Online advertising platforms serve as a critical bridge between advertisers and media, requiring precise prediction of user behaviors. Systematic underestimation or overestimation in these predictions can undermine the interests of both parties. Existing calibration methods fall short in addressing two key challenges. First, significant differences in CVR distributions across various targets lead to biased calibration when using global posterior statistics, causing some sample groups to be overestimated while others are underestimated. Second, current field-aware approaches are typically limited to single-field calibration and fail to account for field sensitivity. To overcome these limitations, we propose a Pareto Frontier-based Multi-field Personalized Calibration (PF-MPC) method which formulates multi-field calibration as a multi-objective optimization problem. PF-MPC identifies the optimal Pareto-efficient weight combinations to balance the conflicting calibration errors across different fields. We evaluate PF-MPC on both public calibration benchmark and a large-scale industrial dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements in calibration performance compared to existing approaches.

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for advertisement ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods due to the rapid shift of data distributions and intrinsic model biases. Calibration aims to address this issue by post-processing model predictions, and field-aware calibration can adjust model output on different feature field values to satisfy fine-grained advertising demands. Unfortunately, the observed samples corresponding to certain field values can be seriously limited to make confident calibrations, which may yield bias amplification and online disturbance. In this paper, we propose a confidence-aware multi-field calibration method, which adaptively adjusts the calibration intensity based on confidence levels derived from sample statistics. It also utilizes multiple fields for joint model calibration according to their importance to mitigate the impact of data sparsity on a single field. Extensive offline and online experiments show the superiority of our method in boosting advertising performance and reducing prediction deviations.

Estimating the post-click conversion rate (CVR) accurately in ranking systems is crucial in industrial applications. However, this task is often challenged by data sparsity and selection bias, which hinder accurate ranking. Previous approaches to address these challenges have typically focused on either modeling CVR across the entire exposure space which includes all exposure events, or providing unbiased CVR estimation separately. However, the lack of integration between these objectives has limited the overall performance of CVR estimation. Therefore, there is a pressing need for a method that can simultaneously provide unbiased CVR estimates across the entire exposure space. To achieve it, we formulate the CVR estimation task as an Area Under the Curve (AUC) optimization problem and propose the Entire-space Weighted AUC (EWAUC) framework. EWAUC utilizes sample reweighting techniques to handle selection bias and employs pairwise AUC risk, which incorporates more information from limited clicked data, to handle data sparsity. In order to model CVR across the entire exposure space unbiasedly, EWAUC treats the exposure data as both conversion data and non-conversion data to calculate the loss. The properties of AUC risk guarantee the unbiased nature of the entire space modeling. We provide comprehensive theoretical analysis to validate the unbiased nature of our approach. Additionally, extensive experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of ranking performance for the CVR estimation task.

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction is a fundamental technique for online advertising recommendation and the complex online competitive auction process also brings many difficulties to CTR optimization. Recent studies have shown that introducing posterior auction information contributes to the performance of CTR prediction. However, existing work doesn’t fully capitalize on the benefits of auction information and overlooks the data bias brought by the auction, leading to biased and suboptimal results. To address these limitations, we propose Auction Information Enhanced Framework (AIE) for CTR prediction in online advertising, which delves into the problem of insufficient utilization of auction signals and first reveals the auction bias. Specifically, AIE introduces two pluggable modules, namely Adaptive Market-price Auxiliary Module (AM2) and Bid Calibration Module (BCM), which work collaboratively to excavate the posterior auction signals better and enhance the performance of CTR prediction. Furthermore, the two proposed modules are lightweight, model-agnostic, and friendly to inference latency. Extensive experiments are conducted on a public dataset and an industrial dataset to demonstrate the effectiveness and compatibility of AIE. Besides, a one-month online A/B test in a large-scale advertising platform shows that AIE improves the base model by 5.76% and 2.44% in terms of eCPM and CTR, respectively.

Building appropriate scenarios to meet the personalized demands of different user groups is a common practice. Despite various scenario brings personalized service, it also leads to challenges for the recommendation on multiple scenarios, especially the scenarios with limited traffic. To give desirable recommendation service for all scenarios and reduce the cost of resource consumption, how to leverage the information from multiple scenarios to construct a unified model becomes critical. Unfortunately, the performance of existing multi-scenario recommendation approaches is poor since they introduce unnecessary information from other scenarios to target scenario. In this paper, we show it is possible to selectively utilize the information from different scenarios to construct the scenario-aware estimators in a unified model. Specifically, we first do analysis on multi-scenario modeling with causal graph from the perspective of users and modeling processes, and then propose the Causal Inspired Intervention (CausalInt) framework for multi-scenario recommendation. CausalInt consists of three modules: (1) Invariant Representation Modeling module to squeeze out the scenario-aware information through disentangled representation learning and obtain a scenario-invariant representation; (2) Negative Effects Mitigating module to resolve conflicts between different scenarios and conflicts between scenario-specific and scenario-invariant representations via gradient based orthogonal regularization and model-agnostic meta learning, respectively; (3) Inter-Scenario Transferring module designs a novel TransNet to simulate a counterfactual intervention and effectively fuse the information from other scenarios. Offline experiments over two real-world dataset and online A/B test are conducted to demonstrate the superiority of CausalInt.

Effectively modeling feature interactions is crucial for CTR prediction in industrial recommender systems. The state-of-the-art deep CTR models with parallel structure (e.g., DCN) learn explicit and implicit feature interactions through independent parallel networks. However, these models suffer from trivial sharing issues, namely insufficient sharing in hidden layers and excessive sharing in network input, limiting the model's expressiveness and effectiveness. Therefore, to enhance information sharing between explicit and implicit feature interactions, we propose a novel deep CTR model EDCN. EDCN introduces two advanced modules, namely bridge module and regulation module, which work collaboratively to capture the layer-wise interactive signals and learn discriminative feature distributions for each hidden layer of the parallel networks. Furthermore, two modules are lightweight and model-agnostic, which can be generalized well to mainstream parallel deep CTR models. Extensive experiments and studies are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of EDCN on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. Moreover, the compatibility of two modules over various parallel-structured models is verified, and they have been deployed onto the online advertising platform in Huawei, where a one-month A/B test demonstrates the improvement over the base parallel-structured model by 7.30% and 4.85% in terms of CTR and eCPM, respectively.