strong findings and implications, aiming to raise the awareness of AI designers toward biases associated with user impressions and backgrounds.

Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) are appealing because they admit polynomial-time inference for a wide variety of queries. In this work, we extend the cutset network (CN) framework, a powerful sub-class of TPMs that often outperforms probabilistic graphical models in terms of prediction accuracy, to the temporal domain. This extension, dubbed dynamic cutset networks (DCNs), uses a CN to model the prior distribution and a conditional CN to model the transition distribution. We show that although exact inference is intractable when arbitrary conditional CNs are used, particle filtering is efficient. To ensure tractability of exact inference, we introduce a novel constrained conditional model called AND/OR conditional cutset networks and show that under certain conditions exact inference is linear in the size of the corresponding constrained DCN. Experiments on several sequential datasets demonstrate the efficacy of our framework.

EXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) approaches are used to bring transparency to machine learning and artificial intelligence models, and hence, improve the decision-making process for their end-users. While these methods aim to improve human understanding and their mental models, cognitive biases can still influence a user’s mental model and decision-making in ways that system designers do not anticipate. This paper presents research on cognitive biases due to ordering effects in intelligent systems. We conducted a controlled user study to understand how the order of observing system weaknesses and strengths can affect the user’s mental model, task performance, and reliance on the intelligent system, and we investigate the role of explanations in addressing this bias. Using an explainable video activity recognition tool in the cooking domain, we asked participants to verify whether a set of kitchen policies are being followed, with each policy focusing on a weakness or a strength. We controlled the order of the policies and the presence of explanations to test our hypotheses. Our main finding shows that those who observed system strengths early-on were more prone to automation bias and made significantly more errors due to positive first impressions of the system, while they built a more accurate mental model of the system competencies. On the other hand, those who encountered weaknesses earlier made significantly fewer errors since they tended to rely more on themselves, while they also underestimated model competencies due to having a more negative first impression of the model. Our work presents strong findings that aim to make intelligent system designers aware of such biases when designing such tools.

We propose several schemes for upper bounding the optimal value of the constrained most probable explanation (CMPE) problem. Given a set of discrete random variables, two probabilistic graphical models defined over them and a real number $q$, this problem involves finding an assignment of values to all the variables such that the probability of the assignment is maximized according to the first model and is bounded by $q$ w.r.t. the second model. In prior work, it was shown that CMPE is a unifying problem with several applications and special cases including the nearest assignment problem, the decision preserving most probable explanation task and robust estimation. It was also shown that CMPE is NP-hard even on tractable models such as bounded treewidth networks and is hard for integer linear programming methods because it includes a dense global constraint. The main idea in our approach is to simplify the problem via Lagrange relaxation and decomposition to yield either a knapsack problem or the unconstrained most probable explanation (MPE) problem, and then solving the two problems, respectively using specialized knapsack algorithms and mini-buckets based upper bounding schemes. We evaluate our proposed scheme along several dimensions including quality of the bounds and computation time required on various benchmark graphical models and how it can be used to find heuristic, near-optimal feasible solutions in an example application pertaining to robust estimation and adversarial attacks on classifiers.

We consider the following constrained maximization problem in discrete probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). Given two (possibly identical) PGMs $M_1$ and $M_2$ defined over the same set of variables and a real number $q$, find an assignment of values to all variables such that the probability of the assignment is maximized w.r.t. $M_1$ and is smaller than $q$ w.r.t. $M_2$. We show that several explanation and robust estimation queries over graphical models are special cases of this problem. We propose a class of approximate algorithms for solving this problem. Our algorithms are based on a graph concept called $k$-separator and heuristic algorithms for multiple choice knapsack and subset-sum problems. Our experiments show that our algorithms are superior to the following approach: encode the problem as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) and solve the latter using a state-of-the-art MILP solver such as SCIP.

Tractable probabilistic models obviate the need for unreliable approximate inference approaches and as a result often yield accurate query answers in practice. However, most tractable models that achieve state-of-the-art generalization performance (measured using test set likelihood score) use latent variables. Such models admit poly-time marginal (MAR) inference but do not admit poly-time (full) maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) inference. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose a novel approach for inducing cutset networks, a well-known tractable, highly interpretable representation that does not use latent variables and admits linear time MAR as well as MAP inference. Our approach addresses a major limitation of existing techniques that learn cutset networks from data in that their accuracy is quite low as compared to latent variable models such as ensembles of cutset networks and sum-product networks. The key idea in our approach is to construct deep cutset networks by not only learning them from data but also compiling them from a more accurate latent tractable model. We show experimentally that our new approach yields more accurate MAP estimates as compared with existing approaches and significantly improves the test set log-likelihood score of cutset networks bringing them closer in terms of generalization performance to latent variable models.

Recently there has been growing interest in learning probabilistic models that admit poly-time inference called tractable probabilistic models from data. Although they generalize poorly as compared to intractable models, they often yield more accurate estimates at prediction time. In this paper, we seek to further explore this trade-off between generalization performance and inference accuracy by proposing a novel, partially tractable representation called cutset Bayesian networks (CBNs). The main idea in CBNs is to partition the variables into two subsets X and Y, learn a (intractable) Bayesian network that represents P(X) and a tractable conditional model that represents P(Y|X). The hope is that the intractable model will help improve generalization while the tractable model, by leveraging Rao-Blackwellised sampling which combines exact inference and sampling, will help improve the prediction accuracy. To compactly model P(Y|X), we introduce a novel tractable representation called conditional cutset networks (CCNs) in which all conditional probability distributions are represented using calibrated classifiers—classifiers which typically yield higher quality probability estimates than conventional classifiers. We show via a rigorous experimental evaluation that CBNs and CCNs yield more accurate posterior estimates than their tractable as well as intractable counterparts.

We consider the following nearest assignment problem (NAP): given a Bayesian network B and probability value q, find a configuration w of variables in B such that difference between q and the probability of w is minimized. NAP is much harder than conventional inference problems such as finding the most probable explanation and is NP-hard even on independent Bayesian networks (IBNs), which are networks having no edges. Therefore, in order to solve NAP on IBNs, we show how to encode it as a two-way number partitioning problem. This encoding allows us to use greedy poly-time approximation algorithms from the number partitioning literature to yield an algorithm with guarantees for solving NAP on IBNs. We extend this basic algorithm from independent networks to arbitrary probabilistic graphical models by leveraging cutset conditioning and (Rao-Blackwellised) sampling algorithms. We derive approximation and complexity guarantees for our new algorithms and show experimentally that they are quite accurate in practice.

Cutset networks — OR (decision) trees that have Bayesian networks whose treewidth is bounded by one at each leaf — are a new class of tractable probabilistic models that admit fast, polynomial-time inference and learning algorithms. This is unlike other state-of-the-art tractable models such as thin junction trees, arithmetic circuits and sum-product networks in which inference is fast and efficient but learning can be notoriously slow. In this paper, we take advantage of this unique property to develop fast algorithms for learning ensembles of cutset networks. Specifically, we consider generalized additive mixtures of cutset networks and develop sequential boosting-based and parallel bagging-based approaches for learning them from data. We demonstrate, via a thorough experimental evaluation, that our new algorithms are superior to competing approaches in terms of test-set log-likelihood score and learning time.