Causal inference using observational data is challenging, especially in the bivariate case. Through the minimum description length principle, we link the postulate of independence between the generating mechanisms of the cause and of the effect given the cause to quantile regression. Based on this theory, we develop Bivariate Quantile Causal Discovery (bQCD), a new method to distinguish cause from effect assuming no confounding, selection bias or feedback. Because it uses multiple quantile levels instead of the conditional mean only, bQCD is adaptive not only to additive, but also to multiplicative or even location-scale generating mechanisms. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we perform an extensive empirical comparison on both synthetic and real datasets. This study shows that bQCD is robust across different implementations of the method (i.e., the quantile regression), computationally efficient, and compares favorably to state-of-the-art methods.

We present a neural network (NN) approach to fit and predict implied volatility surfaces (IVSs). Atypically to standard NN applications, financial industry practitioners use such models equally to replicate market prices and to value other financial instruments. In other words, low training losses are as important as generalization capabilities. Importantly, IVS models need to generate realistic arbitrage-free option prices, meaning that no portfolio can lead to risk-free profits. We propose an approach guaranteeing the absence of arbitrage opportunities by penalizing the loss using soft constraints. Furthermore, our method can be combined with standard IVS models in quantitative finance, thus providing a NN-based correction when such models fail at replicating observed market prices. This lets practitioners use our approach as a plug-in on top of classical methods. Empirical results show that this approach is particularly useful when only sparse or erroneous data are available. We also quantify the uncertainty of the model predictions in regions with few or no observations. We further explore how deeper NNs improve over shallower ones, as well as other properties of the network architecture. We benchmark our method against standard IVS models. By evaluating our method on both training sets, and testing sets, namely, we highlight both their capacity to reproduce observed prices and predict new ones.

We introduce the vine copula autoencoder (VCAE), a flexible generative model for high-dimensional distributions built in a straightforward three-step procedure. First, an autoencoder (AE) compresses the data into a lower dimensional representation. Second, the multivariate distribution of the encoded data is estimated with vine copulas. Third, a generative model is obtained by combining the estimated distribution with the decoder part of the AE. As such, the proposed approach can transform any already trained AE into a flexible generative model at a low computational cost. This is an advantage over existing generative models such as adversarial networks and variational AEs which can be difficult to train and can impose strong assumptions on the latent space. Experiments on MNIST, Street View House Numbers and Large-Scale CelebFaces Attributes datasets show that VCAEs can achieve competitive results to standard baselines.