KV cache compression promises increased throughput and efficiency with negligible loss in performance.While the gains in throughput are indisputable and recent literature has indeed shown minimal degradation on particular benchmarks, in general the consequences of compression in realistic scenarios such as multiinstruction prompting have been insufficiently studied.In this paper, we identify several pitfalls that practitioners should be aware of when deploying KV cache compressed LLMs.We evaluate five KV cache compression methods (StreamingLLM, SnapKV, TOVA, H2O, and K-Norm) on Llama3 8B and Qwen2.5 14B under multi-instruction prompting with IFEval.Importantly, we show that certain instructions degrade much more rapidly with compression, effectively causing them to be completely ignored by the LLM.As a practical example, we highlight system prompt leakage as a case study, empirically demonstrating the impact of compression on leakage and general instruction-following.We identify several factors that contribute to system prompt leakage: compression method, instruction order, and KV eviction bias.We then propose simple changes to KV cache eviction policies that can reduce the impact of these factors and improve the overall performance in multi-instruction tasks.alexluchen/pitfalls-of-kv-cache-compression

During inference for transformer-based large language models (LLM), prefilling is the computation of the key-value (KV) cache for input tokens in the prompt prior to autoregressive generation. For longer input prompt lengths, prefilling will incur a significant overhead on decoding time. In this work, we highlight the following pitfall of prefilling: for batches containing high-varying prompt lengths, significant computation is wasted by the standard practice of padding sequences to the maximum length. As LLMs increasingly support longer context lengths, potentially up to 10 million tokens, variations in prompt lengths within a batch become more pronounced. To address this, we propose prepacking, a simple yet effective method to optimize prefilling computation. To avoid redundant computation on pad tokens, prepacking combines prompts of varying lengths into a sequence and packs multiple sequences into a compact batch using a bin-packing algorithm. It then modifies the attention mask and positional encoding to compute multiple prefilled KV-caches for multiple prompts within a single sequence. On standard curated dataset containing prompts with varying lengths, we obtain a significant speed and memory efficiency improvements as compared to the default padding-based prefilling computation within Huggingface across a range of base model configurations and inference serving scenarios.

We introduce OmniFlow, a novel generative model designed for any-to-any generation tasks such as text-to-image, text-to-audio, and audio-to-image synthesis. OmniFlow advances the rectified flow (RF) framework used in text-to-image models to handle the joint distribution of multiple modalities. It outperforms previous any-to-any models on a wide range of tasks, such as text-to-image and text-to-audio synthesis. Our work offers three key contributions: First, we extend RF to a multi-modal setting and introduce a novel guidance mechanism, enabling users to flexibly control the alignment between different modalities in the generated outputs. Second, we propose a novel architecture that extends the text-to-image MMDiT architecture of Stable Diffusion 3 and enables audio and text generation. The extended modules can be efficiently pretrained individually and merged with the vanilla text-to-image MMDiT for fine-tuning. Lastly, we conduct a comprehensive study of the design choices of rectified flow transformers for large-scale audio and text generation, providing valuable insights into optimizing performance across various modalities. Code is available at https://github.com/jacklishufan/OmniFlows.

Recent advances in internet-scale video data pretraining have led to the development of text-to-video generative models that can create high-quality videos across a broad range of visual concepts, synthesize realistic motions and render complex objects. Hence, these generative models have the potential to become general-purpose simulators of the physical world. However, it is unclear how far we are from this goal with the existing text-to-video generative models. To this end, we present VideoPhy, a benchmark designed to assess whether the generated videos follow physical commonsense for real-world activities (e.g. marbles will roll down when placed on a slanted surface). Specifically, we curate diverse prompts that involve interactions between various material types in the physical world (e.g., solid-solid, solid-fluid, fluid-fluid). We then generate videos conditioned on these captions from diverse state-of-the-art text-to-video generative models, including open models (e.g., CogVideoX) and closed models (e.g., Lumiere, Dream Machine). Our human evaluation reveals that the existing models severely lack the ability to generate videos adhering to the given text prompts, while also lack physical commonsense. Specifically, the best performing model, CogVideoX-5B, generates videos that adhere to the caption and physical laws for 39.6% of the instances. VideoPhy thus highlights that the video generative models are far from accurately simulating the physical world. Finally, we propose an auto-evaluator, VideoCon-Physics, to assess the performance reliably for the newly released models. The code is available here: https://github.com/Hritikbansal/videophy.

Optimizing black-box functions is a fundamental problem in science and engineering. To solve this problem, many approaches learn a surrogate function that estimates the underlying objective from limited historical evaluations. Large Language Models (LLMs), with their strong pattern-matching capabilities via pretraining on vast amounts of data, stand out as a potential candidate for surrogate modeling. However, directly prompting a pretrained language model to produce predictions is not feasible in many scientific domains due to the scarcity of domain-specific data in the pretraining corpora and the challenges of articulating complex problems in natural language. In this work, we introduce LICO, a general-purpose model that extends arbitrary base LLMs for black-box optimization, with a particular application to the molecular domain. To achieve this, we equip the language model with a separate embedding layer and prediction layer, and train the model to perform in-context predictions on a diverse set of functions defined over the domain. Once trained, LICO can generalize to unseen molecule properties simply via in-context prompting. LICO performs competitively on PMO, a challenging molecular optimization benchmark comprising 23 objective functions, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on its low-budget version PMO-1K.

