In industrial scenarios with insufficient sensor data, intelligent few-shot failure mode recognition and remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction are critically essential for effective prognostics and health management. Existing few-shot learning (FSL) methods focus on either the failure mode recognition as a classification problem or the RUL prediction as a regression problem, failing to capture the dependence between failure modes and RUL given that units under different failure modes present distinct degradation characteristics. To address the issue, this paper proposes a distribution-agnostic probabilistic FSL method for multimodal recognition and prediction of operating units. The proposed model establishes a neural network with prototypes to solve a few-shot classification-and regression-integrated problem. To fully capture the uncertainty caused by limited sensor data, we develop multimodal Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning (MBMAML) for the probabilistic modeling of failure modes and the RUL under multiple failure modes. We construct the loss function based on probabilistic modeling that captures the interaction between failure modes and RUL for model training. Finally, the proposed model adaptively learns the approximate distributions of failure modes and RUL for a new operating unit. We evaluate the proposed model performance through a case study on the degradation of aircraft gas turbine engines.Note to Practitioners—Failure mode recognition and RUL prediction are essential in prognostics health management (PHM) to avoid unexpected failures of units in industrial systems, such as aircraft gas turbine engines. However, insufficient sensor data are quite common issue in industrial scenarios due to expensive sensor deployment, the difficulty of installing sensors to certain special mechanical equipment, and so on. This paper aims to develop a FSL method to jointly recognize the failure mode and predict the RUL of a unit based on insufficient sensor data. The four steps to implement the proposed method in practice are as follows:First, collect sensor signal data, RUL data, and failure mode data of units.Second, construct the model framework via the proposed MBMAML.Third, formulate the loss function based on the probability distributions of failure modes and RUL, and train the model using collected data.Fourth, adaptively recognize the failure mode and predict the RUL of a new operating unit. The proposed method is expected to be applicable to many practical few-shot industrial scenarios due to its data-driven neural network with flexible model structure.

Sleep apnea, a prevalent sleep-related breathing disorder, often remains undiagnosed and untreated in a large patient population due to the need of extensive manual annotations on various physiological signals for clinical diagnosis. Despite the surge of interest in applying machine learning to automate apnea detection, the effectiveness of existing techniques highly relies on strongly supervised learning that requires massive finely labeled training data for sufficiently short time intervals - a requirement often unmet due to the prohibitively high cost of manual labeling in clinical practice. In this article, we incorporate clinical knowledge to establish a weakly supervised deep learning framework for automatically estimating the latent fine-grained apnea severity when only coarse-grained labels indicating apnea presence are available in the training data. Specifically, a novel knowledge-enhanced dual-granularity consistency loss, which simultaneously considers the consistency between coarse- and fine-granularity and the integration of clinical knowledge on apnea diagnosis, is designed to boost the model's learning of apnea severity at the fine granularity. A mathematical encoding of clinical knowledge is proposed to calibrate fine-grained estimation accuracy through ordinal alignment functions, which quantitatively relates the severity of apnea to the prominence of key diagnosis-informed physiological symptoms. The proposed method is able to accurately estimate fine-grained apnea severity in real time with significantly reduced labeling costs, extending the reach of sleep apnea diagnostics to larger population both in lab and at home. An experiment is conducted to demonstrate the superior estimation performance of the proposed method for monitoring apnea severity at high temporal resolution.

