Reduction in 30-day readmission rate is an important quality factor for hospitals as it can reduce the overall cost of care and improve patient post-discharge outcomes. While deep-learning-based studies have shown promising empirical results, several limitations exist in prior models for hospital readmission prediction, such as: (a) only patients with certain conditions are considered, (b) do not leverage data temporality, (c) individual admissions are assumed independent of each other, which ignores patient similarity, (d) limited to single modality or single center data. In this study, we propose a multimodal, spatiotemporal graph neural network (MM-STGNN) for prediction of 30-day all-cause hospital readmission, which fuses in-patient multimodal, longitudinal data and models patient similarity using a graph. Using longitudinal chest radiographs and electronic health records from two independent centers, we show that MM-STGNN achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.79 on both datasets. Furthermore, MM-STGNN significantly outperformed the current clinical reference standard, LACE+ (AUROC = 0.61), on the internal dataset. For subset populations of patients with heart disease, our model significantly outperformed baselines, such as gradient-boosting and Long Short-Term Memory models (e.g., AUROC improved by 3.7 points in patients with heart disease). Qualitative interpretability analysis indicated that while patients' primary diagnoses were not explicitly used to train the model, features crucial for model prediction may reflect patients' diagnoses. Our model could be utilized as an additional clinical decision aid during discharge disposition and triaging high-risk patients for closer post-discharge follow-up for potential preventive measures.

Unsustainable fishing practices worldwide pose a major threat to marine resources and ecosystems. Identifying vessels that do not show up in conventional monitoring systems---known as ``dark vessels''---is key to managing and securing the health of marine environments. With the rise of satellite-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imaging and modern machine learning (ML), it is now possible to automate detection of dark vessels day or night, under all-weather conditions. SAR images, however, require a domain-specific treatment and are not widely accessible to the ML community. Maritime objects (vessels and offshore infrastructure) are relatively small and sparse, challenging traditional computer vision approaches. We present the largest labeled dataset for training ML models to detect and characterize vessels and ocean structures in SAR imagery. xView3-SAR consists of nearly 1,000 analysis-ready SAR images from the Sentinel-1 mission that are, on average, 29,400-by-24,400 pixels each. The images are annotated using a combination of automated and manual analysis. Co-located bathymetry and wind state rasters accompany every SAR image. We also provide an overview of the xView3 Computer Vision Challenge, an international competition using xView3-SAR for ship detection and characterization at large scale. We release the data (\href{https://iuu.xview.us/}{https://iuu.xview.us/}) and code (\href{https://github.com/DIUx-xView}{https://github.com/DIUx-xView}) to support ongoing development and evaluation of ML approaches for this important application.

PURPOSE: To compare machine learning methods for classifying mass lesions on mammography images that use predefined image features computed over lesion segmentations to those that leverage segmentation-free representation learning on a standard, public evaluation dataset. METHODS: We apply several classification algorithms to the public Curated Breast Imaging Subset of the Digital Database for Screening Mammography (CBIS-DDSM), in which each image contains a mass lesion. Segmentation-free representation learning techniques for classifying lesions as benign or malignant include both a Bag-of-Visual-Words (BoVW) method and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We compare classification performance of these techniques to that obtained using two different segmentation-dependent approaches from the literature that rely on specific combinations of end classifiers (e.g. linear discriminant analysis, neural networks) and predefined features computed over the lesion segmentation (e.g. spiculation measure, morphological characteristics, intensity metrics). RESULTS: values of 0.73 for a segmentation-free BoVW method, 0.86 for a segmentation-free CNN method, 0.75 for a segmentation-dependent linear discriminant analysis of Rubber-Band Straightening Transform features, and 0.58 for a hybrid rule-based neural network classification using a small number of hand-designed features. CONCLUSIONS: We find that malignancy classification performance on the CBIS-DDSM dataset using segmentation-free BoVW features is comparable to that of the best segmentation-dependent methods we study, but also observe that a common segmentation-free CNN model substantially and significantly outperforms each of these (p < 0.05). These results reinforce recent findings suggesting that representation learning techniques such as BoVW and CNNs are advantageous for mammogram analysis because they do not require lesion segmentation, the quality and specific characteristics of which can vary substantially across datasets. We further observe that segmentation-dependent methods achieve performance levels on CBIS-DDSM inferior to those achieved on the original evaluation datasets reported in the literature. Each of these findings reinforces the need for standardization of datasets, segmentation techniques, and model implementations in performance assessments of automated classifiers for medical imaging.