Recent advancements in mixed-modal generative have opened new avenues for developing unified biomedical assistants capable of analyzing biomedical images, answering complex questions about them, and generating multimodal patient reports. However, existing datasets face challenges such as small sizes, limited coverage of biomedical tasks and domains, and a reliance on narrow sources. To address these gaps, we present MedMax, a large-scale multimodal biomedical instruction-tuning dataset for mixed-modal foundation models. With 1.47 million instances, MedMax encompasses a diverse range of tasks, including interleaved image-text generation, biomedical image captioning and generation, visual chat, and report understanding. These tasks span knowledge across diverse biomedical domains, including radiology and histopathology, grounded in medical papers and YouTube videos. Subsequently, we fine-tune a mixed-modal foundation model on the MedMax dataset, achieving significant performance improvements: a 26% gain over the Chameleon model and an 18.3% improvement over GPT-4o across 12 downstream biomedical visual question-answering tasks. Finally, we introduce a unified evaluation suite for biomedical tasks to guide the development of mixed-modal biomedical AI assistants. We release the code, data, and model at https://mint-medmax.github.io/.

The generation speed of LLMs are bottlenecked by autoregressive decoding, where tokens are predicted sequentially one by one. Alternatively, diffusion large language models (dLLMs) theoretically allow for parallel token generation, but in practice struggle to achieve the speed of autoregressive models without significantly sacrificing quality. We therefore introduce adaptive parallel decoding (APD), a novel method that dynamically adjusts the number of tokens sampled in parallel. We achieve this by defining a multiplicative mixture between the dLLM marginal probabilities and the joint probability of sequences under a small auxiliary autoregressive model. This inverts the standard setup of speculative decoding, where the goal is to sample from a large autoregressive verifier by drafting from a smaller model. We further optimize APD by enabling KV caching and limiting the size of the masked input. Altogether, our method puts forward three tunable parameters to flexibly tradeoff throughput and quality. We show that APD provides markedly higher throughput with minimal quality degradations on downstream benchmarks.

Modern Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can solve a wide range of tasks requiring visual reasoning. In real-world scenarios, desirable properties for VLMs include fast inference and controllable generation (e.g., constraining outputs to adhere to a desired format). However, existing autoregressive (AR) VLMs like LLaVA struggle in these aspects. Discrete diffusion models (DMs) offer a promising alternative, enabling parallel decoding for faster inference and bidirectional context for controllable generation through text-infilling. While effective in language-only settings, DMs' potential for multimodal tasks is underexplored. We introduce LaViDa, a family of VLMs built on DMs. We build LaViDa by equipping DMs with a vision encoder and jointly fine-tune the combined parts for multimodal instruction following. To address challenges encountered, LaViDa incorporates novel techniques such as complementary masking for effective training, prefix KV cache for efficient inference, and timestep shifting for high-quality sampling. Experiments show that LaViDa achieves competitive or superior performance to AR VLMs on multi-modal benchmarks such as MMMU, while offering unique advantages of DMs, including flexible speed-quality tradeoff, controllability, and bidirectional reasoning. On COCO captioning, LaViDa surpasses Open-LLaVa-Next-8B by +4.1 CIDEr with 1.92x speedup. On bidirectional tasks, it achieves +59% improvement on Constrained Poem Completion. These results demonstrate LaViDa as a strong alternative to AR VLMs. Code and models is available at https://github.com/jacklishufan/LaViDa

Accurate weather forecasting across time scales is critical for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recent data-driven methods based on deep learning have achieved significant success in the medium range, but struggle at longer subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) horizons due to error accumulation in their autoregressive approach. In this work, we propose OmniCast, a scalable and skillful probabilistic model that unifies weather forecasting across timescales. OmniCast consists of two components: a VAE model that encodes raw weather data into a continuous, lower-dimensional latent space, and a diffusion-based transformer model that generates a sequence of future latent tokens given the initial conditioning tokens. During training, we mask random future tokens and train the transformer to estimate their distribution given conditioning and visible tokens using a per-token diffusion head. During inference, the transformer generates the full sequence of future tokens by iteratively unmasking random subsets of tokens. This joint sampling across space and time mitigates compounding errors from autoregressive approaches. The low-dimensional latent space enables modeling long sequences of future latent states, allowing the transformer to learn weather dynamics beyond initial conditions. OmniCast performs competitively with leading probabilistic methods at the medium-range timescale while being 10× to 20× faster, and achieves state-of-the-art performance at the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale across accuracy, physics-based, and probabilistic metrics. Furthermore, we demonstrate that OmniCast can generate stable rollouts up to 100 years ahead. Code and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/omnicast.

Recent large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities that benefits from online reinforcement learning (RL). These capabilities have primarily been demonstrated within the left-to-right autoregressive (AR) generation paradigm. In contrast, non-autoregressive paradigms based on diffusion generate text in a coarse-to-fine manner. Although recent diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs) have achieved competitive language modeling performance compared to their AR counterparts, it remains unclear if dLLMs can also leverage recent advances in LLM reasoning. To this end, we propose, a framework to adapt pre-trained masked dLLMs into reasoning models via a combination of supervised finetuning (SFT) and RL. Specifically, we develop and extend techniques to improve reasoning in pretrained dLLMs: (a) we utilize a masked SFT technique to distill knowledge and instill self-improvement behavior directly from existing datasets, and (b) we introduce a novel critic-free, policy-gradient based RL algorithm called diffu-GRPO, the first integration of policy gradient methods to masked dLLMs. Through empirical studies, we investigate the performance of different post-training recipes on multiple mathematical and planning benchmarks. We find that d1 yields the best performance and significantly improves performance of a state-of-the-art dLLM.