To avoid unexpected failures of units in manufacturing systems, failure mode recognition and prognostics are critically important in prognostics health management (PHM). Most existing methods either ignored the effects of various failure modes on remaining useful lifetime (RUL) prediction or implemented failure mode recognition and RUL prediction as two independent tasks, which failed to exploit failure mode information to obtain accurate RUL prediction. In fact, RUL highly depends on failure modes because sensor signals under different failure modes usually present different degradation patterns. To address the issue, this paper proposes a joint learning model of failure mode recognition and RUL prediction for degradation processes based on multiple sensor signals. The proposed joint learning model first extracts features by considering the degradation mechanism to ensure good interpretability for degradation modeling, and then takes the extracted features as inputs to a deep neural network. By conducting failure mode recognition and RUL prediction as a collaborative task, the proposed model can fully characterize the complex relationship among the extracted features, RUL and failure modes, and outputs the recognized failure modes and the predicted RUL of units simultaneously. A case study on the degradation of aircraft gas turbine engines is presented to evaluate the proposed model performance.Note to Practitioners—The paper aims to develop a joint learning method for failure mode recognition and RUL prediction of operating units. Specifically, the developed method addresses a challenging issue in practice, i.e., how to effectively conduct failure mode recognition and RUL prediction as a joint task based on interpretable extracted degradation features from multiple sensor signals. To implement this method in practice, four steps are included as follows: First, collect multiple sensor signals, failure time, and failure modes of historical units. Second, construct the joint learning model based on features extracted from sensor signals by considering the degradation mechanism. Third, estimate model parameters using the data of historical units. Fourth, recognize the failure mode and predict the RUL of an in-service unit. Since the proposed method is a data-driven neural network with flexible model structure that considers complex data relationships, it is expected to be applicable to many practical situations and use cases, especially for manufacturing systems with complex structures and unknown failure thresholds.

Although degradation modeling has been widely applied to use multiple sensor signals to monitor the degradation process and predict the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of operating machinery units, three challenging issues remain. One challenge is that units in engineering cases usually work under multiple operational conditions, causing the distribution of sensor signals to vary over conditions. It remains unexplored to characterize time-varying conditions as a distribution shift problem. The second challenge is that sensor signal fusion and degradation status modeling are separated into two independent steps in most of the existing methods, which ignores the intrinsic correlation between the two parts. The last challenge is how to find an accurate health index (HI) of units using previous knowledge of degradation. To tackle these issues, this article proposes an adaptation-aware interactive learning (AAIL) approach for degradation modeling. First, a condition-invariant HI is developed to handle time-varying operation conditions. Second, an interactive framework based on the fusion and degradation model is constructed, which naturally integrates a supervised learner and an unsupervised learner. To estimate the model parameters of AAIL, we propose an interactive training algorithm that shares learned degradation and fusion information during the model training process. A case study that uses the degradation data set of aircraft engines demonstrates that the proposed AAIL outperforms related benchmark methods.

The development of the Internet of Energy (IoE) is facilitated by the integration of information technology and the growing utilization of distributed energy resources (DERs). The usage of DERs, particularly photovoltaic systems and battery energy storage systems, in IoE has revealed the potential for DERs to be leveraged for grid control. To encourage DER owners to participate in grid management, grid operators must coordinate DERs with guaranteed fairness. However, the fairness of DER coordination is now endangered due to the growing concerns about cyber attacks on DERs. This paper considers false data injection attacks (FDIAs), where attackers can tamper with measurements sent to the grid operator. We study the impact of FDIAs on the fairness of the DER coordination and develop an algorithm that guarantees fairness in the presence of FDIAs. DER coordination is formulated as an optimal power flow problem that reduces voltage fluctuations and attack impacts, increases DER revenues, and ensures system-wide fairness. To achieve fair DER coordination, we propose an analog definition of fairness for different DER types and incorporate the fairness measures into DER coordination. Additionally, a robust Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regularizer is designed to forecast the actual values of fraudulent measurements and mitigate the attack’s impacts. Using a distribution feeder from the Southern California Edison system, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach: fairness is assured both with and without attacks. Additionally, the proposed algorithm’s efficiency is justified by an average execution time of 2.56s.

