African smallholder farmers have struggled with low agricultural productivity for decades, partly due to their inability to proactively assess irrigation needs in their farms in the face of long-term climate change. In this paper, we tackle this challenge by employing data-driven techniques to develop forecasting tools for three widely used crop-productivity related variables (i.e., actual evapotranspiration, reference evapotranspiration, and net primary production), which can then be used by farmers to take corrective actions on their farms. Prior work in this domain, despite using data-driven methods, suffers from two major limitations: (i) they mainly focus on estimating variable values (as opposed to forecasting the future); and (ii) they mostly use classical Machine Learning (ML) prediction models, despite the abundance of data sufficient to train sophisticated deep learning models. To fill this research gap, we collaborate with PlantVillage, the world’s leading non-profit agricultural knowledge delivery platform for African farmers, to identify ∼2,200 smallholder farm locations, and gather remote-sensed data of these farms over a period of five years. Next, we propose CLIMATES, a meta-algorithm leveraging structural insights about temporal patterns of this time-series data to accurately forecast their future values. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate its performance in this domain. Our experimental results show that CLIMATES outperforms several state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models. We also provide insights about the poor performance of some competing models. Our work is being evaluated by officials at PlantVillage for potential future deployment as an early warning system in East Africa. We release the code at https://github.com/maryam-tabar/CLIMATES.

In most of the developing countries, the economy is largely based on agriculture. The poor availability of skilled personnel and of appropriate supporting infrastructure, make crop fields vulnerable to the outbreak of plant diseases, possibly due to spreading viruses and fungi, or to adverse environmental conditions, such as drought. The mobile application PlantVillage Nuru provides an invaluable tool for early detection of plant diseases and sustainable food production. A mobile device endowed with Nuru is a powerful mobile sensor: it analyzes plant images and uses an AI engine to recognize health issues. In this article, we propose a crowdsensing framework, where Nuru is adopted at large scale in the farmer population. We tackle the device deployment problem, where device mobility is only partially controllable, mostly in an indirect manner, through incentives. We propose two problem formulations, and related algorithms, to minimize the number of required smartphones while providing sufficient geographical coverage. We study the proposed models in simulated as well as real scenarios, showing that they outperform the current solutions in terms of monitoring accuracy and completeness, with lower cost. Then, we describe the testbed implementation, confirming the applicability of the proposed crowdsensing framework in a real scenario in Kenya.

East Africa is experiencing the worst locust infestation in over 25 years, which has severely threatened the food security of millions of people across the region. The primary strategy adopted by human experts at the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (UN-FAO) to tackle locust outbreaks involves manually surveying at-risk geographical areas, followed by allocating and spraying pesticides in affected regions. In order to augment and assist human experts at the UN-FAO in this task, we utilize crowdsourced reports of locust observations collected by PlantVillage (the world's leading knowledge delivery system for East African farmers) and develop PLAN, a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm for forecasting future migration patterns of locusts at high spatial and temporal resolution across East Africa. PLAN's novel spatio-temporal deep learning architecture enables representing PlantVillage's crowdsourced locust observation data using novel image-based feature representations, and its design is informed by several unique insights about this problem domain. Experimental results show that PLAN achieves superior predictive performance against several baseline models - it achieves an AUC score of 0.9 when used with a data augmentation method. PLAN represents a first step in using deep learning to assist and augment human expertise at PlantVillage (and UN-FAO) in locust prediction, and its real-world usability is currently being evaluated by domain experts (including a potential idea to use the heatmaps created by PLAN in a Kenyan TV show). The source code is available at https://github.com/maryam-tabar/PLAN.

We present AntVis, a web-based visual analytics tool for exploring ant movement data collected from the video recording of ants moving on tree branches. Our goal is to enable domain experts to visually explore massive ant movement data and gain valuable insights via effective visualization, filtering, and comparison. This is achieved through a deep learning framework for automatic detection, segmentation, and labeling of ants, ant movement clustering based on their trace similarity, and the design and development of five coordinated views (the movement, similarity, timeline, statistical, and attribute views) for user interaction and exploration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of AntVis with several case studies developed in close collaboration with domain experts. Finally, we report the expert evaluation conducted by an entomologist and point out future directions of this study.