Despite being (pre)trained on a massive amount of data, state-of-the-art video-language alignment models are not robust to semantically-plausible contrastive changes in the video captions. Our work addresses this by identifying a broad spectrum of contrast misalignments, such as re-placing entities, actions, and flipping event order, which alignment models should be robust against. To this end, we introduce the VideoCon, a video-language alignment dataset constructed by a large language model that gen-erates plausible contrast video captions and explanations for differences between original and contrast video captions. Then, a generative video-language model is fine-tuned with VideoCon to assess video-language entailment and generate explanations. Our VideoCon-based alignment model significantly outperforms current models. It exhibits a 12-point increase in AUC for the video-language alignment task on human-generated contrast captions. Finally, our model sets new state of the art zero-shot performance in temporally-extensive video-language tasks such as text-to-video retrieval (SSv2-Temporal) and video question answering (ATP-Hard). Moreover, our model shows superior performance on novel videos and human-crafted captions and explanations.

Aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values and intents critically involves the use of human or AI feedback. While dense feedback annotations are expensive to acquire and integrate, sparse feedback presents a structural design choice between ratings (e.g., score Response A on a scale of 1-7) and rankings (e.g., is Response A better than Response B?). In this work, we analyze the effect of this design choice for the alignment and evaluation of LLMs. We uncover an inconsistency problem wherein the preferences inferred from ratings and rankings significantly disagree 60% for both human and AI annotators. Our subsequent analysis identifies various facets of annotator biases that explain this phenomena such as human annotators would rate denser responses higher while preferring accuracy during pairwise judgments, for a particular comparison instance. To our surprise, we observe that the choice of feedback protocol has a significant effect on the evaluation of aligned LLMs. In particular, we find that LLMs that leverage rankings data for alignment (say model X) are preferred over those that leverage ratings data (say model Y), with a rank-based evaluation protocol (is X/Y's response better than reference response?) but not with a rating-based evaluation protocol (score Rank X/Y's response on a scale of 1-7). Our findings thus shed light on critical gaps in methods for evaluating the real-world utility of language models and their strong dependence on the feedback protocol used for alignment. Our code and data are available at \url{https://github.com/Hritikbansal/sparse_feedback}.

Many applications of large language models (LLMs), ranging from chatbots to creative writing, require nuanced subjective judgments that can differ significantly across different groups. Existing alignment algorithms can be expensive to align for each group, requiring prohibitive amounts of group-specific preference data and computation for real-world use cases. We introduce Group Preference Optimization (GPO), an alignment framework that steers language models to preferences of individual groups in a few-shot manner. In GPO, we augment the base LLM with an independent transformer module trained to predict the preferences of a group for the LLM generations. For few-shot learning, we parameterize this module as an in-context autoregressive transformer and train it via meta-learning on several groups. We empirically validate the efficacy of GPO through rigorous evaluations using LLMs with varied sizes on three human opinion adaptation tasks. These tasks involve adapting to the preferences of US demographic groups, global countries, and individual users. Our results demonstrate that GPO not only aligns models more accurately but also requires fewer group-specific preferences and less training and inference computing resources, outperforming existing strategies such as in-context steering and fine-tuning methods.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer’s favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

In-context learning is an emergent paradigm in large language models (LLMs) that enables them to generalize to new tasks and domains by simply prompting these models with a few exemplars without explicit parameter updates. Many attempts have been made to understand in-context learning in LLMs as a function of model scale, pretraining data, and other factors. In this work, we propose a new mechanism to probe and understand in-context learning from the lens of decision boundaries for in-context binary classification. Decision boundaries are straightforward to visualize and provide important information about the qualitative behavior of the inductive biases of standard classifiers. To our surprise, we find that the decision boundaries learned by current LLMs in simple binary classification tasks are often irregularly non-smooth, regardless of task linearity. This paper investigates the factors influencing these decision boundaries and explores methods to enhance their generalizability. We assess various approaches, including training-free and fine-tuning methods for LLMs, the impact of model architecture, and the effectiveness of active prompting techniques for smoothing decision boundaries in a data-efficient manner. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of in-context learning dynamics and offer practical improvements for enhancing robustness and generalizability of in-context learning.

In the fields of natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), recent advances in generative modeling have led to powerful machine learning systems that can effectively learn from large labeled and unlabeled datasets. These systems, by and large, apply a uniform pretrain-finetune pipeline on sequential data streams and have achieved state-of-the-art-performance across many tasks and benchmarks. In this talk, we will present recent algorithms that extend this paradigm to sequential decision making, by casting it as an inverse problem that can be solved via deep generative models. These generative approaches are stable to train, provide a flexible interface for single- and multi-task inference, and generalize exceedingly well outside their training datasets. We instantiate these algorithms in the context of reinforcement learning and black-box optimization. Empirically, we demonstrate that these approaches perform exceedingly well on high-dimensional benchmarks outperforming the current state-of-the-art approaches based on forward models.

Multimodal contrastive pretraining has been used to train multimodal representation models, such as CLIP, on large amounts of paired image-text data. However, previous studies have revealed that such models are vulnerable to backdoor attacks. Specifically, when trained on backdoored examples, CLIP learns spurious correlations between the embedded backdoor trigger and the target label, aligning their representations in the joint embedding space. Injecting even a small number of poisoned examples, such as 75 examples in 3 million pretraining data, can significantly manipulate the model’s behavior, making it difficult to detect or unlearn such correlations. To address this issue, we propose CleanCLIP, a finetuning framework that weakens the learned spurious associations introduced by backdoor attacks by independently re-aligning the representations for individual modalities. We demonstrate that unsupervised finetuning using a combination of multimodal contrastive and unimodal self-supervised objectives for individual modalities can significantly reduce the impact of the backdoor attack. Additionally, we show that supervised finetuning on task-specific labeled image data removes the backdoor trigger from the CLIP vision encoder. We show empirically that CleanCLIP maintains model performance on benign examples while erasing a range of backdoor attacks on multimodal contrastive learning. Code and pretrained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/nishadsinghi/CleanCLIP.

