This work examines risk bounds for nonparametric distributional regression estimators. For convex-constrained distributional regression, general upper bounds are established for the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and the worst-case mean squared error (MSE) across the domain. These theoretical results are applied to isotonic and trend filtering distributional regression, yielding convergence rates consistent with those for mean estimation. Furthermore, a general upper bound is derived for distributional regression under non-convex constraints, with a specific application to neural network-based estimators. Comprehensive experiments on both simulated and real data validate the theoretical contributions, demonstrating their practical effectiveness.

We consider the problem of estimating piecewise regular functions in an online setting, i.e., the data arrive sequentially and at any round our task is to predict the value of the true function at the next revealed point using the available data from past predictions. We propose a suitably modified version of a recently developed online learning algorithm called the sleeping experts aggregation algorithm. We show that this estimator satisfies oracle risk bounds simultaneously for all local regions of the domain. As concrete instantiations of the expert aggregation algorithm proposed here, we study an online mean aggregation and an online linear regression aggregation algorithm where experts correspond to the set of dyadic subrectangles of the domain. The resulting algorithms are near linear time computable in the sample size. We specifically focus on the performance of these online algorithms in the context of estimating piecewise polynomial and bounded variation function classes in the fixed design setup. The simultaneous oracle risk bounds we obtain for these estimators in this context provide new and improved (in certain aspects) guarantees even in the batch setting and are not available for the state of the art batch learning estimators.

2D Total Variation Denoising (TVD) is a widely used technique for image denoising. It is also an important nonparametric regression method for estimating functions with heterogenous smoothness. Recent results have shown the TVD estimator to be nearly minimax rate optimal for the class of functions with bounded variation. In this paper, we complement these worst case guarantees by investigating the adaptivity of the TVD estimator to functions which are piecewise constant on axis aligned rectangles. We rigorously show that, when the truth is piecewise constant with few pieces, the ideally tuned TVD estimator performs better than in the worst case. We also study the issue of choosing the tuning parameter. In particular, we propose a fully data driven version of the TVD estimator which enjoys similar worst case risk guarantees as the ideally tuned TVD estimator.

We consider the problem of estimating the probability matrix governing a tournament or linkage in graphs from incomplete observations under the assumption that the probability matrix satisfies natural monotonicity constraints after being permuted in both rows and columns by some latent permutation. We propose a natural estimator which bypasses the need to search over all possible latent permutations and hence is computationally tractable. We then derive asymptotic risk bounds for our estimator. Pertinently, we demonstrate an automatic adaptation property of our estimator for several sub classes of our parameter space which are of natural interest, including generalizations of the popular Bradley-Terry model in the tournament case, the $\beta $ model and stochastic block model in the graph case, and Hölder continuous matrices in the tournament and graph settings.

Two methods are proposed for high-dimensional shape-constrained regression and classification. These methods reshape pre-trained prediction rules to satisfy shape constraints like monotonicity and convexity. The first method can be applied to any pre-trained prediction rule, while the second method deals specifically with random forests. In both cases, efficient algorithms are developed for computing the estimators, and experiments are performed to demonstrate their performance on four datasets. We find that reshaping methods enforce shape constraints without compromising predictive accuracy.

We study the estimation of flows on trees, a structured generalization of isotonic regression. A tree flow is defined recursively as a positive flow value into a node that is partitioned into an outgoing flow to the children nodes, with some amount of the flow possibly leaking outside. We study the behavior of the least squares estimator for flows, and the associated minimax lower bounds. We characterize the risk of the least squares estimator in two regimes. In the first regime, the diameter of the tree grows at most logarithmically with the number of nodes. In the second regime, the tree contains many long paths. The results are compared with known risk bounds for isotonic regression. In the many long paths regime, we find that the least squares estimator is not minimax rate optimal for flow estimation.

We extend the traditional worst-case, minimax analysis of stochastic convex optimization by introducing a localized form of minimax complexity for individual functions. Our main result gives function-specific lower and upper bounds on the number of stochastic subgradient evaluations needed to optimize either the function or its ``hardest local alternative'' to a given numerical precision. The bounds are expressed in terms of a localized and computational analogue of the modulus of continuity that is central to statistical minimax analysis. We show how the computational modulus of continuity can be explicitly calculated in concrete cases, and relates to the curvature of the function at the optimum. We also prove a superefficiency result that demonstrates it is a meaningful benchmark, acting as a computational analogue of the Fisher information in statistical estimation. The nature and practical implications of the results are demonstrated in simulations.

Building upon past work, which developed information theoretic notions of when a penalized likelihood procedure can be interpreted as codelengths arising from a two stage code and when the statistical risk of the procedure has a redundancy risk bound, we present new results and risk bounds showing that the l1penalty in Gaussian Graphical Models fits the above story. We also show how the traditional l0penalty times plus lower order terms which stay bounded on the whole parameter space has a conditional two stage description length interpretation.