A popular way to estimate the causal effect of a variable x on y from observational data is to use an instrumental variable (IV): a third variable z that affects y only through x. The more strongly z is associated with x, the more reliable the estimate is, but such strong IVs are difficult to find. Instead, practitioners combine more commonly available IV candidates—which are not necessarily strong, or even valid, IVs—into a single "summary" that is plugged into causal effect estimators in place of an IV. In genetic epidemiology, such approaches are known as allele scores. Allele scores require strong assumptions—independence and validity of all IV candidates—for the resulting estimate to be reliable. To relax these assumptions, we propose Ivy, a new method to combine IV candidates that can handle correlated and invalid IV candidates in a robust manner. Theoretically, we characterize this robustness, its limits, and its impact on the resulting causal estimates. Empirically, Ivy can correctly identify the directionality of known relationships and is robust against false discovery (median effect size <= 0.025) on three real-world datasets with no causal effects, while allele scores return more biased estimates (median effect size >= 0.118).

In real-world classification tasks, each class often comprises multiple finer-grained "subclasses." As the subclass labels are frequently unavailable, models trained using only the coarser-grained class labels often exhibit highly variable performance across different subclasses. This phenomenon, known as hidden stratification, has important consequences for models deployed in safety-critical applications such as medicine. We propose GEORGE, a method to both measure and mitigate hidden stratification even when subclass labels are unknown. We first observe that unlabeled subclasses are often separable in the feature space of deep models, and exploit this fact to estimate subclass labels for the training data via clustering techniques. We then use these approximate subclass labels as a form of noisy supervision in a distributionally robust optimization objective. We theoretically characterize the performance of GEORGE in terms of the worst-case generalization error across any subclass. We empirically validate GEORGE on a mix of real-world and benchmark image classification datasets, and show that our approach boosts worst-case subclass accuracy by up to 15 percentage points compared to standard training techniques, without requiring any information about the subclasses.

As machine learning models continue to increase in complexity, collecting large hand-labeled training sets has become one of the biggest roadblocks in practice. Instead, weaker forms of supervision that provide noisier but cheaper labels are often used. However, these weak supervision sources have diverse and unknown accuracies, may output correlated labels, and may label different tasks or apply at different levels of granularity. We propose a framework for integrating and modeling such weak supervision sources by viewing them as labeling different related sub-tasks of a problem, which we refer to as the multi-task weak supervision setting. We show that by solving a matrix completion-style problem, we can recover the accuracies of these multi-task sources given their dependency structure, but without any labeled data, leading to higher-quality supervision for training an end model. Theoretically, we show that the generalization error of models trained with this approach improves with the number of unlabeled data points, and characterize the scaling with respect to the task and dependency structures. On three fine-grained classification problems, we show that our approach leads to average gains of 20.2 points in accuracy over a traditional supervised approach, 6.8 points over a majority vote baseline, and 4.1 points over a previously proposed weak supervision method that models tasks separately.

Data augmentation is a ubiquitous technique for increasing the size of labeled training sets by leveraging task-specific data transformations that preserve class labels. While it is often easy for domain experts to specify individual transformations, constructing and tuning the more sophisticated compositions typically needed to achieve state-of-the-art results is a time-consuming manual task in practice. We propose a method for automating this process by learning a generative sequence model over user-specified transformation functions using a generative adversarial approach. Our method can make use of arbitrary, non-deterministic transformation functions, is robust to misspecified user input, and is trained on unlabeled data. The learned transformation model can then be used to perform data augmentation for any end discriminative model. In our experiments, we show the efficacy of our approach on both image and text datasets, achieving improvements of 4.0 accuracy points on CIFAR-10, 1.4 F1 points on the ACE relation extraction task, and 3.4 accuracy points when using domain-specific transformation operations on a medical imaging dataset as compared to standard heuristic augmentation approaches.