Bayesian networks play a crucial role in various domains for unsupervised feature extraction and data interpretation. The Poisson gamma belief networks (PGBNs), as a type of Bayesian networks, have shown promise in analyzing high-dimensional count data. However, PGBNs encounter significant challenges when applied to sparse data, particularly in achieving accurate feature extraction and avoiding overfitting during missing value prediction. In this paper, we propose the sparse Poisson gamma belief networks (SPGBNs), a Bayesian network model designed to address these limitations. By incorporating sparse graph-structured priors over the weight matrices between adjacent layers, the proposed SPGBNs effectively capture the inherent sparsity and graph structures of latent features. Meanwhile, SPGBNs demonstrate superior generalization on missing data prediction and enable more stable extraction of meaningful latent features compared to existing approaches. Additionally, we develop an efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm that significantly improves the training stability and computational efficiency of SPGBNs. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of our approach.

Despite significant progress in text anomaly detection for web applications such as spam filtering and fake news detection, existing methods are fundamentally limited to document-level analysis, unable to identify which specific parts of a text are anomalous. We introduce token-level anomaly detection, a novel paradigm that enables fine-grained localization of anomalies within text. We formally define text anomalies at both document and token-levels, and propose a unified detection framework that operates across multiple levels. To facilitate research in this direction, we collect and annotate three benchmark datasets spanning spam, reviews and grammar errors with token-level labels. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves better performance than other 6 baselines, opening new possibilities for precise anomaly localization in text. All the codes and data are publicly available on https://github.com/charles-cao/TokenCore.

A novel dynamic network model is proposed to capture evolving latent communities within temporal networks. To achieve this, we decompose each observed dynamic edge between vertices using a Poisson-gamma edge partition model, assigning each vertex to one or more latent communities through nonnegative vertex-community memberships. Specifically, hierarchical transition kernels are employed to model the interactions between these latent communities. A hierarchical graph prior is placed on the transition structure of the latent communities, allowing us to model how they evolve and interact over time. Consequently, our dynamic network model enables the inferred community structure to merge, split, and interact with one another, providing a comprehensive understanding of complex network dynamics. Experiments on various real-world network datasets demonstrate that the proposed model not only effectively uncovers interpretable latent structures but also surpasses other state-of-the-art dynamic network models in the tasks of link prediction and community detection.

Information popularity prediction is important yet challenging in various domains, including viral marketing and news recommendations. The key to accurately predicting information popularity lies in subtly modeling the underlying temporal information diffusion process behind observed events of an information cascade, such as the retweets of a tweet. To this end, most existing methods either adopt recurrent networks to capture the temporal dynamics from the first to the last observed event or develop a statistical model based on self-exciting point processes to make predictions. However, information diffusion is intrinsically a complex continuous-time process with irregularly observed discrete events, which is oversimplified using recurrent networks as they fail to capture the irregular time intervals between events, or using self-exciting point processes as they lack flexibility to capture the complex diffusion process. Against this background, we propose ConCat, modeling theContinuous-time dynamics ofCascades for information popularity prediction. On the one hand, it leverages neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to model irregular events of a cascade in continuous time based on the cascade graph and sequential event information. On the other hand, it considers cascade events as neural temporal point processes (TPPs) parameterized by a conditional intensity function which can also benefit the popularity prediction task. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate ConCat on three real-world datasets. Results show that ConCat achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines, yielding 2.3%-33.2% improvement over the best-performing baselines across the three datasets.

Continuously observed event occurrences, often exhibit self and mutually exciting effects, which can be well modeled using temporal point processes. Beyond that, these event dynamics may also change over time, with certain periodic trends. We propose a novel variational autoencoder to capture such a mixture of temporal dynamics. More specifically, the whole time interval of the input sequence is partitioned into a set of sub intervals. The event dynamics are assumed to be stationary within each subinterval, but could be changing across those subintervals. In particular, we use a sequential latent variable model to learn a dependency graph between the observed dimensions, for each subinterval. The model predicts the future event times, by using the learned dependency graph to remove the non contributing influences of past events. By doing so, the proposed model demonstrates its higher accuracy in predicting inter event times and event types for several real world event sequences, compared with existing state of the art neural point processes.

