The effectiveness of advertising in e-commerce largely depends on the ability of merchants to bid on and win impressions for their targeted users. The bidding procedure is highly complex due to various factors such as market competition, user behavior, and the diverse objectives of advertisers. In this paper we consider the problem at the level of user timelines instead of individual bid requests, manipulating full policies (i.e. pre-defined bidding strategies) and not bid values. In order to optimally allocate policies to users, typical multiple treatments allocation methods solve knapsack-like problems which aim at maximizing an expected value under constraints. In the specific context of online advertising, we argue that optimizing for the probability of success is a more suited objective than expected value maximization, and we introduce the SuccessProbaMax algorithm that aims at finding the policy allocation which is the most likely to outperform a fixed reference policy. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments both on synthetic and real-world data to evaluate its performance. The results demonstrate that our proposed algorithm outperforms conventional expected-value maximization algorithms in terms of success rate.

We consider the dataset valuation problem, that is the problem of quantifying the incremental gain, to some relevant pre-defined utility of a machine learning task, of aggregating an individual dataset to others. The Shapley value is a natural tool to perform dataset valuation due to its formal axiomatic justification, which can be combined with Monte Carlo integration to overcome the computational tractability challenges. Such generic approximation methods, however, remain expensive in some cases. In this paper, we exploit the knowledge about the structure of the dataset valuation problem to devise more efficient Shapley value estimators. We propose a novel approximation, referred to as discrete uniform Shapley, which is expressed as an expectation under a discrete uniform distribution with support of reasonable size. We justify the relevancy of the proposed framework via asymptotic and non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees and illustrate its benefits via an extensive set of numerical experiments.

How can we build and optimize a recommender system that must rapidly fill slates (i.e. banners) of personalized recommendations? The combination of deep learning stacks with fast maximum inner product search (MIPS) algorithms have shown it is possible to deploy flexible models in production that can rapidly deliver personalized recommendations to users. Albeit promising, this methodology is unfortunately not sufficient to build a recommender system which maximizes the reward, e.g. the probability of click. Usually instead a proxy loss is optimized and A/B testing is used to test if the system actually improved performance. This tutorial takes participants through the necessary steps to model the reward and directly optimize the reward of recommendation engines built upon fast search algorithms to produce high-performance reward-optimizing recommender systems.

A large portion of online advertising displays are sold through an auction mechanism called Real Time Bidding (RTB). Each auction corresponds to a display opportunity, for which the competing advertisers need to precisely estimate the economical value in order to bid accordingly. This estimate is typically taken as the advertiser's payoff for the target event -- such as a purchase on the merchant website attributed to this display -- times this event estimated probability. However, this greedy approach is too naive when several displays are shown to the same user. The purpose of the present paper is to discuss how such an estimation should be made when a user has already been shown one or more displays. Intuitively, while a user is more likely to make a purchase if the number of displays increases, the marginal effect of each display is expected to be decreasing. In this work, we first frame this bidding problem with repeated user interactions by using causal models to value each display individually. Then, based on this approach, we introduce a simple rule to improve the value estimate. This change shows both interesting qualitative properties that follow our previous intuition as well as quantitative improvements on a public data set and online in a production environment.