The monitoring of data streams with a network structure have drawn increasing attention due to its wide applications in modern process control. In these applications, high-dimensional sensor nodes are interconnected with an underlying network topology. In such a case, abnormalities occurring to any node may propagate dynamically across the network and cause changes of other nodes over time. Furthermore, high dimensionality of such data significantly increased the cost of resources for data transmission and computation, such that only partial observations can be transmitted or processed in practice. Overall, how to quickly detect abnormalities in such large networks with resource constraints remains a challenge, especially due to the sampling uncertainty under the dynamic anomaly occurrences and network-based patterns. In this paper, we incorporate network structure information into the monitoring and adaptive sampling methodologies for quick anomaly detection in large networks where only partial observations are available. We develop a general monitoring and adaptive sampling method and further extend it to the case with memory constraints, both of which exploit network distance and centrality information for better process monitoring and identification of abnormalities. Theoretical investigations of the proposed methods demonstrate their sampling efficiency on balancing between exploration and exploitation, as well as the detection performance guarantee. Numerical simulations and a case study on power network have demonstrated the superiority of the proposed methods in detecting various types of shifts. Note to Practitioners—Continuous monitoring of networks for anomalous events is critical for a large number of applications involving power networks, computer networks, epidemiological surveillance, social networks, etc. This paper aims at addressing the challenges in monitoring large networks in cases where monitoring resources are limited such that only a subset of nodes in the network is observable. Specifically, we integrate network structure information of nodes for constructing sequential detection methods via effective data augmentation, and for designing adaptive sampling algorithms to observe suspicious nodes that are likely to be abnormal. Then, the method is further generalized to the case that the memory of the computation is also constrained due to the network size. The developed method is greatly beneficial and effective for various anomaly patterns, especially when the initial anomaly randomly occurs to nodes in the network. The proposed methods are demonstrated to be capable of quickly detecting changes in the network and dynamically changes the sampling priority based on online observations in various cases, as shown in the theoretical investigation, simulations and case studies.

Hospital emergency department (ED) operations are affected when critically ill or injured patients arrive. Such events often lead to the initiation of specific protocols, referred to as Resuscitation-team Activation (RA), in the ED of Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN where this study was conducted. RA events lead to the diversion of resources from other patients in the ED to provide care to critically ill patients; therefore, it has an impact on the entire ED system. This paper presents a data-driven and flexible statistical learning model to quantify the impact of RA on the ED. The model learns the pattern of operations in the ED from historical patient arrival and departure timestamps and quantifies the impact of RA by measuring the deviation of the departure of patients during RA from normal processes. The proposed method significantly outperforms baseline methods based on measuring the average time patients spend in the ED.

The monitoring and diagnosis of multivariate categorical processes (MCPs) have drawn increasing attention lately, as categorical variables have been frequently involved in modern quality control applications. In these applications, there may exist causal relationships among multiple categorical variables, where the attribute level of a cause variable influences that of its effect variable. In such a case, shifts occurring in a cause variable will propagate to its effect variable based on the causal structure. Furthermore, there usually exists natural order among the attribute levels of some categorical variables such as good, neutral, and bad for measuring the product quality. By assuming a latent continuous variable, the attribute levels of an ordinal categorical variable can be determined by classifying the value of the latent variable based on thresholds. In this paper, we leverage Bayesian networks (BNs) to characterize MCPs with a causal structure, where the categorical variables can be either nominal, ordinal or a combination of both. We develop one general control chart and one directional control chart, both of which fully exploit the causal relationships and the ordinal information for better process monitoring and diagnosis. Numerical simulations have demonstrated the superiority and robustness of our method in detecting and diagnosing the conditional probability shifts of nominal factors as well as the conditional latent location shifts of ordinal factors. Note to Practitioners-This paper aims at addressing the challenges in monitoring and diagnosing MCPs when there are causal relationships among the categorical variables. The developed method is greatly beneficial, especially when there are nominal and ordinal variables involved in the MCP. Specifically, a BN is employed to characterize the dependence structure of the variables involved in the process, and a latent continuous variable is utilized to model the orders of attribute levels of the ordinal variables. Then, a novel method is proposed to detect the probability shift in the nominal factors and the location shift on the latent variables of the ordinal variables based on the likelihood ratio test. A general monitoring control chart as well as a directional version which also facilitates diagnosis is proposed. In this paper, although our method is based on the assumption that the latent continuous variables of the ordinal variables follow logistic distributions, the proposed charts are demonstrated to perform efficiently and robustly in various cases as shown in the simulations and case studies.