Modern platforms leverage randomized experiments to make informed decisions from a given set of alternatives. As a particularly challenging scenario, these alternatives can potentially have (i) high volume, with thousands of new items being released each hour, and (ii) short lifetime, either due to the contents' transient nature, or some underlying non-stationarity that impels the learner to treat the same item as non-identical copies across time. We consider a multiplay bandits model. In each round a set of $k=n^\rho$ actions that will be available for $w$ rounds arrives, each of whose mean reward is drawn from a fixed known distribution. The learner selects a multiset of $n$ actions at a time. We propose an $\ell$-Layered Sieve Policy that recursively refines the action space for $\ell\leq w$ times. We show that for any given $\rho>0$, with suitable $\ell$, the policy achieves $\tilde O (n^{-\min \{\rho, \frac 12 (1+\frac 1w)^{-1}\}})$ regret. We also complement this result with an $\Omega (n^{-\min \{\rho, \frac 12\}})$ lower bound. We further validate the effectiveness of our Sieve Policy via numerical simulations and a field experiment in a large content card serving platform.

The problem of low-rank matrix completion with heterogeneous and sub-exponential (as opposed to homogeneous Gaussian) noise is particularly relevant to a number of applications in modern commerce. Examples include panel sales data and data collected from web-commerce systems such as recommendation engines. An important unresolved question for this problem is characterizing the distribution of estimated matrix entries under common low-rank estimators. Such a characterization is essential to any application that requires quantification of uncertainty in these estimates and has heretofore only been available under the assumption of homogenous Gaussian noise. Here we characterize the distribution of estimated matrix entries when the observation noise is heterogeneous sub-Exponential and provide, as an application, explicit formulas for this distribution when observed entries are Poisson or Binary distributed.

We consider experiments in dynamical systems where interventions on some experimental units impact other units through a limiting constraint (such as a limited supply of products). Despite outsize practical importance, the best estimators for this `Markovian' interference problem are largely heuristic in nature, and their bias is not well understood. We formalize the problem of inference in such experiments as one of policy evaluation. Off-policy estimators, while unbiased, apparently incur a large penalty in variance relative to state-of-the-art heuristics. We introduce an on-policy estimator: the Differences-In-Q's (DQ) estimator. We show that the DQ estimator can in general have exponentially smaller variance than off-policy evaluation. At the same time, its bias is second order in the impact of the intervention. This yields a striking bias-variance tradeoff so that the DQ estimator effectively dominates state-of-the-art alternatives. From a theoretical perspective, we introduce three separate novel techniques that are of independent interest in the theory of Reinforcement Learning (RL). Our empirical evaluation includes a set of experiments on a city-scale ride-hailing simulator.

We consider the Continuum Bandit problem where the goal is to find the optimal action under an unknown reward function, with an additional monotonicity constraint (or, "markdown" constraint) that requires that the action sequence be non-increasing. This problem faithfully models a natural single-product dynamic pricing problem, called "markdown pricing", where the objective is to adaptively reduce the price over a finite sales horizon to maximize expected revenues. Jia et al '21 and Chen '21 independently showed a tight $T^{3/4}$ regret bound over $T$ rounds under *minimal* assumptions of unimodality and Lipschitzness in the reward (or, "revenue") function. This bound shows that the demand learning in markdown pricing is harder than unconstrained (i.e., without the monotonicity constraint) pricing under unknown demand which suffers regret only of the order of $T^{2/3}$ under the same assumptions (Kleinberg '04). However, in practice the demand functions are usually assumed to have certain functional forms (e.g. linear or exponential), rendering the demand-learning easier and suggesting lower regret bounds. We investigate two fundamental questions, assuming the underlying demand curve comes from a given parametric family: (1) Can we improve the $T^{3/4}$ regret bound for markdown pricing, under extra assumptions on the functional forms of the demand functions? (2) Is markdown pricing still harder than unconstrained pricing, under these additional assumptions? To answer these, we introduce a concept called markdown dimension that measures the complexity of the parametric family and present tight regret bounds under this framework, thereby completely settling the aforementioned questions.

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data; (b) run a clinical trial; or (c) elucidate further properties of the causal graph that might render the ATE identifiable. In this paper, we consider the benefit of incorporating a large confounded observational dataset (confounder unobserved) alongside a small deconfounded observational dataset (confounder revealed) when estimating the ATE. Our theoretical results suggest that the inclusion of confounded data can significantly reduce the quantity of deconfounded data required to estimate the ATE to within a desired accuracy level. Moreover, in some cases—say, genetics—we could imagine retrospectively selecting samples to deconfound. We demonstrate that by actively selecting these samples based upon the (already observed) treatment and outcome, we can reduce sample complexity further. Our theoretical and empirical results establish that the worst-case relative performance of our approach (vs. a natural benchmark) is bounded while our best-case gains are unbounded. Finally, we demonstrate the benefits of selective deconfounding using a large real-world dataset related to genetic mutation in cancer.

