Symbolic execution has emerged as a powerful technique for scaling exact probabilistic inference to languages with more expressive features. But, this expressivity comes at a price: probabilistic programming languages based on symbolic execution are difficult to debug, optimize, and prove correct due to the many intricacies inherent to high-performance symbolic execution strategies. We aim to make it easier to work with probabilistic symbolic executors by developing symbolic sets, a new semantic domain that cleanly captures the notion of computation underlying symbolic execution. Just as a symbolic executor replaces ordinary execution with a lifted semantics, symbolic set theory replaces ordinary set theory with a lifted mathematics: the category of symbolic sets is a Grothendieck topos, which allows type theory to be used as a metalanguage for working with symbolic sets and functions. We prove a metatheorem that shows how a large class of definitional interpreters written in the internal language of symbolic sets are automatically correct for their ordinary set-theoretic interpretations. Using this metatheorem, we give the first full correctness argument for a symbolic probabilistic language with higher-order functions, type-directed state merging, pattern matching, and structural recursion.

Probabilistic inference is fundamentally hard, yet many tasks require optimization on top of inference, which is even harder. We present a new optimization-via-compilation strategy to scalably solve a certain class of such problems. In particular, we introduce a new intermediate representation (IR), binary decision diagrams weighted by a novel notion of branch-and-bound semiring, that enables a scalable branch-and-bound based optimization procedure. This IR automatically factorizes problems through program structure and prunes suboptimal values via a straightforward branch-and-bound style algorithm to find optima. Additionally, the IR is naturally amenable to staged compilation, allowing the programmer to query for optima mid-compilation to inform further executions of the program. We showcase the effectiveness and flexibility of the IR by implementing two performant languages that both compile to it: dappl and pineappl . dappl is a functional language that solves maximum expected utility problems with first-class support for rewards, decision making, and conditioning. pineappl is an imperative language that performs exact probabilistic inference with support for nested marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) optimization via staging.

Exact probabilistic inference is a requirement for many applications of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) such as in high-consequence settings or verification. However, designing and implementing a PPL with scalable high-performance exact inference is difficult: exact inference engines, much like SAT solvers, are intricate low-level programs that are hard to implement. Due to this implementation challenge, PPLs that support scalable exact inference are restrictive and lack many features of general-purpose languages. This paper presents Roulette, the first discrete probabilistic programming language that combines high-performance exact inference with general-purpose language features. Roulette supports a significant subset of Racket, including data structures, first-class functions, surely-terminating recursion, mutable state, modules, and macros, along with probabilistic features such as finitely supported discrete random variables, conditioning, and top-level inference. The key insight is that there is a close connection between exact probabilistic inference and the symbolic evaluation strategy of Rosette. Building on this connection, Roulette generalizes and extends the Rosette solver-aided programming system to reason about probabilistic rather than symbolic quantities. We prove Roulette sound by generalizing a proof of correctness for Rosette to handle probabilities, and demonstrate its scalability and expressivity on a number of examples.

There are many different probabilistic programming languages that are specialized to specific kinds of probabilistic programs. From a usability and scalability perspective, this is undesirable: today, probabilistic programmers are forced up-front to decide which language they want to use and cannot mix-and-match different languages for handling heterogeneous programs. To rectify this, we seek a foundation for sound interoperability for probabilistic programming languages: just as today’s Python programmers can resort to low-level C programming for performance, we argue that probabilistic programmers should be able to freely mix different languages for meeting the demands of heterogeneous probabilistic programming environments. As a first step towards this goal, we introduce Multi PPL, a probabilistic multi-language that enables programmers to interoperate between two different probabilistic programming languages: one that leverages a high-performance exact discrete inference strategy, and one that uses approximate importance sampling. We give a syntax and semantics for Multi PPL, prove soundness of its inference algorithm, and provide empirical evidence that it enables programmers to perform inference on complex heterogeneous probabilistic programs and flexibly exploits the strengths and weaknesses of two languages simultaneously.

Programmatically generating tight differential privacy (DP) bounds is a hard problem. Two core challenges are (1) finding expressive, compact, and efficient encodings of the distributions of DP algorithms, and (2) state space explosion stemming from the multiple quantifiers and relational properties of the DP definition. We address the first challenge by developing a method for tight privacy and accuracy bound synthesis using weighted model counting on binary decision diagrams, a state of the art technique from the artificial intelligence and automated reasoning communities for exactly computing probability distributions. We address the second challenge by developing a framework for leveraging inherent symmetries in DP algorithms. Our solution benefits from ongoing research in probabilistic programming languages, allowing us to succinctly and expressively represent different DP algorithms with approachable language syntax that can be used by non-experts. We provide a detailed case study of our solution on the binary randomized response algorithm. We also evaluate an implementation of our solution using the Dice probabilistic programming language for the randomized response and truncated geometric above threshold algorithms. We compare to prior work on exact DP verification using Markov chain probabilistic model checking and the decision procedure DiPC. Very few existing works consider mechanized analysis of accuracy guarantees for DP algorithms. We additionally provide a detailed analysis using our technique for finding tight accuracy bounds for DP algorithms.

