Accuracy remains a standard metric for evaluating AI systems, but it offers limited insight into how models arrive at their solutions. In this work, we introduce a benchmark based on brainteasers written in long narrative form to probe more deeply into the types of reasoning strategies that models use. Brainteasers are well-suited for this goal because they can be solved with multiple approaches, such as a few-step solution that uses a creative insight or a longer solution that uses more brute force. We investigate large language models (LLMs) across multiple layers of reasoning, focusing not only on correctness but also on the quality and creativity of their solutions. We investigate many aspects of the reasoning process: (1) semantic parsing of the brainteasers into precise mathematical competition style formats; (2) self-correcting solutions based on gold solutions; (3) producing step-by-step sketches of solutions; and (4) making use of hints. We find that LLMs are in many cases able to find creative, insightful solutions to brainteasers, suggesting that they capture some of the capacities needed to solve novel problems in creative ways. Nonetheless, there also remain situations where they rely on brute force despite the availability of more efficient, creative solutions, highlighting a potential direction for improvement in the reasoning abilities of LLMs.

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts. The code and data are available at \url{https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess}.

There has been a significant research interest in employing large language models to empower intelligent robots with complex reasoning. Existing work focuses on harnessing their abilities to reason about the histories of their actions and observations. In this paper, we explore a new dimension in which large language models may benefit robotics planning. In particular, we propose Statler, a framework in which large language models are prompted to maintain an estimate of the world state, which are often unobservable, and track its transition as new actions are taken. Our framework then conditions each action on the estimate of the current world state. Despite being conceptually simple, our Statler framework significantly outperforms strong competing methods (e.g., Code-as-Policies) on several robot planning tasks. Additionally, it has the potential advantage of scaling up to more challenging long-horizon planning tasks. We release our code here.

If robots are to work effectively alongside people, they must be able to interpret natural language references to objects in their 3D environment. Understanding 3D referring expressions is challenging—it requires the ability to both parse the 3D structure of the scene and correctly ground free-form language in the presence of distraction and clutter. We introduce Transcrib3D, an approach that brings together 3D detection methods and the emergent reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Transcrib3D uses text as the unifying medium, which allows us to sidestep the need to learn shared representations connecting multi-modal inputs, which would require massive amounts of annotated 3D data. As a demonstration of its effectiveness, Transcrib3D achieves state-of-the-art results on 3D reference resolution benchmarks, with a great leap in performance from previous multi-modality baselines. To improve upon zero-shot performance and facilitate local deployment on edge computers and robots, we propose self-correction for fine-tuning that trains smaller models, resulting in performance close to that of large models. We show that our method enables a real robot to perform pick-and-place tasks given queries that contain challenging referring expressions. Code will be available at https://ripl.github.io/Transcrib3D.

We consider a sequential decision making problem where the agent faces the environment characterized by the stochastic discrete events and seeks an optimal intervention policy such that its long-term reward is maximized. This problem exists ubiquitously in social media, finance and health informatics but is rarely investigated by the conventional research in reinforcement learning. To this end, we present a novel framework of the model-based reinforcement learning where the agent's actions and observations are asynchronous stochastic discrete events occurring in continuous-time. We model the dynamics of the environment by Hawkes process with external intervention control term and develop an algorithm to embed such process in the Bellman equation which guides the direction of the value gradient. We demonstrate the superiority of our method in both synthetic simulator and real-data experiments.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach for training intelligent medical agents to learn treatment policies and assist decision making in many healthcare applications, such as scheduling clinical visits and assigning dosages for patients with chronic conditions. In this paper, we investigate the potential usefulness of Decision Transformer (Chen et al., 2021)–a new offline RL paradign– in medical domains where decision making in continuous time is desired. As Decision Transformer only handles discrete-time (or turn-based) sequential decision making scenarios, we generalize it to Continuous-Time Decision Transformer that not only considers the past clinical measurements and treatments but also the timings of previous visits, and learns to suggest the timings of future visits as well as the treatment plan at each visit. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets and simulators motivated by real-world medical applications demonstrate that Continuous-Time Decision Transformer is able to outperform competitors and has clinical utility in terms of improving patients’ health and prolonging their survival by learning high-performance policies from logged data generated using policies of different levels of quality.

Language models have been shown to perform remarkably well on a wide range of natural language processing tasks.In this paper, we propose LEAP, a novel system that uses language models to perform multi-step logical reasoning and incorporates explicit planning into the inference procedure.Explicit planning enables the system to make more informed reasoning decisions at each step by looking ahead into their future effects.Moreover, we propose a training strategy that safeguards the planning process from being led astray by spurious features.Our full system significantly outperforms other competing methods on multiple standard datasets.When using small T5 models as its core selection and deduction components, our system performs competitively compared to GPT-3 despite having only about 1B parameters (i.e., 175 times smaller than GPT-3).When using GPT-3.5, it significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting on the challenging PrOntoQA dataset.We have conducted extensive empirical studies to demonstrate that explicit planning plays a crucial role in the system's performance.

