Current brain-computer interfaces primarily decode single motor variables, limiting natural control requiring simultaneous multi-dimensional extraction. We introduce Multi-dimensional Neural Decoding (MND), a task that simultaneously extracts multiple motor variables (direction, position, velocity, acceleration) from single neural population recordings. MND faces two key challenges: cross-task interference when decoding correlated motor dimensions from shared cortical representations, and generalization issues across sessions, subjects, and paradigms. To address these challenges, we propose OrthoSchema, a multi-task framework inspired by cortical orthogonal subspace organization and cognitive schema reuse. OrthoSchema enforces representation orthogonality to eliminate cross-task interference and employs selective feature reuse transfer for few-shot cross-session, subject and paradigm adaptation. Experiments on macaque motor cortex datasets demonstrate that OrthoSchema significantly improves decoding accuracy in cross-session, subject and paradigm generalization tasks, with larger performance improvements when fine-tuning samples are limited. Ablation studies confirm the synergistic effects of all components are crucial, with OrthoSchema effectively modeling cross-task features and capturing session relationships for robust transfer. Our results provide new insights into scalable and robust neural decoding for real-world BCI applications.

When deploying modern machine learning-enabled robotic systems in high-stakes applications, detecting distribution shift is critical. However, most existing methods for detecting distribution shift are not well-suited to robotics settings, where data often arrives in a streaming fashion and may be very high-dimensional. In this work, we present an online method for detecting distribution shift with guarantees on the false positive rate — i.e., when there is no distribution shift, our system is very unlikely (with probability < ε) to falsely issue an alert; any alerts that are issued should therefore be heeded. Our method is specifically designed for efficient detection even with high dimensional data, and it empirically achieves up to 11x faster detection on realistic robotics settings compared to prior work while maintaining a low false negative rate in practice (whenever there is a distribution shift in our experiments, our method indeed emits an alert). We demonstrate our approach in both simulation and hardware for a visual servoing task, and show that our method indeed issues an alert before a failure occurs.

Introduced as a notion of algorithmic fairness, multicalibration has proved to be a powerful and versatile concept with implications far beyond its original intent. This stringent notion—that predictions be well-calibrated across a rich class of intersecting subpopulations—provides its strong guarantees at a cost: the computational and sample complexity of learning multicalibrated predictors are high, and grow exponentially with the number of class labels. In contrast, the relaxed notion of multiaccuracy can be achieved more efficiently, yet many of the most desirable properties of multicalibration cannot be guaranteed assuming multiaccuracy alone. This tension raises a key question: \emph{Can we learn predictors with multicalibration-style guarantees at a cost commensurate with multiaccuracy?} In this work, we define and initiate the study of \emph{Low-Degree Multicalibration}. Low-Degree Multicalibration defines a hierarchy of increasingly-powerful multi-group fairness notions that spans multiaccuracy and the original formulation of multicalibration at the extremes. Our main technical contribution demonstrates that key properties of multicalibration, related to fairness and accuracy, actually manifest as low-degree properties. Importantly, we show that low-degree multicalibration can be significantly more efficient than full multicalibration. In the multi-class setting, the sample complexity to achieve low-degree multicalibration improves exponentially (in the number of classes) over full multicalibration. Our work presents compelling evidence that low-degree multicalibration represents a sweet spot, pairing computational and sample efficiency with strong fairness and accuracy guarantees.

Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a calibrated model. However, the applicability of existing methods is limited due to their assumption that the original model is also a probabilistic model. We introduce a versatile class of algorithms for recalibration in regression that we call modular conformal calibration (MCC). This framework allows one to transform any regression model into a calibrated probabilistic model. The modular design of MCC allows us to make simple adjustments to existing algorithms that enable well-behaved distribution predictions. We also provide finite-sample calibration guarantees for MCC algorithms. Our framework recovers isotonic recalibration, conformal calibration, and conformal interval prediction, implying that our theoretical results apply to those methods as well. Finally, we conduct an empirical study of MCC on 17 regression datasets. Our results show that new algorithms designed in our framework achieve near-perfect calibration and improve sharpness relative to existing methods.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for efficiently inferring optima of an expensive black-box function via a sequence of queries. Existing information-theoretic BO procedures aim to make queries that most reduce the uncertainty about optima, where the uncertainty is captured by Shannon entropy. However, an optimal measure of uncertainty would, ideally, factor in how we intend to use the inferred quantity in some downstream procedure. In this paper, we instead consider a generalization of Shannon entropy from work in statistical decision theory (DeGroot 1962, Rao 1984), which contains a broad class of uncertainty measures parameterized by a problem-specific loss function corresponding to a downstream task. We first show that special cases of this entropy lead to popular acquisition functions used in BO procedures such as knowledge gradient, expected improvement, and entropy search. We then show how alternative choices for the loss yield a flexible family of acquisition functions that can be customized for use in novel optimization settings. Additionally, we develop gradient-based methods to efficiently optimize our proposed family of acquisition functions, and demonstrate strong empirical performance on a diverse set of sequential decision making tasks, including variants of top-$k$ optimization, multi-level set estimation, and sequence search.

Probabilistic classifiers output confidence scores along with their predictions, and these confidence scores should be calibrated, i.e., they should reflect the reliability of the prediction. Confidence scores that minimize standard metrics such as the expected calibration error (ECE) accurately measure the reliability \textit{on average} across the entire population. However, it is in general impossible to measure the reliability of an \textit{individual} prediction. In this work, we propose the local calibration error (LCE) to span the gap between average and individual reliability. For each individual prediction, the LCE measures the average reliability of a set of similar predictions, where similarity is quantified by a kernel function on a pretrained feature space and by a binning scheme over predicted model confidences. We show theoretically that the LCE can be estimated sample-efficiently from data, and empirically find that it reveals miscalibration modes that are more fine-grained than the ECE can detect. Our key result is a novel {\textbf{lo}cal \textbf{re}calibration} method \method{}, to improve confidence scores for individual predictions and decrease the LCE. Experimentally, we show that our recalibration method produces more accurate confidence scores, which improves downstream fairness and decision making on classification tasks with both image and tabular data.

Decision makers often need to rely on imperfect probabilistic forecasts. While average performance metrics are typically available, it is difficult to assess the quality of individual forecasts and the corresponding utilities. To convey confidence about individual predictions to decision-makers, we propose a compensation mechanism ensuring that the forecasted utility matches the actually accrued utility. While a naive scheme to compensate decision-makers for prediction errors can be exploited and might not be sustainable in the long run, we propose a mechanism based on fair bets and online learning that provably cannot be exploited. We demonstrate an application showing how passengers could confidently optimize individual travel plans based on flight delay probabilities estimated by an airline.

Decision makers rely on probabilistic forecasts to predict the loss of different decision rules before deployment. When the forecasted probabilities match the true frequencies, predicted losses will be accurate. Although perfect forecasts are typically impossible, probabilities can be calibrated to match the true frequencies on average. However, we find that this \textit{average} notion of calibration, which is typically used in practice, does not necessarily guarantee accurate decision loss prediction. Specifically in the regression setting, the loss of threshold decisions, which are decisions based on whether the forecasted outcome falls above or below a cutoff, might not be predicted accurately. We propose a stronger notion of calibration called threshold calibration, which is exactly the condition required to ensure that decision loss is predicted accurately for threshold decisions. We provide an efficient algorithm which takes an uncalibrated forecaster as input and provably outputs a threshold-calibrated forecaster. Our procedure allows downstream decision makers to confidently estimate the loss of any threshold decision under any threshold loss function. Empirically, threshold calibration improves decision loss prediction without compromising on the quality of the decisions in two real-world settings: hospital scheduling decisions and resource allocation decisions.