The goal of offline black-box optimization (BBO) is to optimize an expensive black-box function using a fixed dataset of function evaluations. Prior works consider forward approaches that learn surrogates to the black-box function and inverse approaches that directly map function values to corresponding points in the input domain of the black-box function. These approaches are limited by the quality of the offline dataset and the difficulty in learning one-to-many mappings in high dimensions, respectively. We propose Denoising Diffusion Optimization Models (DDOM), a new inverse approach for offline black-box optimization based on diffusion models. Given an offline dataset, DDOM learns a conditional generative model over the domain of the black-box function conditioned on the function values. We investigate several design choices in DDOM, such as reweighting the dataset to focus on high function values and the use of classifier-free guidance at test-time to enable generalization to function values that can even exceed the dataset maxima. Empirically, we conduct experiments on the Design-Bench benchmark (Trabucco et al., 2022) and show that DDOM achieves results competitive with state-of-the-art baselines.

Many problems in science and engineering involve optimizing an expensive black-box function over a high-dimensional space. In the offline model-based optimization (MBO) setting, we assume access to a fixed, offline dataset for pretraining and a small budget for online function evaluations. Prior approaches seek to utilize the offline data to approximate the function or its inverse but are not sufficiently accurate far from the data distribution. We propose BONET, a generative framework for pretraining a novel model-based optimizer using offline datasets. In BONET, we train an autoregressive model on fixed-length trajectories derived from an offline dataset. We design a sampling strategy to synthesize trajectories from offline data using a simple heuristic of rolling out monotonic transitions from low-fidelity to high-fidelity samples. Empirically, we instantiate BONET using a causally masked Transformer (Radford et al., 2019) and evaluate it on Design-Bench (Trabucco et al., 2022), where we rank the best on average, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines.

Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of currently used computationally intensive physics-informed numerical models for weather and climate modeling. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute and data while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pretrained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pretrained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets. Our source code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/ClimaX.

Natural agents can effectively learn from multiple data sources that differ in size, quality, and types of measurements. We study this heterogeneity in the context of offline reinforcement learning (RL) by introducing a new, practically motivated semi-supervised setting. Here, an agent has access to two sets of trajectories: labelled trajectories containing state, action and reward triplets at every timestep, along with unlabelled trajectories that contain only state and reward information. For this setting, we develop and study a simple meta-algorithmic pipeline that learns an inverse dynamics model on the labelled data to obtain proxy-labels for the unlabelled data, followed by the use of any offline RL algorithm on the true and proxy-labelled trajectories. Empirically, we find this simple pipeline to be highly successful — on several D4RL benchmarks (Fu et al., 2020), certain offline RL algorithms can match the performance of variants trained on a fully labelled dataset even when we label only 10% of trajectories which are highly suboptimal. To strengthen our understanding, we perform a large-scale controlled empirical study investigating the interplay of data-centric properties of the labelled and unlabelled datasets, with algorithmic design choices (e.g., choice of inverse dynamics, offline RL algorithm) to identify general trends and best practices for training RL agents on semi-supervised offline datasets.

Experimental design is a fundamental problem in many science and engineering fields. In this problem, sample efficiency is crucial due to the time, money, and safety costs of real-world design evaluations. Existing approaches either rely on active data collection or access to large, labeled datasets of past experiments, making them impractical in many real-world scenarios. In this work, we address the more challenging yet realistic setting of few-shot experimental design, where only a few labeled data points of input designs and their corresponding values are available. We approach this problem as a conditional generation task, where a model conditions on a few labeled examples and the desired output to generate an optimal input design. To this end, we introduce Experiment Pretrained Transformers (ExPT), a foundation model for few-shot experimental design that employs a novel combination of synthetic pretraining with in-context learning. In ExPT, we only assume knowledge of a finite collection of unlabelled data points from the input domain and pretrain a transformer neural network to optimize diverse synthetic functions defined over this domain. Unsupervised pretraining allows ExPT to adapt to any design task at test time in an in-context fashion by conditioning on a few labeled data points from the target task and generating the candidate optima. We evaluate ExPT on few-shot experimental design in challenging domains and demonstrate its superior generality and performance compared to existing methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/tung-nd/ExPT.git.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as to inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementing state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Reinforcement learning presents an attractive paradigm to reason about several distinct aspects of sequential decision making, such as specifying complex goals, planning future observations and actions, and critiquing their utilities. However, the combined integration of these capabilities poses competing algorithmic challenges in retaining maximal expressivity while allowing for flexibility in modeling choices for efficient learning and inference. We present Decision Stacks, a generative framework that decomposes goal-conditioned policy agents into 3 generative modules. These modules simulate the temporal evolution of observations, rewards, and actions via independent generative models that can be learned in parallel via teacher forcing. Our framework guarantees both expressivity and flexibility in designing individual modules to account for key factors such as architectural bias, optimization objective and dynamics, transferrability across domains, and inference speed. Our empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of Decision Stacks for offline policy optimization for several MDP and POMDP environments, outperforming existing methods and enabling flexible generative decision making.

We investigate the capability of a transformer pretrained on natural language to generalize to other modalities with minimal finetuning -- in particular, without finetuning of the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks. We consider such a model, which we call a Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), and study finetuning it on a variety of sequence classification tasks spanning numerical computation, vision, and protein fold prediction. In contrast to prior works which investigate finetuning on the same modality as the pretraining dataset, we show that pretraining on natural language can improve performance and compute efficiency on non-language downstream tasks. Additionally, we perform an analysis of the architecture, comparing the performance of a random initialized transformer to a random LSTM. Combining the two insights, we find language-pretrained transformers can obtain strong performance on a variety of non-language tasks.

