Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means that the method should produce larger prediction sets for more difficult examples, and smaller ones for easier examples. Existing evaluation methods for adaptiveness typically analyze coverage rate violation or average set size across bins of examples grouped by difficulty. However, these approaches often suffer from imbalanced binning, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of coverage or set size. To address this issue, we propose a binning method that leverages input transformations to sort examples by difficulty, followed by uniform-mass binning. Building on this binning, we introduce two metrics to better evaluate adaptiveness. These metrics provide more reliable estimates of coverage rate violation and average set size due to balanced binning, leading to more accurate adaptivity assessment. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed metric correlates more strongly with the desired adaptiveness property compared to existing ones. Furthermore, motivated by our findings, we propose a new adaptive prediction set algorithm that groups examples by estimated difficulty and applies group-conditional conformal prediction. This allows us to determine appropriate thresholds for each group. Experimental results on both (a) an Image Classification (ImageNet) (b) a medical task (visual acuity prediction) show that our method outperforms existing approaches according to the new metrics.

While large language models (LLMs) have recently made tremendous progress towards solving challenging AI problems, they have done so at increasingly steep computational and API costs. We propose a novel strategy where we combine multiple LLM models with varying cost/accuracy tradeoffs in an agentic manner, where models and tools are run in sequence as determined by an orchestration model to minimize cost subject to a user-specified level of reliability; this constraint is formalized using conformal prediction to provide guarantees. To solve this problem, we propose Conformal Constrained Policy Optimization (CCPO), a training paradigm that integrates constrained policy optimization with off-policy reinforcement learning and recent advances in online conformal prediction. CCPO jointly optimizes a cost-aware policy (score function) and an adaptive threshold. Across two multi-hop question answering benchmarks, CCPO achieves up to a 30% cost reduction compared to other cost-aware baselines and LLM-guided methods without compromising reliability. Our approach provides a principled and practical framework for deploying LLM agents that are significantly more cost-effective while maintaining reliability.

A standard assumption in supervised learning is that the training data and test data are from the same distribution. However, this assumption often fails to hold in practice, which can cause the learned model to perform poorly. We consider the problem of detecting covariate shift, where the covariate distribution shifts but the conditional distribution of labels given covariates remains the same. This problem can naturally be solved using a two-sample test{—}i.e., test whether the current test distribution of covariates equals the training distribution of covariates. Our algorithm builds on classifier tests, which train a discriminator to distinguish train and test covariates, and then use the accuracy of this discriminator as a test statistic. A key challenge is that classifier tests assume given a fixed set of test covariates. In practice, test covariates often arrive sequentially over time{—}e.g., a self-driving car observes a stream of images while driving. Furthermore, covariate shift can occur multiple times{—}i.e., shift and then shift back later or gradually shift over time. To address these challenges, our algorithm trains the discriminator online. Additionally, it evaluates test accuracy using each new covariate before taking a gradient step; this strategy avoids constructing a held-out test set, which can improve sample efficiency. We prove that this optimization preserves the correctness{—}i.e., our algorithm achieves a desired bound on the false positive rate. In our experiments, we show that our algorithm efficiently detects covariate shifts on multiple datasets{—}ImageNet, IWildCam, and Py150.

Providing reliable model uncertainty estimates is imperative to enabling robust decision making by autonomous agents and humans alike. While recently there have been significant advances in confidence calibration for trained models, examples with poor calibration persist in most calibrated models. Consequently, multiple techniques have been proposed that leverage label-invariant transformations of the input (i.e., an input manifold) to improve worst-case confidence calibration. However, manifold-based confidence calibration techniques generally do not scale and/or require expensive retraining when applied to models with large input spaces (e.g., ImageNet). In this paper, we present the recursive lossy label-invariant calibration (ReCal) technique that leverages label-invariant transformations of the input that induce a loss of discriminatory information to recursively group (and calibrate) inputs – without requiring model retraining. We show that ReCal outperforms other calibration methods on multiple datasets, especially, on large-scale datasets such as ImageNet.