We introduce a new approach to deploying constraint-based content generators that better supports online generation. Constraint-based generators ensure that certain properties hold in each design they output. However, when deployed a general-purpose solver is often required, thus guarantees come with unpredictable search times and little control over sequentially-generated outputs. In this paper, we outline how we can encode design constraints into a compact circuit representation that affords generation without search. These generators yield samples that are distributed uniformly over the space of valid designs. We illustrate our approach with binary decision diagrams (BDDs) in comparison to the traditional approach with answer-set programming (ASP) in two scenarios: a grid-based tile placement scenario inspired by WaveFunctionCollapse, and a playable platformer level design scenario. These compiled design-space models make constraint-based methods easier to deploy by improving on both the running time and diversity of previous constraint-based methods.

Currently, there is a gap between the tools used by probability theorists and those used in formal reasoning about probabilistic programs. On the one hand, a probability theorist decomposes probabilistic state along the simple and natural product of probability spaces. On the other hand, recently developed probabilistic separation logics decompose state via relatively unfamiliar measure-theoretic constructions for computing unions of sigma-algebras and probability measures. We bridge the gap between these two perspectives by showing that these two methods of decomposition are equivalent up to a suitable equivalence of categories. Our main result is a probabilistic analog of the classic equivalence between the category of nominal sets and the Schanuel topos. Through this equivalence, we validate design decisions in prior work on probabilistic separation logic and create new connections to nominal-setlike models of probability.

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are an expressive means for creating and reasoning about probabilistic models. Unfortunately hybrid probabilistic programs that involve both continuous and discrete structures are not well supported by today’s PPLs. In this paper we develop a new approximate inference algorithm for hybrid probabilistic programs that first discretizes the continuous distributions and then performs discrete inference on the resulting program. The key novelty is a form of discretization that we call bit blasting , which uses a binary representation of numbers such that a domain of 2 b discretized points can be succinctly represented as a discrete probabilistic program over poly b Boolean random variables. Surprisingly, we prove that many common continuous distributions can be bit blasted in a manner that incurs no loss of accuracy over an explicit discretization and supports efficient probabilistic inference. We have built a probabilistic programming system for hybrid programs called HyBit , which employs bit blasting followed by discrete probabilistic inference. We empirically demonstrate the benefits of our approach over existing sampling-based and symbolic inference approaches

Distributions on integers are ubiquitous in probabilistic modeling but remain challenging for many of today’s probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). The core challenge comes from discrete structure: many of today’s PPL inference strategies rely on enumeration, sampling, or differentiation in order to scale, which fail for high-dimensional complex discrete distributions involving integers. Our insight is that there is structure in arithmetic that these approaches are not using. We present a binary encoding strategy for discrete distributions that exploits the rich logical structure of integer operations like summation and comparison. We leverage this structured encoding with knowledge compilation to perform exact probabilistic inference, and show that this approach scales to much larger integer distributions with arithmetic.

We present Lilac, a separation logic for reasoning about probabilistic programs where separating conjunction captures probabilistic independence. Inspired by an analogy with mutable state where sampling corresponds to dynamic allocation, we show how probability spaces over a fixed, ambient sample space appear to be the natural analogue of heap fragments, and present a new combining operation on them such that probability spaces behave like heaps and measurability of random variables behaves like ownership. This combining operation forms the basis for our model of separation, and produces a logic with many pleasant properties. In particular, Lilac has a frame rule identical to the ordinary one, and naturally accommodates advanced features like continuous random variables and reasoning about quantitative properties of programs. Then we propose a new modality based on disintegration theory for reasoning about conditional probability. We show how the resulting modal logic validates examples from prior work, and give a formal verification of an intricate weighted sampling algorithm whose correctness depends crucially on conditional independence structure.

