An important problem in time-series analysis is modeling systems with time-varying dynamics. Probabilistic models with joint continuous and discrete latent states offer interpretable, efficient, and experimentally useful descriptions of such data. Commonly used models include autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (SLDSs), each with its own advantages and disadvantages. ARHMMs permit exact inference and easy parameter estimation, but are parameter intensive when modeling long dependencies, and hence are prone to overfitting. In contrast, SLDSs can capture long-range dependencies in a parameter efficient way through Markovian latent dynamics, but present an intractable likelihood and a challenging parameter estimation task. In this paper, we propose _switching autoregressive low-rank tensor_ SALT models, which retain the advantages of both approaches while ameliorating the weaknesses. SALT parameterizes the tensor of an ARHMM with a low-rank factorization to control the number of parameters and allow longer range dependencies without overfitting. We prove theoretical and discuss practical connections between SALT, linear dynamical systems, and SLDSs. We empirically demonstrate quantitative advantages of SALT models on a range of simulated and real prediction tasks, including behavioral and neural datasets. Furthermore, the learned low-rank tensor provides novel insights into temporal dependencies within each discrete state.

Decoding behavior, perception or cognitive state directly from neural signals is critical for brain-computer interface research and an important tool for systems neuroscience. In the last decade, deep learning has become the state-of-the-art method in many machine learning tasks ranging from speech recognition to image segmentation. The success of deep networks in other domains has led to a new wave of applications in neuroscience. In this article, we review deep learning approaches to neural decoding. We describe the architectures used for extracting useful features from neural recording modalities ranging from spikes to functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, we explore how deep learning has been leveraged to predict common outputs including movement, speech and vision, with a focus on how pretrained deep networks can be incorporated as priors for complex decoding targets like acoustic speech or images. Deep learning has been shown to be a useful tool for improving the accuracy and flexibility of neural decoding across a wide range of tasks, and we point out areas for future scientific development.

Modern recording techniques can generate large-scale measurements of multiple neural populations over extended time periods. However, it remains a challenge to model non-stationary interactions between high-dimensional populations of neurons. To tackle this challenge, we develop recurrent switching linear dynamical systems models for multiple populations. Here, each high-dimensional neural population is represented by a unique set of latent variables, which evolve dynamically in time. Populations interact with each other through this low-dimensional space. We allow the nature of these interactions to change over time by using a discrete set of dynamical states. Additionally, we parameterize these discrete state transition rules to capture which neural populations are responsible for switching between interaction states. To fit the model, we use variational expectation-maximization with a structured mean-field approximation. After validating the model on simulations, we apply it to two different neural datasets: spiking activity from motor areas in a non-human primate, and calcium imaging from neurons in the nematode \textit{C. elegans}. In both datasets, the model reveals behaviorally-relevant discrete states with unique inter-population interactions and different populations that predict transitioning between these states.

A molecular device that records time-varying signals would enable new approaches in neuroscience. We have recently proposed such a device, termed a "molecular ticker tape", in which an engineered DNA polymerase (DNAP) writes time-varying signals into DNA in the form of nucleotide misincorporation patterns. Here, we define a theoretical framework quantifying the expected capabilities of molecular ticker tapes as a function of experimental parameters. We present a decoding algorithm for estimating time-dependent input signals, and DNAP kinetic parameters, directly from misincorporation rates as determined by sequencing. We explore the requirements for accurate signal decoding, particularly the constraints on (1) the polymerase biochemical parameters, and (2) the amplitude, temporal resolution, and duration of the time-varying input signals. Our results suggest that molecular recording devices with kinetic properties similar to natural polymerases could be used to perform experiments in which neural activity is compared across several experimental conditions, and that devices engineered by combining favorable biochemical properties from multiple known polymerases could potentially measure faster phenomena such as slow synchronization of neuronal oscillations. Sophisticated engineering of DNAPs is likely required to achieve molecular recording of neuronal activity with single-spike temporal resolution over experimentally relevant timescales.