Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel, theoretically justified method called Causal Inference with Attention (CInA), which utilizes multiple unlabeled datasets to perform self-supervised causal learning, and subsequently enables zero-shot causal inference on unseen tasks with new data. This is based on our theoretical results that demonstrate the primal-dual connection between optimal covariate balancing and self-attention, facilitating zero-shot causal inference through the final layer of a trained transformer-type architecture. We demonstrate empirically that CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets, matching or even surpassing traditional per-dataset methodologies. These results provide compelling evidence that our method has the potential to serve as a stepping stone for the development of causal foundation models.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Learning structures between groups of variables from data with missing values is an important task in the real world, yet difficult to solve. One typical scenario is discovering the structure among topics in the education domain to identify learning pathways. Here, the observations are student performances for questions under each topic which contain missing values. However, most existing methods focus on learning structures between a few individual variables from the complete data. In this work, we propose VISL, a novel scalable structure learning approach that can simultaneously infer structures between groups of variables under missing data and perform missing value imputations with deep learning. Particularly, we propose a generative model with a structured latent space and a graph neural network-based architecture, scaling to a large number of variables. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world education data sets. We show improved performances on both imputation and structure learning accuracy compared to popular and recent approaches.

Unsupervised abnormality detection is an appealing approach to identify patterns that are not present in training data without specific annotations for such patterns. In the medical imaging field, methods taking this approach have been proposed to detect lesions. The appeal of this approach stems from the fact that it does not require lesion-specific supervision and can potentially generalize to any sort of abnormal patterns. The principle is to train a generative model on images from healthy individuals to estimate the distribution of images of the normal anatomy, i.e., a normative distribution, and detect lesions as out-of-distribution regions. Restoration-based techniques that modify a given image by taking gradient ascent steps with respect to a posterior distribution composed of a normative distribution and a likelihood term recently yielded state-of-the-art results. However, these methods do not explicitly model ascent directions with respect to the normative distribution, i.e. normative ascent direction, which is essential for successful restoration. In this work, we introduce a novel approach for unsupervised lesion detection by modeling normative ascent directions. We present different modelling options based on the defined ascent directions with local Gaussians. We further extend the proposed method to efficiently utilize 3D information, which has not been explored in most existing works. We experimentally show that the proposed method provides higher accuracy in detection and produces more realistic restored images. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated against baselines on publicly available BRATS and ATLAS stroke lesion datasets; the detection accuracy of the proposed method surpasses the current state-of-the-art results.

In image segmentation, there is often more than one plausible solution for a given input. In medical imaging, for example, experts will often disagree about the exact location of object boundaries. Estimating this inherent uncertainty and predicting multiple plausible hypotheses is of great interest in many applications, yet this ability is lacking in most current deep learning methods. In this paper, we introduce stochastic segmentation networks (SSNs), an efficient probabilistic method for modelling aleatoric uncertainty with any image segmentation network architecture. In contrast to approaches that produce pixel-wise estimates, SSNs model joint distributions over entire label maps and thus can generate multiple spatially coherent hypotheses for a single image. By using a low-rank multivariate normal distribution over the logit space to model the probability of the label map given the image, we obtain a spatially consistent probability distribution that can be efficiently computed by a neural network without any changes to the underlying architecture. We tested our method on the segmentation of real-world medical data, including lung nodules in 2D CT and brain tumours in 3D multimodal MRI scans. SSNs outperform state-of-the-art for modelling correlated uncertainty in ambiguous images while being much simpler, more flexible, and more efficient.

We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise variables - a crucial step for counterfactual inference that is missing from existing deep causal learning methods. Our framework is validated on a synthetic dataset built on MNIST as well as on a real-world medical dataset of brain MRI scans. Our experimental results indicate that we can successfully train deep SCMs that are capable of all three levels of Pearl's ladder of causation: association, intervention, and counterfactuals, giving rise to a powerful new approach for answering causal questions in imaging applications and beyond.

In this paper, we introduce and compare different approaches for incorporating shape prior information into neural network-based image segmentation. Specifically, we introduce the concept of template transformer networks, where a shape template is deformed to match the underlying structure of interest through an end-to-end trained spatial transformer network. This has the advantage of explicitly enforcing shape priors, and this is free of discretization artifacts by providing a soft partial volume segmentation. We also introduce a simple yet effective way of incorporating priors in the state-of-the-art pixel-wise binary classification methods such as fully convolutional networks and U-net. Here, the template shape is given as an additional input channel, incorporating this information significantly reduces false positives. We report results on synthetic data and sub-voxel segmentation of coronary lumen structures in cardiac computed tomography showing the benefit of incorporating priors in neural network-based image segmentation.

One of the main concerns of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is the data inefficiency problem, which stems both from an inability to fully utilize data acquired and from naive exploration strategies. In order to alleviate these problems, we propose a DRL algorithm that aims to improve data efficiency via both the utilization of unrewarded experiences and the exploration strategy by combining ideas from unsupervised auxiliary tasks, intrinsic motivation, and hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL). Our method is based on a simple HRL architecture with a metacontroller and a subcontroller. The subcontroller is intrinsically motivated by the metacontroller to learn to control aspects of the environment, with the intention of giving the agent: 1) a neural representation that is generically useful for tasks that involve manipulation of the environment and 2) the ability to explore the environment in a temporally extended manner through the control of the metacontroller. In this way, we reinterpret the notion of pixel- and feature-control auxiliary tasks as reusable skills that can be learned via an intrinsic reward. We evaluate our method on a number of Atari 2600 games. We found that it outperforms the baseline in several environments and significantly improves performance in one of the hardest games-Montezuma's revenge-for which the ability to utilize sparse data is key. We found that the inclusion of intrinsic reward is crucial for the improvement in the performance and that most of the benefit seems to be derived from the representations learned during training.

Convolutional neural networks have been widely used in medical image segmentation. The amount of training data strongly determines the overall performance. Most approaches are applied for a single imaging modality, e.g., brain MRI. In practice, it is often difficult to acquire sufficient training data of a certain imaging modality. The same anatomical structures, however, may be visible in different modalities such as major organs on abdominal CT and MRI. In this work, we investigate the effectiveness of learning from multiple modalities to improve the segmentation accuracy on each individual modality. We study the feasibility of using a dual-stream encoder-decoder architecture to learn modality-independent, and thus, generalisable and robust features. All of our MRI and CT data are unpaired, which means they are obtained from different subjects and not registered to each other. Experiments show that multi-modal learning can improve overall accuracy over modality-specific training. Results demonstrate that information across modalities can in particular improve performance on varying structures such as the spleen.