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated--- amongst the inputs that receive a predicted vector of class probabilities q, the actual distribution over classes is given by q. For multi-class prediction problems, however, directly optimizing predictions under distribution calibration tends to be infeasible, requiring sample complexity that grows exponentially in the number of classes C. In this work, we introduce a new notion---decision calibration---that requires the predicted distribution and true distribution over classes to be ``indistinguishable'' to downstream decision-makers. This perspective gives a new characterization of distribution calibration: a predictor is distribution calibrated if and only if it is decision calibrated with respect to all decision-makers. Our main result shows that under a mild restriction, unlike distribution calibration, decision calibration is actually feasible. We design a recalibration algorithm that provably achieves decision calibration efficiently, provided that the decision-makers have a bounded number of actions (e.g., polynomial in C). We validate our recalibration algorithm empirically: compared to existing methods, decision calibration improves decision-making on skin lesion and ImageNet classification with modern neural network predictors.

Learning generative models for graph-structured data is challenging because graphs are discrete, combinatorial, and the underlying data distribution is invariant to the ordering of nodes. However, most of the existing generative models for graphs are not invariant to the chosen ordering, which might lead to an undesirable bias in the learned distribution. To address this difficulty, we propose a permutation invariant approach to modeling graphs, using the recent framework of score-based generative modeling. In particular, we design a permutation equivariant, multi-channel graph neural network to model the gradient of the data distribution at the input graph (a.k.a., the score function). This permutation equivariant model of gradients implicitly defines a permutation invariant distribution for graphs. We train this graph neural network with score matching and sample from it with annealed Langevin dynamics. In our experiments, we first demonstrate the capacity of this new architecture in learning discrete graph algorithms. For graph generation, we find that our learning approach achieves better or comparable results to existing models on benchmark datasets.

We consider the problem of estimating confidence intervals for the mean of a random variable, where the goal is to produce the smallest possible interval for a given number of samples. While minimax optimal algorithms are known for this problem in the general case, improved performance is possible under additional assumptions. In particular, we design an estimation algorithm to take advantage of side information in the form of a control variate, leveraging order statistics. Under certain conditions on the quality of the control variates, we show improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing estimation algorithms. Empirically, we demonstrate superior performance on several real world surveying and estimation tasks where we use regression models as control variates.

We study the question of how to imitate tasks across domains with discrepancies such as embodiment, viewpoint, and dynamics mismatch. Many prior works require paired, aligned demonstrations and an additional RL step that requires environment interactions. However, paired, aligned demonstrations are seldom obtainable and RL procedures are expensive. In this work, we formalize the Domain Adaptive Imitation Learning (DAIL) problem - a unified framework for imitation learning in the presence of viewpoint, embodiment, and/or dynamics mismatch. Informally, DAIL is the process of learning how to perform a task optimally, given demonstrations of the task in a distinct domain. We propose a two step approach to DAIL: alignment followed by adaptation. In the alignment step we execute a novel unsupervised MDP alignment algorithm, Generative Adversarial MDP Alignment (GAMA), to learn state and action correspondences from \emph{unpaired, unaligned} demonstrations. In the adaptation step we leverage the correspondences to zero-shot imitate tasks across domains. To describe when DAIL is feasible via alignment and adaptation, we introduce a theory of MDP alignability. We experimentally evaluate GAMA against baselines in embodiment, viewpoint, and dynamics mismatch scenarios where aligned demonstrations don’t exist and show the effectiveness of our approach

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer no guarantees on predictions made on individual samples. Thus, predictions can be systematically over or under confident on certain subgroups, leading to issues of fairness and potential vulnerabilities. We show that calibration for individual samples is possible in the regression setup if and only if the predictions are randomized, i.e. outputting randomized credible intervals. Randomization removes systematic bias by trading off bias with variance. We design a training objective to enforce individual calibration and use it to train randomized regression functions. The resulting models are more calibrated for arbitrarily chosen subgroups of the data, and can achieve higher utility in decision making against adversaries that exploit miscalibrated predictions.

