When we model a higher order functions, such as learning and memory, we face a difficulty of comparing neural activities with hidden variables that depend on the history of sensory and motor signals and the dynam- ics of the network. Here, we propose novel method for estimating hidden variables of a learning agent, such as connection weights from sequences of observable variables. Bayesian estimation is a method to estimate the posterior probability of hidden variables from observable data sequence using a dynamic model of hidden and observable variables. In this pa- per, we apply particle filter for estimating internal parameters and meta- parameters of a reinforcement learning model. We verified the effective- ness of the method using both artificial data and real animal behavioral data.

We propose a modular reinforcement learning architecture for nonlinear, nonstationary control tasks, which we call multiple model-based reinforcement learning (MMRL). The basic idea is to decompose a complex task into multiple domains in space and time based on the predictability of the environmental dynamics. The system is composed of multiple modules, each of which consists of a state prediction model and a reinforcement learning controller. The "responsibility signal," which is given by the softmax function of the prediction errors, is used to weight the outputs of multiple modules, as well as to gate the learning of the prediction models and the reinforcement learning controllers. We formulate MMRL for both discrete-time, finite-state case and continuous-time, continuous-state case. The performance of MMRL was demonstrated for discrete case in a nonstationary hunting task in a grid world and for continuous case in a nonlinear, nonstationary control task of swinging up a pendulum with variable physical parameters.