We introduce the “inverse bandit” problem of estimating the rewards of a multi-armed bandit instance from observing the learning process of a low-regret demonstrator. Existing approaches to the related problem of inverse reinforcement learning assume the execution of an optimal policy, and thereby suffer from an identifiability issue. In contrast, we propose to leverage the demonstrator’s behavior en route to optimality, and in particular, the exploration phase, for reward estimation. We begin by establishing a general information-theoretic lower bound under this paradigm that applies to any demonstrator algorithm, which characterizes a fundamental tradeoff between reward estimation and the amount of exploration of the demonstrator. Then, we develop simple and efficient reward estimators for upper-confidence-based demonstrator algorithms that attain the optimal tradeoff, showing in particular that consistent reward estimation—free of identifiability issues—is possible under our paradigm. Extensive simulations on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data corroborate our theoretical results.

Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) are a class of generative models that transform a prior distribution to a model distribution by solving an ordinary differential equation (ODE). We propose to train CNFs on manifolds by minimizing probability path divergence (PPD), a novel family of divergences between the probability density path generated by the CNF and a target probability density path. PPD is formulated using a logarithmic mass conservation formula which is a linear first order partial differential equation relating the log target probabilities and the CNF’s defining vector field. PPD has several key benefits over existing methods: it sidesteps the need to solve an ODE per iteration, readily applies to manifold data, scales to high dimensions, and is compatible with a large family of target paths interpolating pure noise and data in finite time. Theoretically, PPD is shown to bound classical probability divergences. Empirically, we show that CNFs learned by minimizing PPD achieve state-of-the-art results in likelihoods and sample quality on existing low-dimensional manifold benchmarks, and is the first example of a generative model to scale to moderately high dimensional manifolds.

Neural Processes (NPs) are a popular class of approaches for meta-learning. Similar to Gaussian Processes (GPs), NPs define distributions over functions and can estimate uncertainty in their predictions. However, unlike GPs, NPs and their variants suffer from underfitting and often have intractable likelihoods, which limit their applications in sequential decision making. We propose Transformer Neural Processes (TNPs), a new member of the NP family that casts uncertainty-aware meta learning as a sequence modeling problem. We learn TNPs via an autoregressive likelihood-based objective and instantiate it with a novel transformer-based architecture that respects the inductive biases inherent to the problem structure, such as invariance to the observed data points and equivariance to the unobserved points. We further design knobs within the TNP architecture to tradeoff the increase in expressivity of the decoding distribution with extra computation. Empirically, we show that TNPs achieve state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark problems, outperforming all previous NP variants on meta regression, image completion, contextual multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization.

Recent work has shown that offline reinforcement learning (RL) can be formulated as a sequence modeling problem (Chen et al., 2021; Janner et al., 2021) and solved via approaches similar to large-scale language modeling. However, any practical instantiation of RL also involves an online component, where policies pretrained on passive offline datasets are finetuned via task-specific interactions with the environment. We propose Online Decision Transformers (ODT), an RL algorithm based on sequence modeling that blends offline pretraining with online finetuning in a unified framework. Our framework uses sequence-level entropy regularizers in conjunction with autoregressive modeling objectives for sample-efficient exploration and finetuning. Empirically, we show that ODT is competitive with the state-of-the-art in absolute performance on the D4RL benchmark but shows much more significant gains during the finetuning procedure.

Recent advances in contrastive representation learning over paired image-text data have led to models such as CLIP that achieve state-of-the-art performance for zero-shot classification and distributional robustness. Such models typically require joint reasoning in the image and text representation spaces for downstream inference tasks. Contrary to prior beliefs, we demonstrate that the image and text representations learned via a standard contrastive objective are not interchangeable and can lead to inconsistent downstream predictions. To mitigate this issue, we formalize consistency and propose CyCLIP, a framework for contrastive representation learning that explicitly optimizes for the learned representations to be geometrically consistent in the image and text space. In particular, we show that consistent representations can be learned by explicitly symmetrizing (a) the similarity between the two mismatched image-text pairs (cross-modal consistency); and (b) the similarity between the image-image pair and the text-text pair (in-modal consistency). Empirically, we show that the improved consistency in CyCLIP translates to significant gains over CLIP, with gains ranging from 10%-24% for zero-shot classification on standard benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K) and 10%-27% for robustness to various natural distribution shifts.

We are interested in learning scalable agents for reinforcement learning that can learn from large-scale, diverse sequential data similar to current large vision and language models. To this end, this paper presents masked decision prediction (MaskDP), a simple and scalable self-supervised pretraining method for reinforcement learning (RL) and behavioral cloning (BC). In our MaskDP approach, we employ a masked autoencoder (MAE) to state-action trajectories, wherein we randomly mask state and action tokens and reconstruct the missing data. By doing so, the model is required to infer masked out states and actions and extract information about dynamics. We find that masking different proportions of the input sequence significantly helps with learning a better model that generalizes well to multiple downstream tasks. In our empirical study we find that a MaskDP model gains the capability of zero-shot transfer to new BC tasks, such as single and multiple goal reaching, and it can zero-shot infer skills from a few example transitions. In addition, MaskDP transfers well to offline RL and shows promising scaling behavior w.r.t. to model size. It is amenable to data efficient finetuning, achieving competitive results with prior methods based on autoregressive pretraining.

We introduce a framework that abstracts Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequence modeling problem. This allows us to draw upon the simplicity and scalability of the Transformer architecture, and associated advances in language modeling such as GPT-x and BERT. In particular, we present Decision Transformer, an architecture that casts the problem of RL as conditional sequence modeling. Unlike prior approaches to RL that fit value functions or compute policy gradients, Decision Transformer simply outputs the optimal actions by leveraging a causally masked Transformer. By conditioning an autoregressive model on the desired return (reward), past states, and actions, our Decision Transformer model can generate future actions that achieve the desired return. Despite its simplicity, Decision Transformer matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art model-free offline RL baselines on Atari, OpenAI Gym, and Key-to-Door tasks.