We study the problem of estimating latent population flows from aggregated count data. This problem arises when individual trajectories are not available due to privacy issues or measurement fidelity. Instead, the aggregated observations are measured over discrete-time points, for estimating the transition flows among states. Most related studies tackle the problems by learning the transition parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov process. Nonetheless, most real-world population flows can be influenced by various uncertainties such as traffic jam and weather conditions. Thus, in many cases, a time-homogeneous Markov model is a poor approximation of the much more complex population flows. To circumvent this difficulty, we resort to a multi-marginal optimal transport (MOT) formulation that can naturally represent aggregated observations by constrained marginals, and encode transition matrices by the cost functions. In particular, we propose to learn the time-varying transition matrices by learning the cost matrices of the MOT formulation, and to estimate latent transition flows simultaneously. The experiments on both synthetic and real data, demonstrate the improved accuracy of the proposed algorithms in estimating transition flows, compared against the related methods.

We propose a novel probabilistic framework to model continuously generated interaction events data. Our goal is to infer the \emph{implicit} community structure underlying the temporal interactions among entities, and also to exploit how the latent structure influence their interaction dynamics. To this end, we model the reciprocating interactions between individuals using mutually-exciting Hawkes processes. The base rate of the Hawkes process for each pair of individuals is built upon the latent representations inferred using the hierarchical gamma process edge partition model (HGaP-EPM). In particular, our model allows the interaction dynamics between each pair of individuals to be modulated by their respective affiliated communities.Moreover, our model can flexibly incorporate the auxiliary individuals’ attributes, or covariates associated with interaction events. Efficient Gibbs sampling and Expectation-Maximization algorithms are developed to perform inference via Pólya-Gamma data augmentation strategy. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model not only achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods, but also discovers interpretable latent structure behind the observed temporal interactions.

We present a probabilistic model for learning from dynamic relational data, wherein the observed interactions among networked nodes are modeled via the Bernoulli Poisson link function, and the underlying network structure are characterized by nonnegative latent node-group memberships, which are assumed to be gamma distributed. The latent memberships evolve according to Markov processes.The optimal number of latent groups can be determined by data itself. The computational complexity of our method scales with the number of non-zero links, which makes it scalable to large sparse dynamic relational data. We present batch and online Gibbs sampling algorithms to perform model inference. Finally, we demonstrate the model's performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Group factor analysis (GFA) methods have been widely used to infer the common structure and the group-specific signals from multiple related datasets in various fields including systems biology and neuroimaging. To date, most available GFA models require Gibbs sampling or slice sampling to perform inference, which prevents the practical application of GFA to large-scale data. In this paper we present an efficient collapsed variational inference (CVI) algorithm for the nonparametric Bayesian group factor analysis (NGFA) model built upon an hierarchical beta Bernoulli process. Our CVI algorithm proceeds by marginalizing out the group-specific beta process parameters, and then approximating the true posterior in the collapsed space using mean field methods. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our CVI algorithm for the NGFA compared with state-of-the-art GFA methods.

A probabilistic framework based on the covariate-dependent relational gamma process is developed to analyze relational data arising from longitudinal networks. The proposed framework characterizes networked nodes by nonnegative node-group memberships, which allow each node to belong to multiple latent groups simultaneously, and encodes edge probabilities between each pair of nodes using a Bernoulli Poisson link to the embedded latent space. Within the latent space, our framework models the birth and death dynamics of individual groups via a thinning function. Our framework also captures the evolution of individual node-group memberships over time using gamma Markov processes. Exploiting the recent advances in data augmentation and marginalization techniques, a simple and efficient Gibbs sampler is proposed for posterior computation. Experimental results on a simulation study and three real-world temporal network data sets demonstrate the model’s capability, competitive performance and scalability compared to state-of-the-art methods.