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized inference distributions and, in some cases, improving the objective provably degrades the inference quality. In addition, it has been observed that variational autoencoders tend to ignore the latent variables when combined with a decoding distribution that is too flexible. We again identify the cause in existing training criteria and propose a new class of objectives (Info-VAE) that mitigate these problems. We show that our model can significantly improve the quality of the variational posterior and can make effective use of the latent features regardless of the flexibility of the decoding distribution. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses, we demonstrate that our models outperform competing approaches on multiple performance metrics

Learning data representations that are transferable and are fair with respect to certain protected attributes is crucial to reducing unfair decisions while preserving the utility of the data. We propose an information-theoretically motivated objective for learning maximally expressive representations subject to fairness constraints. We demonstrate that a range of existing approaches optimize approximations to the Lagrangian dual of our objective. In contrast to these existing approaches, our objective allows the user to control the fairness of the representations by specifying limits on unfairness. Exploiting duality, we introduce a method that optimizes the model parameters as well as the expressiveness-fairness trade-off. Empirical evidence suggests that our proposed method can balance the trade-off between multiple notions of fairness and achieves higher expressiveness at a lower computational cost.

Variance reduction is crucial in stochastic estimation and optimization problems. Antithetic sampling reduces the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by drawing correlated, rather than independent, samples. However, designing an effective correlation structure is challenging and application specific, thus limiting the practical applicability of these methods. In this paper, we propose a general-purpose adaptive antithetic sampling framework. We provide gradient-based and gradient-free methods to train the samplers such that they reduce variance while ensuring that the underlying Monte Carlo estimator is provably unbiased. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on Bayesian inference and generative model training, where it reduces variance and improves task performance with little computational overhead.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs.

In high dimensional settings, density estimation algorithms rely crucially on their inductive bias. Despite recent empirical success, the inductive bias of deep generative models is not well understood. In this paper we propose a framework to systematically investigate bias and generalization in deep generative models of images by probing the learning algorithm with carefully designed training datasets. By measuring properties of the learned distribution, we are able to find interesting patterns of generalization. We verify that these patterns are consistent across datasets, common models and architectures.

Deep neural networks have been shown to be very successful at learning feature hierarchies in supervised learning tasks. Generative models, on the other hand, have benefited less from hierarchical models with multiple layers of latent variables. In this paper, we prove that hierarchical latent variable models do not take advantage of the hierarchical structure when trained with existing variational methods, and provide some limitations on the kind of features existing models can learn. Finally we propose an alternative architecture that do not suffer from these limitations. Our model is able to learn highly interpretable and disentangled hierarchical features on several natural image datasets with no task specific regularization or prior knowledge.

Existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are either based on general-purpose and domain-agnostic schemes, which can lead to slow convergence, or require hand-crafting of problem-specific proposals by an expert. We propose A-NICE-MC, a novel method to train flexible parametric Markov chain kernels to produce samples with desired properties. First, we propose an efficient likelihood-free adversarial training method to train a Markov chain and mimic a given data distribution. Then, we leverage flexible volume preserving flows to obtain parametric kernels for MCMC. Using a bootstrap approach, we show how to train efficient Markov Chains to sample from a prescribed posterior distribution by iteratively improving the quality of both the model and the samples. A-NICE-MC provides the first framework to automatically design efficient domain-specific MCMC proposals. Empirical results demonstrate that A-NICE-MC combines the strong guarantees of MCMC with the expressiveness of deep neural networks, and is able to significantly outperform competing methods such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

Many recent algorithms for approximate model counting are based on a reduction to combinatorial searches over random subsets of the space defined by parity or XOR constraints. Long parity constraints (involving many variables) provide strong theoretical guarantees but are computationally difficult. Short parity constraints are easier to solve but have weaker statistical properties. It is currently not known how long these parity constraints need to be. We close the gap by providing matching necessary and sufficient conditions on the required asymptotic length of the parity constraints. Further, we provide a new family of lower bounds and the first non-trivial upper bounds on the model count that are valid for arbitrarily short XORs. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of these bounds on model counting benchmarks and in a Satisfiability Modulo Theory (SMT) application motivated by the analysis of contingency tables in statistics.

A key challenge in sequential decision problems is to determine how many samples are needed for an agent to make reliable decisions with good probabilistic guarantees. We introduce Hoeffding-like concentration inequalities that hold for a random, adaptively chosen number of samples. Our inequalities are tight under natural assumptions and can greatly simplify the analysis of common sequential decision problems. In particular, we apply them to sequential hypothesis testing, best arm identification, and sorting. The resulting algorithms rival or exceed the state of the art both theoretically and empirically.