A structural equation model (SEM) is an effective framework to reason over causal relationships represented via a directed acyclic graph (DAG).Recent advances have enabled effective maximum-likelihood point estimation of DAGs from observational data. However, a point estimate may not accurately capture the uncertainty in inferring the underlying graph in practical scenarios, wherein the true DAG is non-identifiable and/or the observed dataset is limited.We propose Bayesian Causal Discovery Nets (BCD Nets), a variational inference framework for estimating a distribution over DAGs characterizing a linear-Gaussian SEM.Developing a full Bayesian posterior over DAGs is challenging due to the the discrete and combinatorial nature of graphs.We analyse key design choices for scalable VI over DAGs, such as 1) the parametrization of DAGs via an expressive variational family, 2) a continuous relaxation that enables low-variance stochastic optimization, and 3) suitable priors over the latent variables.We provide a series of experiments on real and synthetic data showing that BCD Nets outperform maximum-likelihood methods on standard causal discovery metrics such as structural Hamming distance in low data regimes.

We are interested in learning generative models for complex geometries described via manifolds, such as spheres, tori, and other implicit surfaces. Current extensions of existing (Euclidean) generative models are restricted to specific geometries and typically suffer from high computational costs. We introduce Moser Flow (MF), a new class of generative models within the family of continuous normalizing flows (CNF). MF also produces a CNF via a solution to the change-of-variable formula, however differently from other CNF methods, its model (learned) density is parameterized as the source (prior) density minus the divergence of a neural network (NN). The divergence is a local, linear differential operator, easy to approximate and calculate on manifolds. Therefore, unlike other CNFs, MF does not require invoking or backpropagating through an ODE solver during training. Furthermore, representing the model density explicitly as the divergence of a NN rather than as a solution of an ODE facilitates learning high fidelity densities. Theoretically, we prove that MF constitutes a universal density approximator under suitable assumptions. Empirically, we demonstrate for the first time the use of flow models for sampling from general curved surfaces and achieve significant improvements in density estimation, sample quality, and training complexity over existing CNFs on challenging synthetic geometries and real-world benchmarks from the earth and climate sciences.

A key challenge with machine learning approaches for ranking is the gap between the performance metrics of interest and the surrogate loss functions that can be optimized with gradient-based methods. This gap arises because ranking metrics typically involve a sorting operation which is not differentiable w.r.t. the model parameters. Prior works have proposed surrogates that are loosely related to ranking metrics or simple smoothed versions thereof, and often fail to scale to real-world applications. We propose PiRank, a new class of differentiable surrogates for ranking, which employ a continuous, temperature-controlled relaxation to the sorting operator based on NeuralSort [1]. We show that PiRank exactly recovers the desired metrics in the limit of zero temperature and further propose a divide-and-conquer extension that scales favorably to large list sizes, both in theory and practice. Empirically, we demonstrate the role of larger list sizes during training and show that PiRank significantly improves over comparable approaches on publicly available Internet-scale learning-to-rank benchmarks.

Given datasets from multiple domains, a key challenge is to efficiently exploit these data sources for modeling a target domain. Variants of this problem have been studied in many contexts, such as cross-domain translation and domain adaptation. We propose AlignFlow, a generative modeling framework that models each domain via a normalizing flow. The use of normalizing flows allows for a) flexibility in specifying learning objectives via adversarial training, maximum likelihood estimation, or a hybrid of the two methods; and b) learning and exact inference of a shared representation in the latent space of the generative model. We derive a uniform set of conditions under which AlignFlow is marginally-consistent for the different learning objectives. Furthermore, we show that AlignFlow guarantees exact cycle consistency in mapping datapoints from a source domain to target and back to the source domain. Empirically, AlignFlow outperforms relevant baselines on image-to-image translation and unsupervised domain adaptation and can be used to simultaneously interpolate across the various domains using the learned representation.

Learning generative models for graph-structured data is challenging because graphs are discrete, combinatorial, and the underlying data distribution is invariant to the ordering of nodes. However, most of the existing generative models for graphs are not invariant to the chosen ordering, which might lead to an undesirable bias in the learned distribution. To address this difficulty, we propose a permutation invariant approach to modeling graphs, using the recent framework of score-based generative modeling. In particular, we design a permutation equivariant, multi-channel graph neural network to model the gradient of the data distribution at the input graph (a.k.a., the score function). This permutation equivariant model of gradients implicitly defines a permutation invariant distribution for graphs. We train this graph neural network with score matching and sample from it with annealed Langevin dynamics. In our experiments, we first demonstrate the capacity of this new architecture in learning discrete graph algorithms. For graph generation, we find that our learning approach achieves better or comparable results to existing models on benchmark datasets.

Real-world datasets are often biased with respect to key demographic factors such as race and gender. Due to the latent nature of the underlying factors, detecting and mitigating bias is especially challenging for unsupervised machine learning. We present a weakly supervised algorithm for overcoming dataset bias for deep generative models. Our approach requires access to an additional small, unlabeled reference dataset as the supervision signal, thus sidestepping the need for explicit labels on the underlying bias factors. Using this supplementary dataset, we detect the bias in existing datasets via a density ratio technique and learn generative models which efficiently achieve the twin goals of: 1) data efficiency by using training examples from both biased and reference datasets for learning; and 2) data generation close in distribution to the reference dataset at test time. Empirically, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach which reduces bias w.r.t. latent factors by an average of up to 34.6% over baselines for comparable image generation using generative adversarial networks.

