The vast majority of statistical theory on binary classification characterizes performance in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is known in many cases to poorly reflect the practical consequences of classification error, most famously in imbalanced binary classification, where data are dominated by samples from one of two classes. The first part of this paper derives a novel generalization of the Bayes-optimal classifier from accuracy to any performance metric computed from the confusion matrix. Specifically, this result (a) demonstrates that stochastic classifiers sometimes outperform the best possible deterministic classifier and (b) removes an empirically unverifiable absolute continuity assumption that is poorly understood but pervades existing results. We then demonstrate how to use this generalized Bayes classifier to obtain regret bounds in terms of the error of estimating regression functions under uniform loss. Finally, we use these results to develop some of the first finite-sample statistical guarantees specific to imbalanced binary classification. Specifically, we demonstrate that optimal classification performance depends on properties of class imbalance, such as a novel notion called Uniform Class Imbalance, that have not previously been formalized. We further illustrate these contributions numerically in the case of $k$-nearest neighbor classification.

Subseasonal climate forecasting is the task of predicting climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, in a two-week to two-month time horizon. The primary predictors for such prediction problem are spatio-temporal satellite and ground measurements of a variety of climate variables in the atmosphere, ocean, and land, which however have rather limited predictive signal at the subseasonal time horizon. We propose a carefully constructed spatial hierarchical Bayesian regression model that makes use of the inherent spatial structure of the subseasonal climate prediction task. We use our Bayesian model to then derive decision-theoretically optimal point estimates with respect to various performance measures of interest to climate science. As we show, our approach handily improves on various off-the-shelf ML baselines. Since our method is based on a Bayesian framework, we are also able to quantify the uncertainty in our predictions, which is particularly crucial for difficult tasks such as the subseasonal prediction, where we expect any model to have considerable uncertainty at different test locations under different scenarios.

The decision-theoretic foundations of classical machine learning models have largely focused on estimating model parameters that minimize the expectation of a given loss function. However, as machine learning models are deployed in varied contexts, such as in high-stakes decision-making and societal settings, it is clear that these models are not just evaluated by their average performances. In this work, we study a novel notion of L-Risk based on the classical idea of rank-weighted learning. These L-Risks, induced by rank-dependent weighting functions with bounded variation, is a unification of popular risk measures such as conditional value-at-risk and those defined by cumulative prospect theory. We give uniform convergence bounds of this broad class of risk measures and study their consequences on a logistic regression example.

We consider imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected excess weighted risk of plug-in classifiers where the weighting for the plug-in classifier and the risk may be different. This leads to irreducible errors that do not converge to the weighted Bayes risk, which motivates our consideration of robust risks. We define a robust risk that minimizes risk over a set of weightings, show excess risk bounds for this problem, and demonstrate that particular choices of the weighting set leads to a special instance of conditional value at risk (CVaR) from stochastic programming, which we call label conditional value at risk (LCVaR). Additionally, we generalize this weighting to derive a new robust risk problem that we call label heterogeneous conditional value at risk (LHCVaR). Finally, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of LCVaR and LHCVaR on improving class conditional risks.

We consider the problem of influence maximization in fixed networks for contagion models in an adversarial setting. The goal is to select an optimal set of nodes to seed the influence process, such that the number of influenced nodes at the conclusion of the campaign is as large as possible. We formulate the problem as a repeated game between a player and adversary, where the adversary specifies the edges along which the contagion may spread, and the player chooses sets of nodes to influence in an online fashion. We establish upper and lower bounds on the minimax pseudo-regret in both undirected and directed networks.

We establish upper and lower bounds for the influence of a set of nodes in certain types of contagion models. We derive two sets of bounds, the first designed for linear threshold models, and the second more broadly applicable to a general class of triggering models, which subsumes the popular independent cascade models, as well. We quantify the gap between our upper and lower bounds in the case of the linear threshold model and illustrate the gains of our upper bounds for independent cascade models in relation to existing results. Importantly, our lower bounds are monotonic and submodular, implying that a greedy algorithm for influence maximization is guaranteed to produce a maximizer within a (1 - 1/e)-factor of the truth. Although the problem of exact influence computation is NP-hard in general, our bounds may be evaluated efficiently. This leads to an attractive, highly scalable algorithm for influence maximization with rigorous theoretical guarantees.