Due to the unreliability and limited capacity of existing quantum computer prototypes, quantum circuit simulation continues to be a vital tool for validating next generation quantum computers and for studying variational quantum algorithms, which are among the leading candidates for useful quantum computation. Existing quantum circuit simulators do not address the common traits of variational algorithms, namely: 1) their ability to work with noisy qubits and operations, 2) their repeated execution of the same circuits but with different parameters, and 3) the fact that they sample from circuit final wavefunctions to drive a classical optimization routine. We present a quantum circuit simulation toolchain based on logical abstractions targeted for simulating variational algorithms. Our proposed toolchain encodes quantum amplitudes and noise probabilities in a probabilistic graphical model, and it compiles the circuits to logical formulas that support efficient repeated simulation of and sampling from quantum circuits for different parameters. Compared to state-of-the-art state vector and density matrix quantum circuit simulators, our simulation approach offers greater performance when sampling from noisy circuits with at least eight to 20 qubits and with around 12 operations on each qubit, making the approach ideal for simulating near-term variational quantum algorithms. And for simulating noise-free shallow quantum circuits with 32 qubits, our simulation approach offers a 66× reduction in sampling cost versus quantum circuit simulation techniques based on tensor network contraction.

Abstract We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in probabilistic inference suggest symbolically representing all horizon-length paths through the Markov chain. We ask whether this perspective advances the state-of-the-art in probabilistic model checking. First, we formally describe both approaches in order to highlight their key differences. Then, using these insights we developRubicon, a tool that transpilesPrismmodels to the probabilistic inference tool . Finally, we demonstrate better scalability compared to probabilistic model checkers on selected benchmarks. All together, our results suggest that probabilistic inference is a valuable addition to the probabilistic model checking portfolio, withRubiconas a first step towards integrating both perspectives.

Scaling probabilistic models to large realistic problems and datasets is a key challenge in machine learning. Central to this effort is the development of tractable probabilistic models (TPMs): models whose structure guarantees efficient probabilistic inference algorithms. The current landscape of TPMs is fragmented: there exist various kinds of TPMs with different strengths and weaknesses. Two of the most prominent classes of TPMs are determinantal point processes (DPPs) and probabilistic circuits (PCs). This paper provides the first systematic study of their relationship. We propose a unified analysis and shared language for discussing DPPs and PCs. Then we establish theoretical barriers for the unification of these two families, and prove that there are cases where DPPs have no compact representation as a class of PCs. We close with a perspective on the central problem of unifying these tractable models.

Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are an expressive means of representing and reasoning about probabilistic models. The computational challenge of probabilistic inference remains the primary roadblock for applying PPLs in practice. Inference is fundamentally hard, so there is no one-size-fits all solution. In this work, we target scalable inference for an important class of probabilistic programs: those whose probability distributions are discrete . Discrete distributions are common in many fields, including text analysis, network verification, artificial intelligence, and graph analysis, but they prove to be challenging for existing PPLs. We develop a domain-specific probabilistic programming language called Dice that features a new approach to exact discrete probabilistic program inference. Dice exploits program structure in order to factorize inference, enabling us to perform exact inference on probabilistic programs with hundreds of thousands of random variables. Our key technical contribution is a new reduction from discrete probabilistic programs to weighted model counting (WMC). This reduction separates the structure of the distribution from its parameters, enabling logical reasoning tools to exploit that structure for probabilistic inference. We (1) show how to compositionally reduce Dice inference to WMC, (2) prove this compilation correct with respect to a denotational semantics, (3) empirically demonstrate the performance benefits over prior approaches, and (4) analyze the types of structure that allow Dice to scale to large probabilistic programs.

Probabilistic programming languages are a flexible tool for specifying statistical models, but this flexibility comes at the cost of efficient analysis. It is currently difficult to compactly represent the subtle independence properties of a probabilistic program, and exploit independence properties to decompose inference. Classical graphical model abstractions do capture some properties of the underlying distribution, enabling inference algorithms to operate at the level of the graph topology. However, we observe that graph-based abstractions are often too coarse to capture interesting properties of programs. We propose a form of sound abstraction for probabilistic programs wherein the abstractions are themselves simplified programs. We provide a theoretical foundation for these abstractions, as well as an algorithm to generate them. Experimentally, we also illustrate the practical benefits of our framework as a tool to decompose probabilistic program inference.

This paper presents a method which allows robots to infer a human's hierarchical intent from partially observed RGBD videos by imagining how the human will behave in the future. This capability is critical for creating robots which can interact socially or collaboratively with humans. We represent intent as a novel hierarchical, compositional, and probabilistic And-Or graph structure which describes a relationship between actions and plans. We infer human intent by reverse-engineering a human's decision-making and action planning processes under a Bayesian probabilistic programming framework. We present experiments from a 3D environment which demonstrate that the inferred human intent (1) matches well with human judgment, and (2) provides useful contextual cues for object tracking and action recognition.