Compressed sensing techniques enable efficient acquisition and recovery of sparse, highdimensional data signals via low-dimensional projections. In this work, we propose Uncertainty Autoencoders, a learning framework for unsupervised representation learning inspired by compressed sensing. We treat the low-dimensional projections as noisy latent representations of an autoencoder and directly learn both the acquisition (i.e., encoding) and amortized recovery (i.e., decoding) procedures. Our learning objective optimizes for a tractable variational lower bound to the mutual information between the datapoints and the latent representations. We show how our framework provides a unified treatment to several lines of research in dimensionality reduction, compressed sensing, and generative modeling. Empirically, we demonstrate a 32% improvement on average over competing approaches for the task of statistical compressed sensing of high-dimensional datasets.

Learning data representations that are transferable and are fair with respect to certain protected attributes is crucial to reducing unfair decisions while preserving the utility of the data. We propose an information-theoretically motivated objective for learning maximally expressive representations subject to fairness constraints. We demonstrate that a range of existing approaches optimize approximations to the Lagrangian dual of our objective. In contrast to these existing approaches, our objective allows the user to control the fairness of the representations by specifying limits on unfairness. Exploiting duality, we introduce a method that optimizes the model parameters as well as the expressiveness-fairness trade-off. Empirical evidence suggests that our proposed method can balance the trade-off between multiple notions of fairness and achieves higher expressiveness at a lower computational cost.

For reliable transmission across a noisy communication channel, classical results from information theory show that it is asymptotically optimal to separate out the source and channel coding processes. However, this decomposition can fall short in the finite bit-length regime, as it requires non-trivial tuning of hand-crafted codes and assumes infinite computational power for decoding. In this work, we propose to jointly learn the encoding and decoding processes using a new discrete variational autoencoder model. By adding noise into the latent codes to simulate the channel during training, we learn to both compress and error-correct given a fixed bit-length and computational budget. We obtain codes that are not only competitive against several separation schemes, but also learn useful robust representations of the data for downstream tasks such as classification. Finally, inference amortization yields an extremely fast neural decoder, almost an order of magnitude faster compared to standard decoding methods based on iterative belief propagation.

Graphs are a fundamental abstraction for modeling relational data. However, graphs are discrete and combinatorial in nature, and learning representations suitable for machine learning tasks poses statistical and computational challenges. In this work, we propose Graphite, an algorithmic framework for unsupervised learning of representations over nodes in large graphs using deep latent variable generative models. Our model parameterizes variational autoencoders (VAE) with graph neural networks, and uses a novel iterative graph refinement strategy inspired by low-rank approximations for decoding. On a wide variety of synthetic and benchmark datasets, Graphite outperforms competing approaches for the tasks of density estimation, link prediction, and node classification. Finally, we derive a theoretical connection between message passing in graph neural networks and mean-field variational inference.

A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio under model and true distributions. When the likelihood ratio is unknown, it can be estimated by training a probabilistic classifier to distinguish samples from the two distributions. We employ this likelihood-free importance weighting method to correct for the bias in generative models. We find that this technique consistently improves standard goodness-of-fit metrics for evaluating the sample quality of state-of-the-art deep generative models, suggesting reduced bias. Finally, we demonstrate its utility on representative applications in a) data augmentation for classification using generative adversarial networks, and b) model-based policy evaluation using off-policy data.

Adversarial learning of probabilistic models has recently emerged as a promising alternative to maximum likelihood. Implicit models such as generative adversarial networks (GAN) often generate better samples compared to explicit models trained by maximum likelihood. Yet, GANs sidestep the characterization of an explicit density which makes quantitative evaluations challenging. To bridge this gap, we propose Flow-GANs, a generative adversarial network for which we can perform exact likelihood evaluation, thus supporting both adversarial and maximum likelihood training. When trained adversarially, Flow-GANs generate high-quality samples but attain extremely poor log-likelihood scores, inferior even to a mixture model memorizing the training data; the opposite is true when trained by maximum likelihood. Results on MNIST and CIFAR-10 demonstrate that hybrid training can attain high held-out likelihoods while retaining visual fidelity in the generated samples.

We propose a novel approach for using unsupervised boosting to create an ensemble of generative models, where models are trained in sequence to correct earlier mistakes. Our meta-algorithmic framework can leverage any existing base learner that permits likelihood evaluation, including recent deep expressive models. Further, our approach allows the ensemble to include discriminative models trained to distinguish real data from model-generated data. We show theoretical conditions under which incorporating a new model in the ensemble will improve the fit and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our black-box boosting algorithms on density estimation, classification, and sample generation on benchmark datasets for a wide range of generative models.

Learning latent variable models with stochastic variational inference is challenging when the approximate posterior is far from the true posterior, due to high variance in the gradient estimates. We propose a novel rejection sampling step that discards samples from the variational posterior which are assigned low likelihoods by the model. Our approach provides an arbitrarily accurate approximation of the true posterior at the expense of extra computation. Using a new gradient estimator for the resulting unnormalized proposal distribution, we achieve average improvements of 3.71 nats and 0.31 nats over state-of-the-art single-sample and multi-sample alternatives respectively for estimating marginal log-likelihoods using sigmoid belief networks on the MNIST dataset. We show both theoretically and empirically how explicitly rejecting samples, while seemingly challenging to analyze due to the implicit nature of the resulting unnormalized proposal distribution, can have benefits over the competing state-of-the-art alternatives based on importance weighting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach via experiments on synthetic data and a benchmark density estimation task with sigmoid belief networks over the MNIST dataset.

In this paper, we propose a generalization of the best arm identification problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB) to the setting where every pull of an arm is associated with delayed feedbacks. The delay in feedbacks increases the effective sample complexity of the algorithm, but can be offset by partial feedbacks received before a pull is completed. We propose a a general modeling framework to structure in the partial feedbacks, and as a special case we introduce efficient algorithms for best arm identification in settings where the partial feedbacks are biased or unbiased estimators of the final outcome of the pull. Additionally, we propose a novel extension of the algorithms to the parallel MAB setting where an agent can control a batch of arms. Experiments on simulated as well as real world datasets of policy search for charging chemical batteries and hyperparameter optimization for mixed integer programming demonstrate that exploiting the structure of partial and delayed feedbacks can lead to significant improvements over baselines on both sequential and parallel MAB.

