Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at a given time represents only a small fraction of what is needed to predict future states, either due to measurement uncertainty or because only a small fraction of the state can be observed. This is true for example in solar physics, where we can observe the Sun’s surface and atmosphere, but its evolution is driven by internal processes for which we lack direct measurements. In this paper, we tackle the probabilistic prediction of partially observable, long-memory dynamical systems, with applications to solar dynamics and the evolution of active regions. We show that standard inference schemes, such as autoregressive rollouts, fail to capture long-range dependencies in the data, largely because they do not integrate past information effectively. To overcome this, we propose a multiscale inference scheme for diffusion models, tailored to physical processes. Our method generates trajectories that are temporally fine-grained near the present and coarser as we move farther away, which enables capturing long-range temporal dependencies without increasing computational cost. When integrated into a diffusion model, we show that our inference scheme significantly reduces the bias of the predicted distributions and improves rollout stability.

While foundation models have shown promise across a variety of fields, astronomy lacks a unified framework for joint modeling across its highly diverse data modalities. In this paper, we present AION-1, the first large-scale multimodal foundation family of models for astronomy. AION-1 enables arbitrary transformations between heterogeneous data types using a two-stage architecture: modality-specific tokenization followed by transformer-based masked modeling of cross-modal token sequences. Trained on over 200M astronomical objects, AION-1 demonstrates strong performance across regression, classification, generation, and object retrieval tasks. Beyond astronomy, AION-1 provides a scalable blueprint for multimodal scientific foundation models that can seamlessly integrate heterogeneous combinations of real-world observations. Our model release is entirely open source, including the dataset, training script, and weights.

The steep computational cost of diffusion models at inference hinders their use as fast physics emulators. In the context of image and video generation, this computational drawback has been addressed by generating in the latent space of an autoencoder instead of the pixel space. In this work, we investigate whether a similar strategy can be effectively applied to the emulation of dynamical systems and at what cost. We find that the accuracy of latent-space emulation is surprisingly robust to a wide range of compression rates (up to 1000x). We also show that diffusion-based emulators are consistently more accurate than non-generative counterparts and compensate for uncertainty in their predictions with greater diversity. Finally, we cover practical design choices, spanning from architectures to optimizers, that we found critical to train latent-space emulators.

Diffusion-based generative models represent the current state-of-the-art for image generation. However, standard diffusion models are based on Euclidean geometry and do not translate directly to manifold-valued data. In this work, we develop extensions of both score-based generative models (SGMs) and Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) to the Lie group of 3D rotations, SO(3). SO(3) is of particular interest in many disciplines such as robotics, biochemistry and astronomy/cosmology science. Contrary to more general Riemannian manifolds, SO(3) admits a tractable solution to heat diffusion, and allows us to implement efficient training of diffusion models. We apply both SO(3) DDPMs and SGMs to synthetic densities on SO(3) and demonstrate state-of-the-art results. Additionally, we demonstrate the practicality of our model on pose estimation tasks and in predicting correlated galaxy orientations for astrophysics/cosmology.

We present the Multimodal Universe, a large-scale multimodal dataset of scientific astronomical data, compiled specifically to facilitate machine learning research. Overall, our dataset contains hundreds of millions of astronomical observations, constituting 100TB of multi-channel and hyper-spectral images, spectra, multivariate time series, as well as a wide variety of associated scientific measurements and metadata. In addition, we include a range of benchmark tasks representative of standard practices for machine learning methods in astrophysics. This massive dataset will enable the development of large multi-modal models specifically targeted towards scientific applications. All codes used to compile the dataset, and a description of how to access the data is available at https://github.com/MultimodalUniverse/MultimodalUniverse

We introduce multiple physics pretraining (MPP), an autoregressive task-agnostic pretraining approach for physical surrogate modeling of spatiotemporal systems with transformers. In MPP, rather than training one model on a specific physical system, we train a backbone model to predict the dynamics of multiple heterogeneous physical systems simultaneously in order to learn features that are broadly useful across systems and facilitate transfer. In order to learn effectively in this setting, we introduce a shared embedding and normalization strategy that projects the fields of multiple systems into a shared embedding space. We validate the efficacy of our approach on both pretraining and downstream tasks over a broad fluid mechanics-oriented benchmark. We show that a single MPP-pretrained transformer is able to match or outperform task-specific baselines on all pretraining sub-tasks without the need for finetuning. For downstream tasks, we demonstrate that finetuning MPP-trained models results in more accurate predictions across multiple time-steps on systems with previously unseen physical components or higher dimensional systems compared to training from scratch or finetuning pretrained video foundation models. We open-source our code and model weights trained at multiple scales for reproducibility.

Diffusion models recently proved to be remarkable priors for Bayesian inverse problems. However, training these models typically requires access to large amounts of clean data, which could prove difficult in some settings. In this work, we present a novel method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm for training diffusion models from incomplete and noisy observations only. Unlike previous works, our method leads to proper diffusion models, which is crucial for downstream tasks. As part of our method, we propose and motivate an improved posterior sampling scheme for unconditional diffusion models. We present empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our method.

Recent deep-learning models have achieved impressive prediction performance, but often sacrifice interpretability and computational efficiency. Interpretability is crucial in many disciplines, such as science and medicine, where models must be carefully vetted or where interpretation is the goal itself. Moreover, interpretable models are concise and often yield computational efficiency. Here, we propose adaptive wavelet distillation (AWD), a method which aims to distill information from a trained neural network into a wavelet transform. Specifically, AWD penalizes feature attributions of a neural network in the wavelet domain to learn an effective multi-resolution wavelet transform. The resulting model is highly predictive, concise, computationally efficient, and has properties (such as a multi-scale structure) which make it easy to interpret. In close collaboration with domain experts, we showcase how AWD addresses challenges in two real-world settings: cosmological parameter inference and molecular-partner prediction. In both cases, AWD yields a scientifically interpretable and concise model which gives predictive performance better than state-of-the-art neural networks. Moreover, AWD identifies predictive features that are scientifically meaningful in the context of respective domains. All code and models are released in a full-fledged package available on Github.

Understanding the nature of dark energy, the mysterious force driving the accelerated expansion of the Universe, is a major challenge of modern cosmology. The next generation of cosmological surveys, specifically designed to address this issue, rely on accurate measurements of the apparent shapes of distant galaxies. However, shape measurement methods suffer from various unavoidable biases and therefore will rely on a precise calibration to meet the accuracy requirements of the science analysis. This calibration process remains an open challenge as it requires large sets of high quality galaxy images. To this end, we study the application of deep conditional generative models in generating realistic galaxy images. In particular we consider variations on conditional variational autoencoder and introduce a new adversarial objective for training of conditional generative networks. Our results suggest a reliable alternative to the acquisition of expensive high quality observations for generating the calibration data needed by the next generation of cosmological surveys.