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework---thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models---could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

Adapter-tuning is a paradigm that transfers a pretrained language model to downstream tasks by adding and tuning a small number of new parameters.Previously proposed adapter architectures are all feed-forward neural networks.In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of using tiny-attention-i.e., attention with extremely small per-head dimensionalityas adapters.Our tiny-attention adapter learns to modify the hidden states at each position directly conditioned on the hidden states at all the other positions, which is missed by the previously proposed adapters.Moreover, we view its multiple attention heads as a mixture of experts and propose to average their weights during deployment, which further reduces its inference computation cost.On the GLUE benchmark, our tiny-attention adapter outperforms the other parameter-efficient transfer learning methods as well as full fine-tuning while only updating 0.05% of the parameters.On the FewGLUE benchmark, its performance is comparable to that of GPT-3 and PET.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Learning how to predict future events from patterns of past events is difficult when the set of possible event types is large. Training an unrestricted neural model might overfit to spurious patterns. To exploit domain-specific knowledge of how past events might affect an event’s present probability, we propose using a temporal deductive database to track structured facts over time. Rules serve to prove facts from other facts and from past events. Each fact has a time-varying state—a vector computed by a neural net whose topology is determined by the fact’s provenance, including its experience of past events. The possible event types at any time are given by special facts, whose probabilities are neurally modeled alongside their states. In both synthetic and real-world domains, we show that neural probabilistic models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding appropriate domain knowledge in their architecture.

The log-likelihood of a generative model often involves both positive and negative terms. For a temporal multivariate point process, the negative term sums over all the possible event types at each time and also integrates over all the possible times. As a result, maximum likelihood estimation is expensive. We show how to instead apply a version of noise-contrastive estimation---a general parameter estimation method with a less expensive stochastic objective. Our specific instantiation of this general idea works out in an interestingly non-trivial way and has provable guarantees for its optimality, consistency and efficiency. On several synthetic and real-world datasets, our method shows benefits: for the model to achieve the same level of log-likelihood on held-out data, our method needs considerably fewer function evaluations and less wall-clock time.

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing—a form of sequential importance sampling—to impute the missing events in an incomplete sequence. We develop a trainable family of proposal distributions based on a type of bidirectional continuous-time LSTM: Bidirectionality lets the proposals condition on future observations, not just on the past as in particle filtering. Our method can sample an ensemble of possible complete sequences (particles), from which we form a single consensus prediction that has low Bayes risk under our chosen loss metric. We experiment in multiple synthetic and real domains, using different missingness mechanisms, and modeling the complete sequences in each domain with a neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner 2017). On held-out incomplete sequences, our method is effective at inferring the ground-truth unobserved events, with particle smoothing consistently improving upon particle filtering.

We model coherent conversation continuation via RNN-based dialogue models equipped with a dynamic attention mechanism. Our attention-RNN language model dynamically increases the scope of attention on the history as the conversation continues, as opposed to standard attention (or alignment) models with a fixed input scope in a sequence-to-sequence model. This allows each generated word to be associated with the most relevant words in its corresponding conversation history. We evaluate the model on two popular dialogue datasets, the open-domain MovieTriples dataset and the closed-domain Ubuntu Troubleshoot dataset, and achieve significant improvements over the state-of-the-art and baselines on several metrics, including complementary diversity-based metrics, human evaluation, and qualitative visualizations. We also show that a vanilla RNN with dynamic attention outperforms more complex memory models (e.g., LSTM and GRU) by allowing for flexible, long-distance memory. We promote further coherence via topic modeling-based reranking.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited—in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased—by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

We propose a neural sequence-to-sequence model for direction following, a task that is essential to realizing effective autonomous agents. Our alignment-based encoder-decoder model with long short-term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNN) translates natural language instructions to action sequences based upon a representation of the observable world state. We introduce a multi-level aligner that empowers our model to focus on sentence "regions" salient to the current world state by using multiple abstractions of the input sentence. In contrast to existing methods, our model uses no specialized linguistic resources (e.g., parsers) or task-specific annotations (e.g., seed lexicons). It is therefore generalizable, yet still achieves the best results reported to-date on a benchmark single-sentence dataset and competitive results for the limited-training multi-sentence setting. We analyze our model through a series of ablations that elucidate the contributions of the primary components of our model.

We propose an end-to-end, domainindependent neural encoder-aligner-decoder model for selective generation, i.e., the joint task of content selection and surface realization.Our model first encodes a full set of over-determined database event records via an LSTM-based recurrent neural network, then utilizes a novel coarse-to-fine aligner to identify the small subset of salient records to talk about, and finally employs a decoder to generate free-form descriptions of the aligned, selected records.Our model achieves the best selection and generation results reported to-date (with 59% relative improvement in generation) on the benchmark WEATHER-GOV dataset, despite using no specialized features or linguistic resources.Using an improved k-nearest neighbor beam filter helps further.We also perform a series of ablations and visualizations to elucidate the contributions of our key model components.Lastly, we evaluate the generalizability of our model on the ROBOCUP dataset, and get results that are competitive with or better than the state-of-the-art, despite being severely data-starved.