In compressed sensing, a small number of linear measurements can be used to reconstruct an unknown signal. Existing approaches leverage assumptions on the structure of these signals, such as sparsity or the availability of a generative model. A domain-specific generative model can provide a stronger prior and thus allow for recovery with far fewer measurements. However, unlike sparsity-based approaches, existing methods based on generative models guarantee exact recovery only over their support, which is typically only a small subset of the space on which the signals are defined. We propose Sparse-Gen, a framework that allows for sparse deviations from the support set, thereby achieving the best of both worlds by using a domain specific prior and allowing reconstruction over the full space of signals. Theoretically, our framework provides a new class of signals that can be acquired using compressed sensing, reducing classic sparse vector recovery to a special case and avoiding the restrictive support due to a generative model prior. Empirically, we observe consistent improvements in reconstruction accuracy over competing approaches, especially in the more practical setting of transfer compressed sensing where a generative model for a data-rich, source domain aids sensing on a data-scarce, target domain.

Modeling agent behavior is central to understanding the emergence of complex phenomena in multiagent systems. Prior work in agent modeling has largely been task-specific and driven by hand-engineering domain-specific prior knowledge. We propose a general learning framework for modeling agent behavior in any multiagent system using only a handful of interaction data. Our framework casts agent modeling as a representation learning problem. Consequently, we construct a novel objective inspired by imitation learning and agent identification and design an algorithm for unsupervised learning of representations of agent policies. We demonstrate empirically the utility of the proposed framework in (i) a challenging high-dimensional competitive environment for continuous control and (ii) a cooperative environment for communication, on supervised predictive tasks, unsupervised clustering, and policy optimization using deep reinforcement learning.

Flight efficiency indicators reported monthly in the European area by the Performance Review Unit (PRU) help the air traffic management (ATM) community determine if excessive distances are being flown (compared with the ideal lengths of flight routes). Recent research, however, provides more indicators that comprehensively capture flight efficiencies in terms of other factors including fuel consumption, time adherence, and route charges. The efficacy of all of these indicators, however, is diminished as they are currently only available almost a month after flights take place. This is not sufficiently timely to use these indicators for the alleviation of unpredictable hotspots (i.e. sectors with congested air traffic), which often leads to unexpected ground delays. This paper proposes a methodology to calculate general flight efficiency indicators on-line in near real-time using nearest point search. A prototype system called ROGER (compRehensive On-line fliGht Efficiency monitoRing) is implemented using Apache Kafka and Spark. ROGER can digest large-scale heterogeneous datasets (i.e. mainly ADS-B data, the next generation aircraft surveillance technology) to compute indicators every 5 seconds. Our experiments on realistic datasets demonstrate that the proposed on-line indicator calculation method can achieve high accuracy compared with existing off-line approaches, and that ROGER can achieve desirable system performance in throughput and latency. A use case is also described showing how ROGER can assist in alleviating hotspots more effectively.

Several algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems are based on survey propagation, a variational inference scheme used to obtain approximate marginal probability estimates for variable assignments. These marginals correspond to how frequently each variable is set to true among satisfying assignments, and are used to inform branching decisions during search; however, marginal estimates obtained via survey propagation are approximate and can be self-contradictory. We introduce a more general branching strategy based on streamlining constraints, which sidestep hard assignments to variables. We show that streamlined solvers consistently outperform decimation-based solvers on random k-SAT instances for several problem sizes, shrinking the gap between empirical performance and theoretical limits of satisfiability by 16.3% on average for k = 3, 4, 5, 6.

Prediction tasks over nodes and edges in networks require careful effort in engineering features used by learning algorithms. Recent research in the broader field of representation learning has led to significant progress in automating prediction by learning the features themselves. However, present feature learning approaches are not expressive enough to capture the diversity of connectivity patterns observed in networks. Here we propose node2vec, an algorithmic framework for learning continuous feature representations for nodes in networks. In node2vec, we learn a mapping of nodes to a low-dimensional space of features that maximizes the likelihood of preserving network neighborhoods of nodes. We define a flexible notion of a node's network neighborhood and design a biased random walk procedure, which efficiently explores diverse neighborhoods. Our algorithm generalizes prior work which is based on rigid notions of network neighborhoods, and we argue that the added flexibility in exploring neighborhoods is the key to learning richer representations.

Variational approaches are often used to approximate intractable posteriors or normalization constants in hierarchical latent variable models. While often effective in practice, it is known that the approximation error can be arbitrarily large. We propose a new class of bounds on the marginal log-likelihood of directed latent variable models. Our approach relies on random projections to simplify the posterior. In contrast to standard variational methods, our bounds are guaranteed to be tight with high probability. We provide a new approach for learning latent variable models based on optimizing our new bounds on the log-likelihood. We demonstrate empirical improvements on benchmark datasets in vision and language for sigmoid belief networks, where a neural network is used to approximate the posterior.

Weather forecasting is a canonical predictive challenge that has depended primarily on model-based methods. We explore new directions with forecasting weather as a data-intensive challenge that involves inferences across space and time. We study specifically the power of making predictions via a hybrid approach that combines discriminatively trained predictive models with a deep neural network that models the joint statistics of a set of weather-related variables. We show how the base model can be enhanced with spatial interpolation that uses learned long-range spatial dependencies. We also derive an efficient learning and inference procedure that allows for large scale optimization of the model parameters. We evaluate the methods with experiments on real-world meteorological data that highlight the promise of the approach.