We study the problem of identifying anomalies in a low-rank matrix observed with sub-exponential noise, motivated by applications in retail and inventory management. State of the art approaches to anomaly detection in low-rank matrices apparently fall short, since they require that non-anomalous entries be observed with vanishingly small noise (which is not the case in our problem, and indeed in many applications). So motivated, we propose a conceptually simple entrywise approach to anomaly detection in low-rank matrices. Our approach accommodates a general class of probabilistic anomaly models. We extend recent work on entrywise error guarantees for matrix completion, establishing such guarantees for sub-exponential matrices, where in addition to missing entries, a fraction of entries are corrupted by (an also unknown) anomaly model. Viewing the anomaly detection as a classification task, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to achieve the min-max optimal detection rate (up to log factors). Using data from a massive consumer goods retailer, we show that our approach provides significant improvements over incumbent approaches to anomaly detection.

The problem of causal inference with panel data is a central econometric question. The following is a fundamental version of this problem: Let $M^*$ be a low rank matrix and $E$ be a zero-mean noise matrix. For a `treatment' matrix $Z$ with entries in $\{0,1\}$ we observe the matrix $O$ with entries $O_{ij} := M^*_{ij} + E_{ij} + \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij}$ where $\mathcal{T}_{ij} $ are unknown, heterogenous treatment effects. The problem requires we estimate the average treatment effect $\tau^* := \sum_{ij} \mathcal{T}_{ij} Z_{ij} / \sum_{ij} Z_{ij}$. The synthetic control paradigm provides an approach to estimating $\tau^*$ when $Z$ places support on a single row. This paper extends that framework to allow rate-optimal recovery of $\tau^*$ for general $Z$, thus broadly expanding its applicability. Our guarantees are the first of their type in this general setting. Computational experiments on synthetic and real-world data show a substantial advantage over competing estimators.

In the problem of \emph{active sequential hypothesis testing} (ASHT), a learner seeks to identify the \emph{true} hypothesis from among a known set of hypotheses. The learner is given a set of actions and knows the random distribution of the outcome of any action under any true hypothesis. Given a target error $\delta>0$, the goal is to sequentially select the fewest number of actions so as to identify the true hypothesis with probability at least $1 - \delta$. Motivated by applications in which the number of hypotheses or actions is massive (e.g., genomics-based cancer detection), we propose efficient (greedy, in fact) algorithms and provide the first approximation guarantees for ASHT, under two types of adaptivity. Both of our guarantees are independent of the number of actions and logarithmic in the number of hypotheses. We numerically evaluate the performance of our algorithms using both synthetic and real-world DNA mutation data, demonstrating that our algorithms outperform previously proposed heuristic policies by large margins.

Personalization and recommendations are now accepted as core competencies in just about every online setting, ranging from media platforms to e-commerce to social networks. While the challenge of estimating user preferences has garnered significant attention, the operational problem of using such preferences to construct personalized offer sets to users is largely still open, particularly in modern settings where a massive number of items and a millisecond response time requirement mean that even enumerating all of the items is impossible. Faced with such settings, existing techniques are either (a) entirely heuristic with no principled justification, or (b) theoretically sound, but simply too slow to work.

We consider the problem of large scale matrix recovery given side information in the form of additional matrices of conforming dimension. This is a parsimonious model that captures a number of interesting problems including context and location aware recommendations, personalized ‘tag’ learning, demand learning with side information, etc. Viewing the matrix we seek to recover and the side information we have as slices of a tensor, we consider the problem of Slice Recovery, which is to recover specific slices of a tensor from noisy observations of the tensor. We provide an efficient algorithm to recover slices of structurally ’simple’ tensors given noisy observations of the tensor’s entries; our definition of simplicity subsumes low-rank tensors for a variety of definitions of tensor rank. Our algorithm is practical for large datasets and provides a significant performance improvement over state of the art incumbent approaches to tensor recovery. We establish theoretical recovery guarantees that under reasonable assumptions are minimax optimal for slice recovery. These guarantees also imply the first minimax optimal guarantees for recovering tensors of low Tucker rank and general noise. Experiments on data from a music streaming service demonstrate the performance and scalability of our algorithm.