Xiang Gao, Yuguang Yao, Qi Zhang, Kaiwen Dong, Avinash Baidya, Ruocheng Guo, Hilaf Hasson, Kamalika Das. Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2026.

Although black-box models can accurately predict outcomes such as weather patterns, they often lack transparency, making it challenging to extract meaningful insights (such as which atmospheric conditions signal future rainfall). Model explanations attempt to identify the essential features of a model, but these explanations can be inconsistent: two near-optimal models may admit vastly different explanations. In this paper, we propose a solution to this problem by constructing uncertainty sets for explanations of the optimal model(s) in both frequentist and Bayesian settings. Our uncertainty sets are guaranteed to include the explanation of the optimal model with high probability, even though this model is unknown. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in both synthetic and real-world experiments, illustrating how our uncertainty sets can be used to calibrate trust in model explanations.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Time series data are ubiquitous, and is one of the fastest growing and richest types of data. Recent advances in sensing technologies has resulted in a rapid growth in the size and complexity of time series archives. This demands development of new tools and solutions. The goals of this workshop are to: (1) highlight the significant challenges that underpin learning and mining from time series data (e.g. irregular sampling, spatiotemporal structure, uncertainty quantification), (2) discuss recent algorithmic, theoretical, statistical, or systems-based developments for tackling these problems, and (3) exploring new frontiers in time series analysis and their connections with important topics such as knowledge representation, reasoning, control, and business intelligence. In summary, our workshop will focus on both the theoretical and practical aspects of time series data analysis and will provide a platform for researchers and practitioners from both academia and industry to discuss potential research directions, key technical issues, and present solutions to tackle related issues in practical applications. We will invite researchers and practitioners from the related areas of AI, machine learning, data science, statistics, and many others to contribute to this workshop.

Large-scale time series panels have become ubiquitous over the last years in areas such as retail, operational metrics, IoT, and medical domain (to name only a few). This has resulted in a need for forecasting techniques that effectively leverage all available data by learning across all time series in each panel. Among the desirable properties of forecasting techniques, being able to generate probabilistic predictions ranks among the top. In this paper, we therefore present Level Set Forecaster (LSF), a simple yet effective general approach to transform a point estimator into a probabilistic one. By recognizing the connection of our algorithm to random forests (RFs) and quantile regression forests (QRFs), we are able to prove consistency guarantees of our approach under mild assumptions on the underlying point estimator. As a byproduct, we prove the first consistency results for QRFs under the CART-splitting criterion. Empirical experiments show that our approach, equipped with tree-based models as the point estimator, rivals state-of-the-art deep learning models in terms of forecasting accuracy.

This paper tackles the modelling of large, complex and multivariate time series panels in a probabilistic setting. To this extent, we present a novel approach reconciling classical state space models with deep learning methods. By augmenting state space models with normalizing flows, we mitigate imprecisions stemming from idealized assumptions in state space models. The resulting model is highly flexible while still retaining many of the attractive properties of state space models, e.g., uncertainty and observation errors are properly accounted for, inference is tractable, sampling is efficient, good generalization performance is observed, even in low data regimes. We demonstrate competitiveness against state-of-the-art deep learning methods on the tasks of forecasting real world data and handling varying levels of missing data.